Game plan

Sebastian Baez v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Every number combines what Sebastian Baez does well with what Alejandro Davidovich Fokina allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Sebastian Baez wins, best of 3 24%90%: 6%–55% · best of 5: 19%

Serve points won 56.0% / 61.4% Sebastian / Alejandro · tour 63.5%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 22%serve 55.8% / 61.7%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. Both were charted enough in the last three seasons, so those carry the most weight. The result is then nudged by Sebastian Baez's record against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +2.5 on serve, +3.9 on return vs expectation (226 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Sebastian	Alejandro
Direction choice	−0.08 ±0.10 better than 34%	−0.06 ±0.06 better than 42%
Shot selection	+0.02 ±0.14 better than 54%	−0.04 ±0.10 better than 48%
Execution	−0.04 ±0.36 better than 66%	−0.44 ±0.30 better than 47%
Points left on the table	2.58 ±0.13 lower than 51%	2.43 ±0.11 lower than 70%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Sebastian Baez +0.79, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina −0.41. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Sebastian Baez serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Sebastian wins	v Alejandro	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	66%	71%	63.3%±4.4	59% ▲
Body	22%	61%	59%	57.0%±7.4	9% ▼
T	32%	59%	74%	58.8%±5.3	32%

Optimal v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: +0.3±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Sebastian wins	v Alejandro	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	30%	60%	71%	57.8%±5.2	17% ▼
Body	19%	62%	61%	60.7%±8.2	32% ▲
T	51%	64%	68%	59.5%±4.9	51%

Optimal v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: +0.1±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +1.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alejandro wins	v Sebastian	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	69%	68%	63.7%±4.4	34% ▼
Body	24%	59%	61%	56.2%±7.2	24%
T	29%	66%	73%	64.0%±5.2	42% ▲

Optimal v Sebastian Baez: +0.5±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alejandro wins	v Sebastian	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	35%	62%	70%	57.9%±4.9	35%
Body	22%	63%	56%	56.2%±7.8	9% ▼
T	43%	65%	73%	66.8%±4.9	56% ▲

Optimal v Sebastian Baez: +0.9±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +5.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Sebastian Baez returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alejandro	Value
FH through the middle	39%	+4.3	+0.6	+1.1	+6.0±1.9
FH down the line	20%	+1.7	+2.2	−0.5	+3.4±3.7
FH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	−0.5	−1.7	−6.5±2.2
FH crosscourt	13%	+5.5	+0.4	−1.4	+4.5±3.6
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.3	+1.3	−2.1	−5.2±2.7

Lean FH through the middle: +4.1±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (679 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alejandro	Value
BH through the middle	47%	+6.4	+0.4	+1.6	+8.5±1.7
BH crosscourt	27%	+8.8	−1.3	+0.5	+7.9±2.6
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	+2.6	+0.3	+7.1±4.3
BH slice through the middle	7%	−4.2	−1.8	−3.2	−9.2±2.5
BH slice crosscourt	5%	+0.5	−2.1	−0.2	−1.7±3.0

Lean BH through the middle: +2.6±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (748 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alejandro	Value
FH through the middle	58%	−3.5	+2.8	−1.1	−1.8±2.3
FH crosscourt	23%	−0.2	−0.4	+1.8	+1.2±3.9
FH down the line	18%	−1.8	+0.7	+1.6	+0.5±4.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.9±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (226 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alejandro	Value
BH through the middle	32%	−2.9	+0.1	−0.8	−3.5±2.0
BH crosscourt	23%	+1.0	−1.1	−0.1	−0.2±2.8
FH inside-out	16%	+1.0	−2.1	+1.6	+0.5±3.4
FH through the middle	13%	−2.9	−0.4	−1.1	−4.4±2.0
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	−2.9	+0.2	−2.9±4.9
FH inside-in	6%	+0.6	−0.4	+1.8	+1.9±3.9

Lean FH inside-in: +3.7±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (566 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sebastian	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.3	+0.4	+2.0	+6.7±1.8
FH down the line	20%	+1.7	−2.5	+2.8	+2.0±3.6
FH crosscourt	15%	+5.5	+0.4	+5.7	+11.6±3.6
FH slice through the middle	15%	−4.2	−0.3	−0.6	−5.2±2.2
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	−0.2	−0.1	−4.5±2.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +7.6±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1084 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sebastian	Value
BH through the middle	42%	+6.4	+2.6	+1.9	+10.8±1.7
BH crosscourt	24%	+8.8	+2.0	+2.2	+13.0±2.6
BH slice through the middle	15%	−4.2	−2.1	+0.4	−5.9±2.3
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	−0.8	+3.5	+6.9±4.4
BH slice crosscourt	5%	+0.5	−3.0	−0.9	−3.4±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.9±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (962 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sebastian	Value
FH through the middle	44%	−3.5	−0.8	−1.2	−5.5±2.7
FH down the line	27%	−1.8	+1.1	+0.7	±0.0±4.6
FH crosscourt	25%	−0.2	−5.7	±0.0	−6.0±4.4
FH slice through the middle	4%	−12.7	−0.9	−0.5	−14.1±1.5

Lean FH down the line: +4.4±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (220 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sebastian	Value
BH through the middle	42%	−2.9	+0.1	+0.1	−2.6±1.9
BH crosscourt	36%	+1.0	+0.1	−0.7	+0.5±2.5
BH down the line	18%	−0.2	−3.4	+0.8	−2.9±4.8
BH slice through the middle	2%	−11.3	+0.1	±0.0	−11.1±1.4
FH inside-out	1%	+1.0	+0.4	+0.7	+2.0±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.2±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (669 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Sebastian Baez

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return +1	+6.6±3.1	+4.6	+2.0
BH to the middle · return	+3.9±1.3	+1.6	+2.3
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.4±1.5	+2.0	+1.5
BH to their backhand · return +1	+3.2±2.2	+2.6	+0.6
FH to the middle · return +1	+3.1±2.1	+2.0	+1.0
FH to the middle · rally	+2.0±1.3	+1.6	+0.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−6.0±4.3	−3.3	−2.7
BH slice to the middle · return	−4.6±2.5	−1.2	−3.3
FH slice to the middle · return +1	−4.0±2.9	−1.7	−2.3
FH slice to their backhand · rally	−3.8±3.7	−2.2	−1.6
BH slice to the middle · rally	−3.5±1.9	−1.4	−2.1

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	+4.1±3.3	−1.3	+5.5
BH to the middle · return	+3.8±1.3	+1.1	+2.7
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+3.7±4.1	+1.7	+1.9
FH to the middle · return +1	+3.6±2.2	+2.4	+1.2
FH to the middle · return	+3.2±1.5	+0.6	+2.5
BH to their backhand · return	+2.0±1.9	±0.0	+2.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−6.1±2.3	−5.3	−0.8
BH slice to the middle · rally	−3.3±2.1	−0.7	−2.5
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.1±1.5	−2.4	−0.7
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.6±1.4	−1.1	−1.5
FH to the middle · rally	−2.4±1.3	−2.4	±0.0

Against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina-like opponents

Sebastian Baez v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	57.8%	39.7%
Players most similar to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2	60.4%	43.2%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Carlos Alcaraz, Fabian Marozsan, Tommy Paul, Alexander Shevchenko, Laslo Djere, Alexandre Muller, Holger Rune, Fabio Fognini, Kei Nishikori, Lukas Rosol. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.