Game plan
Serena Williams v Maria Sharapova
Every number combines what Serena Williams does well with what Maria Sharapova allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Serena Williams's record against Maria Sharapova's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −2.6 on serve, −2.9 on return vs expectation (1108 points); head-to-head: +3.7 on serve, +4.9 on return vs expectation (1618 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Serena | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | +0.34 ±0.04 better than 97% | +0.20 ±0.04 better than 85% |
| Shot selection | +0.47 ±0.05 better than 93% | +0.35 ±0.06 better than 83% |
| Execution | −0.04 ±0.27 better than 59% | −0.22 ±0.24 better than 47% |
| Points left on the table | 2.20 ±0.07 lower than 94% | 2.22 ±0.05 lower than 92% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Serena Williams serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Serena wins | v Maria | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 50% | 70% | 62% | 66.4%±3.0 | 43% ▼ |
| Body | 8% | 62% | 55% | 59.9%±5.6 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 42% | 79% | 68% | 79.3%±2.7 | 57% ▲ |
Optimal v Maria Sharapova: +0.6±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +8.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Serena wins | v Maria | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 45% | 75% | 67% | 76.2%±2.9 | 60% ▲ |
| Body | 6% | 60% | 54% | 57.4%±6.3 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 49% | 70% | 64% | 68.9%±3.0 | 40% ▼ |
Optimal v Maria Sharapova: +0.6±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +4.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Maria Sharapova serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Maria wins | v Serena | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 48% | 69% | 65% | 68.0%±3.0 | 63% ▲ |
| Body | 16% | 60% | 53% | 56.0%±4.6 | 1% ▼ |
| T | 36% | 74% | 66% | 71.6%±3.2 | 36% |
Optimal v Serena Williams: +1.3±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Maria wins | v Serena | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 33% | 69% | 66% | 69.0%±3.5 | 48% ▲ |
| Body | 10% | 57% | 57% | 57.7%±5.4 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 56% | 68% | 61% | 64.7%±3.0 | 52% ▼ |
Optimal v Serena Williams: +0.4±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Serena Williams returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Maria | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 49% | +4.2 | −2.6 | −0.6 | +0.9±1.3 |
| FH crosscourt | 36% | +5.3 | −1.6 | −1.7 | +2.0±2.2 |
| FH down the line | 11% | +1.5 | −0.4 | +0.8 | +1.9±3.3 |
| BH through the middle | 1% | +5.2 | −3.4 | −0.7 | +1.1±2.2 |
| FH slice through the middle | 1% | −6.7 | −0.7 | −1.5 | −8.9±2.2 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +0.6±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (2166 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Maria | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 48% | +6.0 | +0.3 | −0.7 | +5.6±1.3 |
| BH crosscourt | 33% | +7.7 | +1.3 | +0.3 | +9.4±2.1 |
| BH down the line | 12% | +2.2 | +1.1 | +0.5 | +3.8±3.6 |
| BH slice through the middle | 3% | −6.2 | −4.5 | +0.6 | −10.1±2.3 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 2% | −4.2 | −2.8 | +1.9 | −5.0±3.0 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +3.6±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1939 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Maria | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 43% | +0.5 | −0.5 | −5.5 | −5.5±3.1 |
| FH through the middle | 37% | −3.2 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −3.9±2.1 |
| FH down the line | 18% | −0.6 | +5.3 | +1.7 | +6.4±4.4 |
| BH inside-in | 1% | +2.0 | −1.4 | −0.4 | +0.1±2.8 |
| BH through the middle | 1% | −1.0 | −0.2 | −1.7 | −2.9±1.6 |
Lean FH down the line: +9.1±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (750 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Maria | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 51% | +1.5 | +0.9 | −0.4 | +1.9±2.2 |
| BH through the middle | 30% | −2.6 | −1.8 | −1.7 | −6.1±1.8 |
| BH down the line | 17% | −0.5 | +3.4 | −1.2 | +1.7±4.4 |
| FH inside-in | 1% | +0.7 | +0.7 | −5.5 | −4.1±3.3 |
| FH inside-out | 1% | +1.4 | +0.2 | +1.7 | +3.2±3.1 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +2.6±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (954 returns charted)
Maria Sharapova returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Serena | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 47% | +4.2 | −1.0 | −1.3 | +1.9±1.4 |
| FH crosscourt | 26% | +5.3 | −0.9 | −4.0 | +0.5±2.5 |
| FH down the line | 20% | +1.5 | −0.9 | −1.4 | −0.8±3.0 |
| FH slice through the middle | 4% | −6.7 | −2.2 | +2.1 | −6.8±2.3 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 2% | −6.6 | −4.7 | −2.4 | −13.7±2.7 |
Lean FH through the middle: +1.6±1.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1904 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Serena | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 48% | +6.0 | −1.4 | −1.0 | +3.6±1.4 |
| BH crosscourt | 30% | +7.7 | −2.3 | −0.2 | +5.2±2.3 |
| BH down the line | 13% | +2.2 | +2.8 | −4.1 | +0.8±3.6 |
| BH slice through the middle | 4% | −6.2 | −2.4 | −0.2 | −8.9±2.3 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 2% | −4.2 | −3.5 | −2.8 | −10.5±2.9 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +2.5±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (1509 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Serena | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 42% | −3.2 | +2.0 | −0.9 | −2.1±2.1 |
| FH crosscourt | 31% | +0.5 | ±0.0 | −3.0 | −2.5±3.4 |
| FH down the line | 25% | −0.6 | −2.1 | +0.6 | −2.1±4.2 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 1% | −14.9 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −15.0±2.1 |
| FH slice through the middle | 1% | −15.2 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −15.9±1.8 |
Lean FH down the line: +0.4±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (602 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Serena | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 40% | −2.6 | −1.7 | −0.3 | −4.5±1.6 |
| BH crosscourt | 39% | +1.5 | −0.8 | −0.2 | +0.4±2.2 |
| BH down the line | 13% | −0.5 | +3.1 | −2.1 | +0.4±4.3 |
| FH inside-in | 3% | +0.7 | +1.5 | −3.0 | −0.8±3.9 |
| FH inside-out | 3% | +1.4 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +2.1±3.6 |
Lean FH inside-out: +3.8±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (850 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Serena Williams
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their forehand · serve +1 | +6.7±4.5 | +4.6 | +2.1 |
| BH to their forehand · return | +4.0±4.5 | +5.1 | −1.0 |
| FH to their backhand · return | +3.1±4.0 | +3.6 | −0.5 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | +2.8±3.6 | +2.0 | +0.8 |
| BH to their backhand · return | +1.7±2.4 | +1.6 | ±0.0 |
| FH to the middle · return +1 | +1.4±3.0 | −0.9 | +2.3 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to their forehand · rally | −8.8±4.9 | −6.7 | −2.1 |
| BH to their forehand · return +1 | −6.3±5.0 | +1.1 | −7.4 |
| FH to their forehand · return +1 | −4.7±3.5 | −3.1 | −1.6 |
| BH slice to the middle · return | −4.5±2.8 | −4.9 | +0.4 |
| BH to their forehand · rally | −4.5±3.6 | −1.1 | −3.3 |
Maria Sharapova
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH volley to their backhand · rally | +8.5±8.1 | +2.0 | +6.5 |
| BH slice to the middle · rally | +3.2±3.1 | −0.5 | +3.7 |
| BH to the middle · rally | +2.7±1.9 | +0.7 | +2.0 |
| FH volley to their forehand · rally | +1.9±7.8 | +3.3 | −1.4 |
| FH to their backhand · return | +1.7±3.7 | +0.6 | +1.1 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | +1.7±3.3 | +2.1 | −0.4 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to their forehand · rally | −6.4±4.8 | −2.8 | −3.6 |
| BH to their forehand · rally | −3.6±3.9 | −2.0 | −1.6 |
| FH to their forehand · return | −3.1±3.9 | +0.6 | −3.8 |
| BH to their backhand · return | −2.8±2.7 | −2.4 | −0.3 |
| FH slice to the middle · rally | −2.8±3.6 | −3.5 | +0.7 |
Against Maria Sharapova-like opponents
| Serena Williams v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 62.1% | 45.1% |
| Players most similar to Maria Sharapova | 8 | 60.6% | 39.6% |
| Maria Sharapova (charted head-to-head) | 13 | 64.2% | 47.7% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Naomi Osaka, Anastasia Potapova, Karolina Pliskova, Iga Swiatek, Belinda Bencic, Ekaterina Alexandrova, Rebecca Sramkova, Shuai Zhang, Eugenie Bouchard, Na Li. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.
Charted head-to-head
- Serena Williams v Maria Sharapova US Open R128 · Hard · 26 Aug 2019
- Serena Williams v Maria Sharapova Australian Open QF · Hard · 26 Jan 2016
- Maria Sharapova v Serena Williams Wimbledon SF · Grass · 9 Jul 2015
- Maria Sharapova v Serena Williams Australian Open F · Hard · 31 Jan 2015
- Maria Sharapova v Serena Williams Madrid F · Clay · 12 May 2013
- Serena Williams v Maria Sharapova Miami F · Hard · 31 Mar 2013
- Serena Williams v Maria Sharapova Doha SF · Hard · 16 Feb 2013
- Serena Williams v Maria Sharapova Olympics F · Grass · 4 Aug 2012
- Serena Williams v Maria Sharapova Madrid QF · Clay · 11 May 2012
- Serena Williams v Maria Sharapova Australian Open F · Hard · 27 Jan 2007
- Serena Williams v Maria Sharapova Australian Open SF · Hard · 27 Jan 2005
- Maria Sharapova v Serena Williams Tour Championships F · Hard · 16 Nov 2004
- Maria Sharapova v Serena Williams Wimbledon F · Grass · 3 Jul 2004