Game plan

Stan Wawrinka v Ivan Ljubicic

Every number combines what Stan Wawrinka does well with what Ivan Ljubicic allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Stan Wawrinka wins, best of 3 53%90%: 27%–77% · best of 5: 54%

Serve points won 67.4% / 66.8% Stan / Ivan · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 55%serve 67.1% / 66.1%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Stan Wawrinka's record against Ivan Ljubicic's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +0.6 on serve, −1.3 on return vs expectation (3990 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Stan	Ivan
Direction choice	+0.15 ±0.05 better than 88%	−0.05 ±0.12 better than 44%
Shot selection	−0.72 ±0.08 better than 5%	−0.08 ±0.25 better than 43%
Execution	−0.11 ±0.23 better than 63%	−0.17 ±0.61 better than 59%
Points left on the table	2.40 ±0.08 lower than 74%	2.68 ±0.17 lower than 41%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Stan Wawrinka serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Stan wins	v Ivan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	72%	73%	71.5%±5.2	41% ▼
Body	9%	63%	65%	64.6%±8.9	0% ▼
T	46%	77%	80%	81.7%±4.3	59% ▲

Optimal v Ivan Ljubicic: +0.9±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +6.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Stan wins	v Ivan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	73%	79%	79.3%±4.3	65% ▲
Body	4%	63%	68%	67.8%±11.0	0% ▼
T	44%	73%	77%	77.7%±5.2	35% ▼

Optimal v Ivan Ljubicic: +0.4±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ivan Ljubicic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Ivan wins	v Stan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	71%	73%	71.5%±4.9	39% ▼
Body	7%	66%	66%	68.3%±9.3	0% ▼
T	48%	84%	75%	84.2%±4.0	61% ▲

Optimal v Stan Wawrinka: +0.6±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +6.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Ivan wins	v Stan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	79%	74%	79.8%±4.5	48% ▼
Body	7%	58%	66%	61.1%±10.0	0% ▼
T	39%	77%	73%	78.0%±5.1	52% ▲

Optimal v Stan Wawrinka: +0.6±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Stan Wawrinka returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ivan	Value
FH through the middle	30%	+4.3	−2.6	+1.3	+2.9±2.2
FH slice through the middle	27%	−4.2	+0.7	+0.8	−2.7±1.9
FH crosscourt	15%	+5.5	−0.1	−1.5	+3.9±3.7
FH slice crosscourt	13%	−4.3	+2.3	−1.8	−3.8±2.0
FH down the line	8%	+1.7	−2.6	−1.5	−2.4±4.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.1±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (2553 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ivan	Value
BH slice through the middle	40%	−4.2	±0.0	+2.1	−2.1±1.9
BH slice crosscourt	30%	+0.5	+1.5	−4.3	−2.3±2.4
BH through the middle	12%	+6.4	−3.1	−2.0	+1.3±2.4
BH crosscourt	8%	+8.8	−0.5	−0.8	+7.4±3.2
BH slice down the line	6%	−8.4	+0.4	±0.0	−8.0±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +8.7±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (2669 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ivan	Value
FH through the middle	45%	−3.5	−1.3	±0.0	−4.8±2.4
FH crosscourt	33%	−0.2	−1.8	−1.6	−3.6±3.8
FH down the line	10%	−1.8	−0.5	+0.5	−1.8±4.6
FH slice through the middle	6%	−12.7	+0.5	±0.0	−12.1±1.7
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−12.5	−0.3	±0.0	−12.8±1.9

Lean FH down the line: +2.9±4.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (745 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ivan	Value
BH crosscourt	31%	+1.0	+0.4	−1.0	+0.4±2.5
BH through the middle	28%	−2.9	+0.7	−0.9	−3.2±1.9
BH slice crosscourt	16%	−4.0	−4.1	+0.4	−7.8±2.2
BH slice through the middle	9%	−11.3	−1.7	+2.5	−10.4±2.2
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	−2.1	−4.7	−7.1±4.7
FH inside-in	4%	+0.6	+2.6	−1.6	+1.6±4.3

Lean FH inside-in: +5.2±4.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (1996 returns charted)

Ivan Ljubicic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Stan	Value
FH through the middle	48%	+4.3	−0.4	−1.1	+2.8±2.1
FH crosscourt	25%	+5.5	+4.2	−1.0	+8.8±3.6
FH down the line	24%	+1.7	−2.4	−0.8	−1.5±3.7
FH slice through the middle	3%	−4.2	+0.7	±0.0	−3.5±1.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.7±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (288 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Stan	Value
BH slice through the middle	31%	−4.2	−0.4	+0.7	−3.9±1.9
BH slice crosscourt	21%	+0.5	−0.5	+1.0	+1.1±2.6
BH through the middle	20%	+6.4	+0.2	+0.2	+6.8±2.2
BH crosscourt	14%	+8.8	−1.0	+1.0	+8.9±2.9
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	−3.5	+0.2	+1.0±4.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.8±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (351 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Stan	Value
FH through the middle	40%	−3.5	+0.5	−1.3	−4.2±2.3
FH crosscourt	23%	−0.2	−0.1	−1.0	−1.3±3.6
FH down the line	22%	−1.8	+0.5	−3.9	−5.2±3.7
BH through the middle	15%	+0.1	−0.2	−0.4	−0.5±1.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.9±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (78 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Stan	Value
BH through the middle	36%	−2.9	+0.3	−0.4	−3.0±1.9
BH crosscourt	33%	+1.0	−2.2	−0.2	−1.3±2.5
BH down the line	13%	−0.2	+1.3	−1.0	+0.1±4.0
BH slice crosscourt	12%	−4.0	−0.3	−0.7	−4.9±2.3
BH slice through the middle	6%	−11.3	−0.7	−0.4	−12.4±2.1

Lean BH down the line: +2.9±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (223 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Stan Wawrinka

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	+2.6±3.1	−2.1	+4.7
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.1±1.9	−0.7	+2.8
FH to their forehand · return +1	+2.0±3.2	+0.2	+1.8
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+0.9±2.6	−0.1	+1.0
FH to their forehand · rally	+0.8±1.9	−0.2	+1.0
BH slice to the middle · return	+0.8±1.7	−0.8	+1.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return	−6.4±3.9	−0.2	−6.2
BH to the middle · return	−5.1±1.7	−2.7	−2.4
BH to their backhand · return	−4.6±2.4	−2.7	−1.8
BH slice to their backhand · return	−4.2±2.2	−1.1	−3.1
FH to their backhand · return	−2.7±3.3	−2.0	−0.7

Ivan Ljubicic

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	+3.2±3.6	+4.2	−1.0
BH to their backhand · return +1	+1.1±2.6	+1.9	−0.8
BH to the middle · return +1	+0.8±2.0	+0.9	−0.1
BH slice to their backhand · return	+0.3±2.3	±0.0	+0.3
BH slice to their backhand · rally	±0.0±1.8	+1.6	−1.7
BH slice to their backhand · return +1	±0.0±2.4	+1.2	−1.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−6.5±2.6	−3.2	−3.3
BH to their forehand · rally	−6.4±2.9	−4.3	−2.1
FH to the middle · return +1	−4.9±2.2	−4.9	±0.0
BH to their forehand · return +1	−4.8±4.1	−1.6	−3.2
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−3.9±2.4	−1.2	−2.8

Against Ivan Ljubicic-like opponents

Stan Wawrinka v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	64.7%	34.8%
Players most similar to Ivan Ljubicic	21	64.2%	30.9%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Flavio Cobolli, Benjamin Bonzi, Richard Gasquet, Gregoire Barrere, Roger Federer, Tommy Haas, David Nalbandian, Andrei Pavel, Yevgeny Kafelnikov. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.