Game plan

Stefan Edberg v Carlos Alcaraz

Every number combines what Stefan Edberg does well with what Carlos Alcaraz allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Stefan Edberg wins, best of 3 33%90%: 19%–49% · best of 5: 29%

Serve points won 62.2% / 65.8% Stefan / Carlos · tour 65.7%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 33%serve 62.2% / 65.8%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Stefan Edberg's record against Carlos Alcaraz's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Stefan	Carlos
Direction choice	+0.16 ±0.05 better than 89%	+0.08 ±0.03 better than 77%
Shot selection	+0.79 ±0.06 better than 98%	+0.20 ±0.07 better than 73%
Execution	−0.62 ±0.21 better than 40%	+0.54 ±0.21 better than 85%
Points left on the table	3.93 ±0.11 lower than 5%	2.43 ±0.05 lower than 70%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Stefan Edberg serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Stefan wins	v Carlos	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	75%	66%	69.0%±2.2	42%
Body	20%	69%	61%	66.8%±3.7	33% ▲
T	38%	72%	68%	64.2%±2.4	25% ▼

Optimal v Carlos Alcaraz: +0.7±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Stefan wins	v Carlos	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	72%	67%	66.9%±2.1	68% ▲
Body	15%	65%	58%	60.4%±4.3	15%
T	30%	70%	65%	63.7%±2.7	17% ▼

Optimal v Carlos Alcaraz: +0.3±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Carlos Alcaraz serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Carlos wins	v Stefan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	73%	69%	69.1%±2.1	46%
Body	18%	67%	62%	66.0%±3.6	4% ▼
T	37%	77%	74%	75.7%±2.1	50% ▲

Optimal v Stefan Edberg: +0.3±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Carlos wins	v Stefan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	72%	69%	67.9%±2.2	50%
Body	16%	66%	63%	65.5%±3.9	3% ▼
T	34%	72%	70%	70.6%±2.5	47% ▲

Optimal v Stefan Edberg: +0.3±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Stefan Edberg returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
FH through the middle	45%	+4.3	+0.4	+0.5	+5.1±1.0
FH down the line	31%	+1.7	+5.4	+1.0	+8.1±2.0
FH crosscourt	20%	+5.5	+2.6	+0.8	+8.9±2.1
BH slice through the middle	1%	−1.6	+0.8	−2.8	−3.7±1.9
FH slice through the middle	1%	−4.2	−0.5	−1.5	−6.3±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.3±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (3660 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
BH slice through the middle	32%	−4.2	+1.2	−2.8	−5.8±1.3
BH slice crosscourt	25%	+0.5	+5.2	−0.4	+5.4±1.9
BH through the middle	14%	+6.4	−1.4	+0.4	+5.4±1.3
BH slice down the line	11%	−8.4	+5.0	−1.8	−5.3±2.8
BH crosscourt	9%	+8.8	+1.1	+0.7	+10.5±1.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +9.4±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (4178 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
FH down the line	34%	−1.8	+5.6	−2.0	+1.8±2.9
FH through the middle	32%	−3.5	−0.4	+0.1	−3.8±1.7
FH crosscourt	28%	−0.2	+2.2	−1.0	+0.9±2.9
BH slice through the middle	2%	−6.9	+1.3	−3.6	−9.3±2.2
BH slice inside-in	2%	−2.1	+0.2	−2.1	−4.0±2.7

Lean FH down the line: +2.5±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1191 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
BH slice crosscourt	29%	−4.0	+2.5	−2.1	−3.6±2.0
BH through the middle	17%	−2.9	−0.4	−1.2	−4.4±1.2
BH crosscourt	13%	+1.0	−0.8	−0.2	±0.0±1.7
BH slice through the middle	12%	−11.3	+2.8	−3.6	−12.1±2.1
BH slice down the line	12%	−9.3	+4.3	+0.1	−4.9±3.1
FH inside-in	2%	+0.6	+2.6	−1.0	+2.2±3.7

Lean FH inside-in: +5.9±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (2884 returns charted)

Carlos Alcaraz returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Stefan	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.3	+1.2	−2.2	+3.2±1.0
FH crosscourt	24%	+5.5	+1.3	+0.5	+7.4±2.0
FH down the line	14%	+1.7	+1.2	+3.0	+5.9±2.2
FH slice through the middle	8%	−4.2	+0.2	−0.2	−4.2±2.0
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	+0.8	−1.9	−5.4±3.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.7±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (4205 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Stefan	Value
BH through the middle	40%	+6.4	+1.0	−4.0	+3.5±0.9
BH crosscourt	34%	+8.8	+1.5	+1.4	+11.8±1.3
BH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−2.3	−1.4	−7.9±1.4
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	−0.5	−1.5	+2.2±2.6
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	−1.3	+0.9	+0.2±2.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.2±0.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (4723 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Stefan	Value
FH through the middle	42%	−3.5	−1.0	−2.4	−6.9±1.6
FH crosscourt	36%	−0.2	−0.2	+4.0	+3.5±2.7
FH down the line	17%	−1.8	−1.0	+4.0	+1.3±3.3
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	−0.8	+0.7	−12.7±2.1
FH slice down the line	1%	−9.4	−1.6	−0.3	−11.3±2.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.3±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (1132 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Stefan	Value
BH crosscourt	45%	+1.0	+0.1	+3.7	+4.8±1.3
BH through the middle	27%	−2.9	−2.1	−3.0	−7.9±1.1
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	+1.4	−1.3	−0.1±3.2
FH through the middle	7%	−2.9	±0.0	−2.4	−5.3±1.6
FH inside-in	5%	+0.6	−1.5	+4.0	+3.1±3.3
FH inside-out	4%	+1.0	±0.0	+4.0	+4.9±2.9

Lean FH inside-out: +5.2±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (2787 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Stefan Edberg

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their forehand · serve +1	+10.1±5.9	+8.5	+1.6
BH volley to their backhand · rally	+7.2±6.7	+3.5	+3.6
BH volley to their forehand · serve +1	+5.5±5.0	+8.5	−3.0
BH slice to their backhand · return +1	+5.4±3.4	+2.5	+2.9
FH to their backhand · return +1	+4.8±4.6	+5.1	−0.4
FH to their backhand · return	+4.7±3.7	+7.3	−2.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return +1	−7.3±3.0	−6.1	−1.2
FH volley to their backhand · rally	−6.1±6.8	−4.6	−1.4
BH to the middle · rally	−5.7±2.4	−4.7	−1.0
FH to their forehand · rally	−5.3±3.7	−3.4	−2.0
BH slice to the middle · rally	−5.2±2.7	−0.3	−4.9

Carlos Alcaraz

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to their backhand · rally	+9.0±6.8	+3.3	+5.7
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+8.8±7.0	+7.4	+1.4
BH slice to their backhand · serve +1	+8.6±3.7	+0.3	+8.4
Smash to their forehand · rally	+6.1±5.4	+5.3	+0.8
BH to their backhand · return	+5.9±2.6	+0.9	+5.1
BH to their backhand · rally	+5.9±3.0	+0.6	+5.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return +1	−6.5±3.1	+1.1	−7.6
FH to the middle · return +1	−5.5±3.4	−0.4	−5.1
BH slice to the middle · return	−5.3±2.7	−2.0	−3.3
BH slice to their forehand · return +1	−4.9±4.6	−1.1	−3.8
BH slice to their backhand · return +1	−4.4±3.5	+1.1	−5.5

Against Carlos Alcaraz-like opponents

Stefan Edberg v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	64.9%	37.6%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Ben Shelton, Fabian Marozsan, Tallon Griekspoor, Alejandro Tabilo, Pablo Carreno Busta, Zizou Bergs, Lorenzo Sonego, Francisco Cerundolo, Luca Nardi. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.