Game plan

Tommy Haas v Feliciano Lopez

Every number combines what Tommy Haas does well with what Feliciano Lopez allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Tommy Haas wins, best of 3 72%90%: 59%–82% · best of 5: 76%

Serve points won 69.8% / 65.0% Tommy / Feliciano · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 64%serve 68.4% / 65.4%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Tommy Haas's record against Feliciano Lopez's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +3.3 on serve, +0.8 on return vs expectation (2158 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Tommy	Feliciano
Direction choice	+0.12 ±0.07 better than 84%	−0.05 ±0.07 better than 44%
Shot selection	−0.59 ±0.12 better than 9%	−0.69 ±0.13 better than 6%
Execution	−0.02 ±0.38 better than 67%	−2.05 ±0.46 better than 3%
Points left on the table	2.57 ±0.14 lower than 52%	3.52 ±0.13 lower than 8%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Tommy Haas serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Tommy wins	v Feliciano	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	72%	76%	75.6%±3.9	48% ▲
Body	4%	62%	68%	66.5%±9.5	0% ▼
T	57%	69%	81%	76.4%±3.9	52% ▼

Optimal v Feliciano Lopez: +0.3±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +0.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Tommy wins	v Feliciano	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	73%	82%	82.4%±3.3	66% ▲
Body	6%	57%	68%	62.5%±9.9	0% ▼
T	41%	66%	75%	69.7%±4.7	34% ▼

Optimal v Feliciano Lopez: +1.4±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +6.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Feliciano Lopez serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Feliciano wins	v Tommy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	80%	72%	79.3%±4.0	38% ▼
Body	11%	69%	63%	68.4%±7.9	0% ▼
T	49%	74%	77%	76.2%±3.9	62% ▲

Optimal v Tommy Haas: +0.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Feliciano wins	v Tommy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	80%	79%	84.9%±3.0	62% ▲
Body	9%	69%	67%	72.4%±8.6	0% ▼
T	42%	82%	75%	84.1%±3.5	38% ▼

Optimal v Tommy Haas: +0.9±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +1.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Tommy Haas returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Feliciano	Value
FH through the middle	42%	+4.3	+0.8	−4.8	+0.3±2.2
FH crosscourt	22%	+5.5	−0.4	+0.1	+5.2±3.8
FH down the line	17%	+1.7	+1.4	−5.2	−2.1±4.2
FH slice through the middle	12%	−4.2	+3.3	−3.1	−4.0±2.2
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	+1.0	−1.8	−5.1±3.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.3±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (729 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Feliciano	Value
BH slice through the middle	38%	−4.2	+3.4	−1.7	−2.4±1.9
BH slice crosscourt	22%	+0.5	+4.2	+1.3	+6.0±2.8
BH through the middle	15%	+6.4	+3.0	−0.4	+9.1±2.3
BH slice down the line	9%	−8.4	+3.5	−5.7	−10.6±3.4
BH crosscourt	8%	+8.8	+2.1	+3.9	+14.8±3.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +12.8±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (754 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Feliciano	Value
FH through the middle	47%	−3.5	+1.2	−1.3	−3.5±2.4
FH crosscourt	25%	−0.2	−2.8	+0.3	−2.8±4.3
FH down the line	23%	−1.8	−1.3	−5.0	−8.0±4.7
FH slice through the middle	5%	−12.7	+1.3	+0.2	−11.1±2.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.9±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (204 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Feliciano	Value
BH through the middle	28%	−2.9	−1.1	−0.7	−4.7±1.8
BH crosscourt	23%	+1.0	+0.6	−3.6	−2.0±2.7
BH slice crosscourt	20%	−4.0	+0.5	−0.1	−3.7±2.5
BH slice through the middle	13%	−11.3	−1.2	−2.3	−14.8±2.4
BH down the line	12%	−0.2	+1.5	−1.8	−0.5±4.6

Lean BH down the line: +4.4±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (585 returns charted)

Feliciano Lopez returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tommy	Value
FH through the middle	39%	+4.3	−2.1	+0.2	+2.4±2.1
FH crosscourt	31%	+5.5	−0.8	−1.0	+3.7±3.4
FH slice through the middle	13%	−4.2	+0.7	+0.7	−2.9±2.3
FH down the line	10%	+1.7	−5.6	+2.5	−1.4±4.3
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.3	+2.1	+0.7	−1.6±2.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.3±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (789 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tommy	Value
BH slice through the middle	45%	−4.2	±0.0	+2.3	−1.9±1.7
BH slice crosscourt	24%	+0.5	−4.0	+1.4	−2.1±2.7
BH through the middle	11%	+6.4	−1.1	+0.8	+6.2±2.4
BH slice down the line	10%	−8.4	+2.4	+2.5	−3.5±3.1
BH crosscourt	5%	+8.8	−7.2	+0.4	+2.0±3.6
BH down the line	4%	+4.2	−0.4	+3.3	+7.1±4.2

Lean BH down the line: +7.7±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1039 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tommy	Value
FH through the middle	49%	−3.5	−2.4	+1.4	−4.5±2.4
FH crosscourt	32%	−0.2	−2.9	−3.0	−6.2±4.1
FH down the line	13%	−1.8	−4.7	−0.8	−7.3±4.7
FH slice through the middle	4%	−12.7	−1.6	±0.0	−14.3±1.3
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−12.5	+0.3	±0.0	−12.2±1.3

Lean FH through the middle: +1.4±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (325 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tommy	Value
BH slice through the middle	34%	−11.3	+0.7	−0.8	−11.4±2.2
BH slice crosscourt	20%	−4.0	−3.5	+2.6	−4.9±2.4
BH through the middle	17%	−2.9	−1.8	+1.0	−3.7±2.2
BH crosscourt	9%	+1.0	−0.8	+1.7	+1.9±3.2
BH slice down the line	7%	−9.3	+2.3	−1.6	−8.6±4.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +8.0±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (513 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Tommy Haas

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return +1	+3.5±5.6	+0.3	+3.1
BH slice to the middle · return +1	+2.5±3.4	+2.9	−0.4
BH slice to the middle · rally	+2.3±2.6	+1.6	+0.7
BH to their backhand · return +1	+1.8±3.7	+0.5	+1.3
BH slice to their forehand · return	+1.6±4.8	+1.6	±0.0
BH slice to their forehand · rally	+1.6±4.0	+0.4	+1.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their forehand · rally	−13.2±8.6	−1.0	−12.1
FH to their forehand · return	−10.4±5.0	−1.5	−8.8
BH slice to their backhand · return +1	−5.9±3.4	+1.9	−7.8
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−5.6±2.8	−0.2	−5.4
BH slice to their backhand · serve +1	−5.4±4.0	+2.9	−8.3

Feliciano Lopez

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+7.7±8.3	+6.1	+1.6
BH slice to their forehand · return	+5.7±4.2	+1.6	+4.2
BH volley to their backhand · rally	+4.8±8.3	−3.8	+8.6
FH volley to their backhand · rally	+3.7±8.5	+3.6	+0.1
BH slice to the middle · rally	+2.1±2.3	+1.0	+1.1
BH slice to their backhand · return +1	+1.6±3.0	+1.3	+0.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−9.8±6.6	−7.3	−2.5
FH to their forehand · return	−6.8±5.2	−9.5	+2.8
BH to their forehand · rally	−6.7±4.1	−4.5	−2.2
Smash to their forehand · rally	−6.5±6.4	−4.8	−1.7
BH to their backhand · rally	−6.3±2.9	−6.2	−0.1

Against Feliciano Lopez-like opponents

Tommy Haas v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	61.6%	32.5%
Players most similar to Feliciano Lopez	11	64.2%	31.1%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Ethan Quinn, Grigor Dimitrov, Stan Wawrinka, Christopher Oconnell, James Duckworth, Malek Jaziri, Tim Van Rijthoven, Sergiy Stakhovsky, Roger Federer. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.