Game plan

Varvara Gracheva v Daria Kasatkina

Every number combines what Varvara Gracheva does well with what Daria Kasatkina allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Varvara Gracheva wins, best of 3 50%90%: 18%–82% · best of 5: 50%

Serve points won 52.4% / 52.4% Varvara / Daria · tour 58.1%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 44%serve 52.0% / 53.1%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Varvara Gracheva's record against Daria Kasatkina's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (head-to-head: +5.0 on serve, +10.5 on return vs expectation (227 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Varvara	Daria
Direction choice	+0.06 ±0.12 better than 65%	+0.08 ±0.07 better than 70%
Shot selection	+0.04 ±0.19 better than 49%	−0.29 ±0.11 better than 22%
Execution	−0.42 ±0.65 better than 37%	+1.39 ±0.30 better than 96%
Points left on the table	2.32 ±0.17 lower than 84%	2.36 ±0.08 lower than 79%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Varvara Gracheva +0.55, Daria Kasatkina +2.77. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Varvara Gracheva serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Varvara wins	v Daria	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	64%	63%	61.4%±7.0	40%
Body	30%	52%	52%	46.8%±7.8	15% ▼
T	30%	64%	67%	62.3%±8.0	45% ▲

Optimal v Daria Kasatkina: +1.2±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +5.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Varvara wins	v Daria	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	35%	60%	60%	54.5%±8.5	43% ▲
Body	27%	48%	56%	47.6%±8.8	12% ▼
T	38%	56%	63%	53.7%±7.8	45% ▲

Optimal v Daria Kasatkina: +0.2±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Daria Kasatkina serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Daria wins	v Varvara	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	63%	65%	61.4%±6.7	58% ▲
Body	25%	57%	51%	50.3%±8.6	10% ▼
T	32%	65%	66%	63.4%±8.2	32%

Optimal v Varvara Gracheva: +0.5±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Daria wins	v Varvara	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	57%	62%	53.5%±7.5	34% ▼
Body	22%	52%	60%	56.2%±9.0	13% ▼
T	38%	61%	66%	63.0%±7.5	53% ▲

Optimal v Varvara Gracheva: +0.5±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Varvara Gracheva returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daria	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.2	+1.0	+1.8	+6.9±2.4
FH crosscourt	22%	+5.3	+0.4	+1.9	+7.6±3.6
FH down the line	16%	+1.5	−1.7	+2.3	+2.2±4.1
FH slice through the middle	9%	−6.7	−0.7	−0.2	−7.6±2.5
FH slice crosscourt	5%	−6.6	+1.0	−1.1	−6.7±2.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.8±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (223 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daria	Value
BH through the middle	42%	+6.0	+0.8	+0.3	+7.2±2.3
BH crosscourt	32%	+7.7	+2.2	+3.5	+13.4±3.0
BH down the line	10%	+2.2	−0.7	+0.8	+2.3±4.0
BH slice through the middle	9%	−6.2	−0.6	+2.1	−4.8±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	7%	−4.2	+0.1	−1.1	−5.1±2.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.7±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (183 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daria	Value
FH through the middle	44%	−3.2	−0.3	+1.8	−1.7±2.6
FH crosscourt	41%	+0.5	−1.5	+0.8	−0.2±3.7
FH down the line	15%	−0.6	+2.8	+6.7	+8.9±4.0

Lean FH crosscourt: −0.7±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (41 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daria	Value
BH through the middle	45%	−2.6	+0.2	+0.8	−1.6±2.5
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.5	+1.4	+1.5	+4.4±3.2
BH down the line	16%	−0.5	−0.9	−1.5	−2.9±4.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.9±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (99 returns charted)

Daria Kasatkina returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Varvara	Value
FH through the middle	39%	+4.2	+3.2	+3.3	+10.7±2.4
FH crosscourt	21%	+5.3	+2.1	−2.1	+5.3±3.9
FH slice through the middle	17%	−6.7	+0.9	+2.4	−3.4±2.2
FH down the line	12%	+1.5	+6.0	+1.1	+8.7±4.5
FH slice crosscourt	9%	−6.6	+1.7	+0.3	−4.6±2.3

Lean FH through the middle: +5.6±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (1118 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Varvara	Value
BH through the middle	49%	+6.0	+2.8	+0.3	+9.2±2.2
BH crosscourt	28%	+7.7	+2.8	+0.8	+11.3±3.2
BH down the line	12%	+2.2	+3.5	−0.1	+5.6±4.5
BH slice through the middle	6%	−6.2	+1.6	+0.7	−4.0±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−4.2	−1.0	±0.0	−5.1±2.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.7±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1078 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Varvara	Value
FH through the middle	46%	−3.2	+3.7	+0.6	+1.1±3.0
FH crosscourt	30%	+0.5	+0.6	+3.2	+4.3±4.4
FH down the line	21%	−0.6	+2.6	+0.5	+2.5±5.3
FH slice through the middle	4%	−15.2	+1.3	±0.0	−13.9±1.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.6±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (226 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Varvara	Value
BH through the middle	35%	−2.6	+1.9	−0.1	−0.8±2.5
BH crosscourt	31%	+1.5	+1.1	−1.1	+1.5±3.3
BH down the line	15%	−0.5	+0.7	−2.5	−2.3±5.2
FH inside-out	9%	+1.4	+0.4	+0.5	+2.2±4.3
FH through the middle	7%	−2.7	+1.3	+0.6	−0.7±2.7
FH inside-in	4%	+0.7	+3.3	+3.2	+7.2±4.5

Lean FH inside-in: +7.0±4.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (596 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.