Game plan

Victor Estrella v Adrian Andreev

Every number combines what Victor Estrella does well with what Adrian Andreev allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Victor Estrella wins, best of 3 31%90%: 4%–77% · best of 5: 27%

Serve points won 56.1% / 59.9% Victor / Adrian · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 31%serve 56.1% / 59.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Victor Estrella's record against Adrian Andreev's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Victor	Adrian
Direction choice	−0.39 ±0.21 better than 3%	+0.03 ±0.12 better than 66%
Shot selection	−1.61 ±0.19 better than 1%	−0.07 ±0.36 better than 44%
Execution	−0.91 ±0.98 better than 27%	−1.22 ±0.62 better than 18%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Victor Estrella serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Victor wins	v Adrian	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	25%	69%	64%	60.3%±13.8	38% ▲
Body	15%	55%	58%	49.8%±18.2	2% ▼
T	60%	70%	68%	61.7%±11.2	60%

Optimal v Adrian Andreev: +0.5±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Victor wins	v Adrian	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	68%	65%	59.5%±12.3	55% ▲
Body	7%	60%	59%	55.9%±18.8	0% ▼
T	51%	56%	69%	52.9%±13.5	45% ▼

Optimal v Adrian Andreev: +0.2±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Adrian Andreev serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Adrian wins	v Victor	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	63%	73%	63.2%±11.4	66% ▲
Body	2%	63%	65%	64.5%±18.1	0% ▼
T	45%	73%	70%	68.1%±11.2	34% ▼

Optimal v Victor Estrella: +0.2±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Adrian wins	v Victor	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	69%	77%	73.6%±10.0	60% ▲
Body	5%	64%	66%	67.4%±16.6	0% ▼
T	48%	67%	73%	68.7%±12.4	40% ▼

Optimal v Victor Estrella: +0.2±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Victor Estrella returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Adrian	Value
FH slice through the middle	42%	−4.2	−1.8	+0.9	−5.1±2.3
FH through the middle	25%	+4.3	+1.3	+3.4	+9.0±2.8
FH slice crosscourt	23%	−4.3	+0.1	+0.5	−3.7±2.2
FH slice down the line	10%	−4.3	−0.5	+2.4	−2.4±2.5

Lean FH slice through the middle: −4.1±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (52 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Adrian	Value
BH slice through the middle	56%	−4.2	+1.1	+1.4	−1.7±2.4
BH slice down the line	20%	−8.4	+3.3	±0.0	−5.1±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	17%	+0.5	+1.5	+1.0	+3.0±2.4
BH through the middle	7%	+6.4	−2.5	+2.3	+6.2±2.4

Lean BH slice crosscourt: +4.0±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (100 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Adrian	Value
BH slice through the middle	38%	−11.3	+0.2	±0.0	−11.1±1.5
BH slice crosscourt	31%	−4.0	−0.2	±0.0	−4.2±1.5
FH through the middle	19%	−2.9	+0.2	+1.1	−1.6±2.0
BH through the middle	12%	−2.9	+0.1	+1.3	−1.5±2.1

Lean BH slice through the middle: −5.1±1.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (42 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Adrian Andreev returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Victor	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	+2.0	±0.0	+6.2±3.1
FH crosscourt	23%	+5.5	+0.9	+1.5	+7.9±3.7
FH down the line	22%	+1.7	+5.3	+1.3	+8.2±3.8
FH slice crosscourt	9%	−4.3	+0.7	±0.0	−3.7±1.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.8±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (65 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Victor	Value
BH through the middle	53%	+6.4	+2.5	+1.9	+10.8±2.8
BH crosscourt	29%	+8.8	+2.5	+3.3	+14.5±3.5
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	+0.9	+0.9	+6.0±3.5
BH slice through the middle	7%	−4.2	+1.0	−1.0	−4.2±2.0
BH slice down the line	3%	−8.4	+1.4	±0.0	−7.0±1.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.6±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (150 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Victor	Value
BH through the middle	62%	−2.9	+0.5	−0.1	−2.5±2.5
BH crosscourt	32%	+1.0	−0.6	+1.1	+1.5±3.2
BH down the line	6%	−0.2	+0.5	−0.2	+0.1±4.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.6±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (128 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Victor Estrella

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · rally	+1.6±3.5	−2.6	+4.2
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.1±5.2	−0.5	−1.6
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−2.5±6.2	−1.4	−1.1
FH to their backhand · rally	−3.7±4.7	−3.3	−0.4
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−4.2±5.4	−4.7	+0.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−4.2±5.4	−4.7	+0.6
FH to their backhand · rally	−3.7±4.7	−3.3	−0.4
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−2.5±6.2	−1.4	−1.1
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.1±5.2	−0.5	−1.6
FH to the middle · rally	+1.6±3.5	−2.6	+4.2

Adrian Andreev

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	+6.9±6.3	+6.9	±0.0
BH to the middle · return	+4.8±3.7	+2.9	+2.0
BH to the middle · rally	+1.9±3.4	+2.9	−1.0
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.2±4.5	+3.3	−3.1
FH to the middle · rally	−1.3±3.7	+3.7	−5.0
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.9±5.2	+2.1	−6.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−11.0±5.4	−4.1	−7.0
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−6.7±6.2	−2.5	−4.2
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.9±5.2	+2.1	−6.1
FH to the middle · rally	−1.3±3.7	+3.7	−5.0
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.2±4.5	+3.3	−3.1

Against Adrian Andreev-like opponents

Victor Estrella v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	56.6%	34.2%