Game plan

Wayne Ferreira v Flavio Cobolli

Every number combines what Wayne Ferreira does well with what Flavio Cobolli allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Wayne Ferreira wins, best of 3 78%90%: 57%–92% · best of 5: 84%

Serve points won 67.2% / 60.9% Wayne / Flavio · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 78%serve 67.2% / 60.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Wayne Ferreira's record against Flavio Cobolli's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Wayne	Flavio
Direction choice	+0.09 ±0.09 better than 81%	−0.14 ±0.11 better than 21%
Shot selection	−0.17 ±0.19 better than 32%	−0.07 ±0.21 better than 44%
Execution	−1.10 ±0.89 better than 22%	−1.35 ±0.63 better than 14%
Points left on the table	2.60 ±0.15 lower than 49%	2.80 ±0.13 lower than 31%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Wayne Ferreira serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Wayne wins	v Flavio	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	72%	73%	72.7%±6.7	37% ▼
Body	3%	63%	70%	69.1%±14.4	0% ▼
T	50%	73%	77%	75.6%±6.6	63% ▲

Optimal v Flavio Cobolli: +0.4±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Wayne wins	v Flavio	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	58%	64%	74%	65.8%±7.4	52% ▼
Body	7%	58%	68%	63.3%±15.5	0% ▼
T	35%	68%	74%	70.1%±8.0	48% ▲

Optimal v Flavio Cobolli: +0.5±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Flavio Cobolli serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Flavio wins	v Wayne	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	66%	74%	66.5%±7.5	29% ▼
Body	6%	65%	65%	66.5%±13.3	6%
T	52%	74%	76%	75.2%±7.2	65% ▲

Optimal v Wayne Ferreira: +0.4±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Flavio wins	v Wayne	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	58%	70%	76%	73.2%±6.9	72% ▲
Body	8%	66%	61%	64.0%±14.4	0% ▼
T	34%	73%	73%	73.9%±8.1	28% ▼

Optimal v Wayne Ferreira: +0.5±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Wayne Ferreira returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Flavio	Value
FH through the middle	41%	+4.3	−2.0	+0.6	+2.8±2.8
FH down the line	36%	+1.7	−1.9	−2.4	−2.6±4.4
FH crosscourt	15%	+5.5	+5.6	+4.4	+15.5±4.4
FH slice through the middle	5%	−4.2	+0.9	+0.1	−3.2±2.0
FH slice down the line	3%	−4.3	+0.5	−1.0	−4.8±2.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +13.2±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (209 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Flavio	Value
BH through the middle	33%	+6.4	−4.7	−0.6	+1.1±2.6
BH crosscourt	27%	+8.8	−1.0	+2.5	+10.3±3.3
BH down the line	16%	+4.2	−3.0	+4.3	+5.5±4.6
BH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−1.1	−2.4	−7.7±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	9%	+0.5	+0.9	−1.6	−0.2±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.5±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (211 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Flavio	Value
FH through the middle	43%	−3.5	+1.9	−0.1	−1.6±2.7
FH down the line	33%	−1.8	−0.1	−1.6	−3.4±4.6
FH crosscourt	24%	−0.2	+0.5	−2.9	−2.7±4.2

Lean FH through the middle: +0.8±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (76 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Flavio	Value
BH crosscourt	45%	+1.0	−0.2	−0.3	+0.5±2.9
BH through the middle	37%	−2.9	−1.7	+0.4	−4.2±2.3
BH down the line	10%	−0.2	−0.6	+1.6	+0.7±4.8
FH inside-in	3%	+0.6	−0.4	−2.9	−2.7±3.7
FH through the middle	3%	−2.9	+0.3	−0.1	−2.6±1.9

Lean BH down the line: +2.1±4.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (229 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Flavio Cobolli returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Wayne	Value
FH through the middle	40%	+4.3	−0.5	+1.3	+5.0±2.9
FH down the line	17%	+1.7	+0.5	−1.3	+0.9±4.5
FH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	+0.6	+0.4	−3.2±1.9
FH crosscourt	16%	+5.5	−0.9	+2.2	+6.8±4.4
FH slice down the line	8%	−4.3	−2.1	±0.0	−6.4±2.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.7±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (365 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Wayne	Value
BH through the middle	32%	+6.4	−3.0	−1.1	+2.3±2.7
BH slice through the middle	19%	−4.2	−1.0	+0.1	−5.0±2.5
BH crosscourt	18%	+8.8	+0.2	−0.2	+8.7±3.6
BH down the line	13%	+4.2	+0.1	+2.0	+6.3±4.5
BH slice down the line	11%	−8.4	−0.4	−0.1	−8.9±3.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.5±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (436 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Wayne	Value
FH through the middle	59%	−3.5	−0.7	−2.5	−6.7±2.9
FH down the line	21%	−1.8	−2.3	+1.6	−2.5±4.6
FH crosscourt	20%	−0.2	−2.3	−1.6	−4.1±4.2

Lean FH down the line: +2.8±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (122 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Wayne	Value
BH through the middle	41%	−2.9	−2.3	−2.0	−7.2±2.4
BH crosscourt	28%	+1.0	−2.8	−0.1	−1.9±3.0
BH down the line	12%	−0.2	−3.2	−3.2	−6.6±4.9
FH through the middle	11%	−2.9	−0.6	−2.5	−6.0±2.4
FH inside-out	5%	+1.0	−0.1	+1.6	+2.5±3.5

Lean FH inside-out: +7.4±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (297 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Wayne Ferreira

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	+7.0±6.4	+5.9	+1.1
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+3.9±3.6	+4.1	−0.2
BH to their forehand · return	+3.4±6.5	+1.4	+2.0
BH to their backhand · return +1	+1.9±4.7	+0.5	+1.4
BH to their backhand · rally	+1.1±2.6	−0.1	+1.2
FH to their forehand · return +1	+0.7±5.7	+0.2	+0.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	−7.2±2.8	−5.3	−1.9
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−5.5±4.4	−0.2	−5.2
FH to the middle · rally	−4.8±2.9	−3.8	−1.1
BH to their forehand · rally	−4.5±5.4	−4.8	+0.3
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.9±3.6	−3.7	+0.8

Flavio Cobolli

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+1.7±4.3	+2.3	−0.6
BH to their forehand · rally	+0.6±6.1	−1.5	+2.0
BH slice to the middle · return	−0.3±3.5	+0.2	−0.5
BH to their backhand · rally	−1.2±2.5	−0.1	−1.1
BH to their backhand · return +1	−1.4±4.4	+0.6	−2.0
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.5±3.3	+0.6	−2.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	−7.8±3.0	−5.0	−2.8
BH to their backhand · return	−5.9±3.9	−4.5	−1.4
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−5.6±5.3	−4.5	−1.1
FH to the middle · rally	−4.6±2.9	−2.2	−2.3
FH to their forehand · return +1	−3.9±5.7	−4.9	+1.1

Against Flavio Cobolli-like opponents

Wayne Ferreira v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	60.7%	35.5%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Jannik Sinner, Jiri Lehecka, Gael Monfils, Marcos Giron, Thiago Seyboth Wild, Aleksandar Vukic, Fabio Fognini, Kyle Edmund, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Gustavo Kuerten. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.