Game plan

Yoshihito Nishioka v Andrey Rublev

Every number combines what Yoshihito Nishioka does well with what Andrey Rublev allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Yoshihito Nishioka wins, best of 3 12%90%: 3%–30% · best of 5: 7%

Serve points won 57.6% / 66.9% Yoshihito / Andrey · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 11%serve 57.4% / 67.1%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Yoshihito Nishioka's record against Andrey Rublev's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (head-to-head: +1.9 on serve, +1.4 on return vs expectation (317 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Yoshihito	Andrey
Direction choice	−0.29 ±0.10 better than 6%	+0.03 ±0.04 better than 64%
Shot selection	−0.18 ±0.14 better than 32%	−0.01 ±0.06 better than 52%
Execution	+0.62 ±0.43 better than 87%	+0.89 ±0.28 better than 94%
Points left on the table	3.00 ±0.19 lower than 19%	2.39 ±0.07 lower than 74%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Yoshihito Nishioka +1.25, Andrey Rublev +1.21. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Yoshihito Nishioka serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Yoshihito wins	v Andrey	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	25%	62%	74%	63.5%±5.6	38% ▲
Body	22%	57%	60%	53.9%±6.7	9% ▼
T	53%	61%	72%	58.0%±3.8	53%

Optimal v Andrey Rublev: +0.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Yoshihito wins	v Andrey	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	63%	72%	62.4%±3.7	55%
Body	16%	60%	60%	57.1%±7.5	3% ▼
T	29%	75%	74%	76.6%±4.6	42% ▲

Optimal v Andrey Rublev: +1.0±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +10.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Andrey Rublev serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Andrey wins	v Yoshihito	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	74%	79%	80.4%±3.0	57% ▲
Body	5%	68%	55%	60.2%±8.8	0% ▼
T	51%	80%	80%	83.6%±3.0	43% ▼

Optimal v Yoshihito Nishioka: +0.6±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Andrey wins	v Yoshihito	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	77%	78%	81.4%±3.3	42% ▼
Body	4%	68%	62%	67.2%±9.7	0% ▼
T	44%	73%	77%	78.1%±3.5	58% ▲

Optimal v Yoshihito Nishioka: +0.5±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Yoshihito Nishioka returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andrey	Value
FH through the middle	40%	+4.3	+3.3	+2.7	+10.3±2.0
FH crosscourt	23%	+5.5	+0.7	+0.8	+7.0±3.5
FH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	+2.3	+0.8	−1.1±1.9
FH down the line	9%	+1.7	−0.1	+5.0	+6.7±3.7
FH slice crosscourt	7%	−4.3	+3.3	+2.2	+1.2±2.7

Lean FH through the middle: +4.1±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (435 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andrey	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	+0.5	+3.1	+10.0±1.8
BH crosscourt	22%	+8.8	±0.0	+2.4	+11.1±2.8
BH slice through the middle	21%	−4.2	−0.6	−0.5	−5.2±1.9
BH slice down the line	7%	−8.4	+1.7	+0.3	−6.4±3.2
BH down the line	6%	+4.2	−4.8	+3.6	+3.0±3.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.4±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (612 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andrey	Value
FH through the middle	49%	−3.5	+1.5	+1.1	−0.8±2.2
FH crosscourt	38%	−0.2	+0.3	+1.0	+1.1±3.6
FH down the line	9%	−1.8	−1.0	+2.4	−0.4±3.9
FH slice through the middle	4%	−12.7	+0.5	−0.5	−12.7±2.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.7±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (261 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andrey	Value
BH through the middle	53%	−2.9	+2.9	+0.3	+0.3±1.7
BH crosscourt	29%	+1.0	+2.5	+7.5	+11.0±2.7
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	+0.7	+0.9	+1.4±3.6
BH slice through the middle	4%	−11.3	−0.5	−4.1	−15.9±2.2
FH through the middle	3%	−2.9	+1.8	+1.1	±0.0±1.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +8.3±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (286 returns charted)

Andrey Rublev returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yoshihito	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	+1.4	+3.3	+9.0±1.8
FH crosscourt	24%	+5.5	+3.9	+2.1	+11.5±3.3
FH down the line	13%	+1.7	+2.5	−2.0	+2.2±3.9
FH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−2.9	+1.2	−5.9±2.1
FH slice crosscourt	4%	−4.3	−0.6	+0.4	−4.4±2.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.1±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (2295 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yoshihito	Value
BH through the middle	47%	+6.4	+3.2	+4.2	+13.9±1.3
BH crosscourt	32%	+8.8	+3.9	+5.0	+17.8±2.3
BH down the line	9%	+4.2	+4.2	+0.8	+9.2±3.7
BH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	−0.6	+0.9	−3.9±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	3%	+0.5	−2.2	+3.2	+1.5±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.9±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (2738 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yoshihito	Value
FH through the middle	44%	−3.5	+1.0	+2.8	+0.3±2.2
FH crosscourt	29%	−0.2	+0.6	+5.0	+5.4±3.8
FH down the line	21%	−1.8	−0.4	−4.7	−6.9±4.4
BH through the middle	2%	+0.1	−0.7	+0.2	−0.4±1.7
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	−0.3	−0.1	−13.1±1.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.3±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (677 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yoshihito	Value
BH crosscourt	43%	+1.0	+0.8	+0.8	+2.6±2.1
BH through the middle	39%	−2.9	+0.8	+0.2	−1.9±1.6
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	+2.3	+4.3	+6.5±4.4
FH through the middle	4%	−2.9	−1.1	+2.8	−1.2±2.1
FH inside-in	2%	+0.6	+1.0	+5.0	+6.5±4.2

Lean FH inside-in: +5.5±4.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (2289 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.