Game plan

Yulia Putintseva v Claudia Kohde Kilsch

Every number combines what Yulia Putintseva does well with what Claudia Kohde Kilsch allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Yulia Putintseva serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Yulia wins	v Claudia	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	58%	60%	66%	60.5%±12.6	58%
Body	18%	52%	61%	55.6%±12.7	3% ▼
T	24%	66%	66%	64.2%±12.3	39% ▲

Optimal v Claudia Kohde Kilsch: +0.6±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Yulia wins	v Claudia	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	60%	60%	54.2%±10.9	43% ▼
Body	17%	52%	55%	50.0%±14.7	9% ▼
T	33%	59%	67%	61.1%±14.4	48% ▲

Optimal v Claudia Kohde Kilsch: +0.5±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Claudia Kohde Kilsch serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Claudia wins	v Yulia	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	33%	69%	68%	71.5%±10.7	48% ▲
Body	40%	54%	62%	58.0%±11.9	25% ▼
T	26%	59%	66%	57.6%±13.2	27%

Optimal v Yulia Putintseva: +1.0±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +9.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Claudia wins	v Yulia	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	20%	67%	70%	70.7%±12.7	20%
Body	42%	55%	54%	53.0%±12.4	27% ▼
T	39%	56%	68%	59.9%±12.4	53% ▲

Optimal v Yulia Putintseva: +0.9±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +11.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Yulia Putintseva returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Claudia	Value
FH through the middle	47%	+4.2	−0.6	−1.0	+2.6±2.8
FH down the line	25%	+1.5	+1.1	+0.1	+2.7±4.4
FH crosscourt	16%	+5.3	−5.1	−0.1	+0.1±4.3
FH slice through the middle	7%	−6.7	+0.8	±0.0	−5.9±1.7
FH slice crosscourt	5%	−6.6	−1.0	±0.0	−7.6±1.8

Lean FH down the line: +1.6±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (415 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Claudia	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.0	+1.8	−1.6	+6.2±2.6
BH crosscourt	28%	+7.7	+1.9	+0.1	+9.8±3.0
BH slice through the middle	12%	−6.2	−1.6	+0.9	−7.0±2.4
BH down the line	12%	+2.2	+0.5	±0.0	+2.7±3.3
BH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.2	+0.2	+0.7	−3.2±2.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.9±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (371 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Claudia	Value
FH through the middle	51%	−3.2	−0.1	±0.0	−3.3±2.7
FH down the line	30%	−0.6	−4.4	−1.9	−6.9±4.7
FH crosscourt	19%	+0.5	−1.0	+0.2	−0.2±3.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.6±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (107 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Claudia	Value
BH through the middle	44%	−2.6	+0.6	−0.1	−2.1±2.3
BH crosscourt	36%	+1.5	±0.0	±0.0	+1.5±2.5
BH down the line	17%	−0.5	−2.5	±0.0	−3.0±3.7
FH through the middle	3%	−2.7	+0.7	±0.0	−2.1±1.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.4±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (230 returns charted)

Claudia Kohde Kilsch returning

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yulia	Value
BH slice crosscourt	67%	−4.2	+3.8	−0.2	−0.5±2.6
BH slice through the middle	33%	−6.2	−0.1	+0.9	−5.5±2.4

Lean BH slice crosscourt: +1.6±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (58 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Yulia Putintseva

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+6.6±3.2	+1.2	+5.4
FH to their forehand · rally	+2.4±4.8	+1.8	+0.7
BH slice to their forehand · rally	±0.0±5.2	−2.6	+2.6
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.5±5.0	+1.0	−3.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.5±5.0	+1.0	−3.6
BH slice to their forehand · rally	±0.0±5.2	−2.6	+2.6
FH to their forehand · rally	+2.4±4.8	+1.8	+0.7
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+6.6±3.2	+1.2	+5.4

Claudia Kohde Kilsch

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+2.9±3.4	+7.1	−4.3
FH to their forehand · rally	−4.3±4.8	−3.6	−0.7
FH to their backhand · rally	−7.2±5.0	−8.5	+1.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	−7.2±5.0	−8.5	+1.3
FH to their forehand · rally	−4.3±4.8	−3.6	−0.7
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+2.9±3.4	+7.1	−4.3

Against Claudia Kohde Kilsch-like opponents

Yulia Putintseva v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	53.8%	40.1%