RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 8 charted matches · 1990–1994

David Wheaton

Archetype: Serve-and-volleyer · Net rusher

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 64.6% ±3.3 raw 62.1% · tour 63.4% · 776 points
Return points won 37.2% ±3.4 raw 33.0% · tour 36.6% · 766 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.35 ±0.17 better than 4% of ATP · raw −0.35
Shot selection +0.55 ±0.20 better than 95% of ATP · raw +0.55
Execution −0.43 ±0.91 better than 47% of ATP · raw −0.46

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,848 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points David Wheaton goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net

position worth 54% to the average player · 62 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH volley crosscourt 23% 56.8%±14.0 56.5%
FH volley down the line 21% 48.7%±14.3 55.4%
FH volley through the middle 18% 36.5%±14.2 36.5%
BH volley through the middle 16% 34.4%±14.3 36.6%

Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle, you at net

position worth 57% to the average player · 51 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH volley crosscourt 35% 65.6%±12.7 64.6%
FH volley crosscourt 25% 62.9%±13.8 63.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 50 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 48% 39.3%±12.1 46.6%
FH through the middle 32% 48.0%±13.7 41.5%

Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net

position worth 33% to the average player · 48 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 27% 41.4%±14.1 43.4%
BH down the line 23% 41.4%±14.6 39.2%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +11 How much less varied David Wheaton's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 74 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 37% 36% 69% / 73%
Body 19% 7% ▼ 62% / 63%
T 44% 57% ▲ 77% / 75%

379 normal · 14 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 44% 55% ▲ 76% / 73%
Body 21% 12% ▼ 61% / 63%
T 35% 33% 72% / 72%

309 normal · 60 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide37% 62.7%±6.0 n=146 50% ▲
Body19% 61.5%±7.9 n=73 6% ▼
T44% 61.3%±5.6 n=174 44%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.94).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide46% 61.8%±5.7 n=170 46%
Body19% 60.3%±8.0 n=71 6% ▼
T35% 63.6%±6.3 n=128 48% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.82).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.54 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.7±6.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (263 repeats, 483 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 21 28% −9.3±10.3
1stAd courtT 119 24% −4.3±5.7
1stAd courtWide 78 33% +5.3±7.4
1stDeuce courtBody 26 32% −4.5±10.3
1stDeuce courtT 93 19% −5.9±5.8
1stDeuce courtWide 120 28% +0.9±6.0
2ndAd courtBody 62 45% −3.9±8.5
2ndAd courtT 28 46% −3.1±10.8
2ndAd courtWide 54 41% −7.3±8.8
2ndDeuce courtBody 70 51% +1.7±8.2
2ndDeuce courtT 43 51% +0.9±9.6
2ndDeuce courtWide 40 49% +1.1±9.8

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than David Wheaton's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → BH volley crosscourt used 4.6% · won 78% · +2.5±9.5 vs own baseline
  2. Body serve (deuce court) → FH volley down the line used 4.4% · won 74% · −1.9±10.1 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 8.0% · won 36% · +3.5±11.0 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, mid used 8.7% · won 33% · +0.3±10.6 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. Not enough data

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

Wide 1st serve · deuce court+2.5146
T 1st serve · ad court+1.7128
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.9170
BH to the middle · return+0.6136
T 1st serve · deuce court−1.2174

Most exposed to

T 1st serve · ad court−1.7190
T 1st serve · deuce court−0.8173
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+0.6182
BH to the middle · return+0.7149
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.8138

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Reilly Opelka, Milos Raonic, Nick Kyrgios, Nicolas Jarry, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Serve & volley66%
Points at net27%
Point-ending shots35.2%
Through the middle30%
BH down the line26%
Unforced errors / shot12.0%
1st serve in64%
Backhand slice22%
T serves · deuce44%
FH down the line30%
Wide serves · ad46%
T serves · ad35%
Chipped returns8%
Drop shots / shot0.6%
Deep returns21%
Wide serves · deuce37%
Forehand share46%
Run-around forehands2%
Avg rally length2.8

Plays most like

  1. Todd Martin 1992–2001 plan v
  2. John Mcenroe 1978–1992 plan v
  3. Mischa Zverev 2013–2020 plan v
  4. Pat Cash 1984–1992 plan v
  5. Michael Stich 1990–1997 plan v
  6. Malivai Washington 1992–1996 plan v
  7. Cedric Pioline 1992–2000 plan v
  8. Goran Ivanisevic 1990–2001 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Mischa Zverev 2013–2020
  2. Mardy Fish 2003–2012
  3. Radek Stepanek 2004–2014

Charted matches