RallyIQ

ATP · Left-handed · 66 charted matches · 1978–1992

John Mcenroe

Archetype: Serve-and-volleyer · Net rusher

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 65.9% ±2.3 raw 63.7% · tour 63.4% · 7,119 points
Return points won 37.9% ±2.4 raw 35.8% · tour 36.6% · 7,048 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.26 ±0.08 better than 9% of ATP · raw −0.25
Shot selection +0.77 ±0.17 better than 98% of ATP · raw +0.78
Execution −0.45 ±0.30 better than 46% of ATP · raw −0.33
Tactical adaptability −0.08 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 60 matches
Adaptation speed −0.02 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 4.83 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 1% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 28,332 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points John Mcenroe goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 817 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 18% 48.5%±6.4 47.6%
BH through the middle 17% 42.5%±6.5 43.7%
BH slice crosscourt 16% 49.7%±6.8 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 14% 37.9%±6.9 35.1%
BH slice down the line 13% 32.6%±6.9 37.1%
BH down the line 10% 39.5%±8.0 46.4%
BH slice down the line + approach 4% 53.3%±11.4 48.6%
BH down the line + approach 2% 45.6%±13.0 66.2%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 601 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 18% 40.5%±7.1 43.0%
BH slice through the middle 18% 37.7%±7.1 32.6%
BH crosscourt 17% 46.2%±7.5 46.9%
BH slice crosscourt 15% 38.9%±7.6 40.9%
BH slice down the line 14% 39.3%±7.8 33.3%
BH down the line 10% 31.8%±8.7 44.2%
BH slice down the line + approach 2% 53.3%±13.9 48.3%
BH down the line + approach 2% 59.5%±14.1 63.2%

Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net

position worth 54% to the average player · 547 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH volley crosscourt 26% 58.1%±6.3 61.3%
FH volley down the line 16% 55.6%±7.9 55.4%
BH volley down the line 14% 57.7%±8.2 50.8%
FH volley through the middle 14% 39.1%±8.1 36.5%
BH volley through the middle 13% 35.2%±8.3 36.6%
BH volley crosscourt 12% 60.8%±8.7 56.5%
FH crosscourt 3% 80.2%±10.9 79.4%

Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net

position worth 61% to the average player · 538 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH volley crosscourt 25% 59.6%±6.5 68.7%
FH volley down the line 23% 63.0%±6.6 63.8%
BH volley crosscourt 19% 55.3%±7.3 62.9%
BH volley down the line 17% 52.9%±7.8 58.4%
BH volley through the middle 7% 42.7%±10.5 43.2%
FH volley through the middle 7% 43.9%±10.5 46.6%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −1 How much less varied John Mcenroe's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 594 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 43% 46% 75% / 73%
Body 17% 16% 64% / 63%
T 40% 38% 69% / 75%

3,419 normal · 158 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 52% 54% 74% / 73%
Body 10% 11% 64% / 63%
T 39% 35% 78% / 72%

2,822 normal · 436 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide43% 61.7%±2.0 n=1,526 50% ▲
Body17% 63.3%±3.1 n=624 4% ▼
T40% 61.6%±2.1 n=1,427 46% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.71).
Optimal mix: +0.1 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide52% 65.3%±1.9 n=1,695 60% ▲
Body10% 61.1%±4.3 n=321 0% ▼
T38% 65.5%±2.2 n=1,242 40% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.24).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.30 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −0.4±1.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (2,615 repeats, 4,088 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 295 35% −1.6±4.4
1stAd courtT 961 28% −0.3±2.3
1stAd courtWide 679 31% +4.1±2.9
1stDeuce courtBody 216 37% +0.7±5.1
1stDeuce courtT 822 28% +2.9±2.5
1stDeuce courtWide 1,086 30% +2.6±2.3
2ndAd courtBody 475 49% −0.5±3.7
2ndAd courtT 546 48% −1.1±3.4
2ndAd courtWide 266 48% +0.1±4.8
2ndDeuce courtBody 446 44% −5.4±3.7
2ndDeuce courtT 206 43% −6.9±5.3
2ndDeuce courtWide 712 45% −3.0±3.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than John Mcenroe's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → BH volley crosscourt used 3.0% · won 71% · +3.9±5.0 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH volley crosscourt used 2.3% · won 71% · +3.8±5.6 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → FH volley crosscourt used 2.9% · won 65% · −2.2±5.4 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → FH volley down the line used 4.1% · won 64% · −3.6±4.6 vs own baseline
  5. Body serve (deuce court) → FH volley crosscourt used 2.6% · won 61% · −6.0±5.8 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt, mid used 2.5% · won 53% · +16.5±6.4 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, short used 2.1% · won 45% · +7.9±6.9 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, short used 2.4% · won 43% · +6.9±6.5 vs own baseline
  4. vs T serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 2.1% · won 41% · +4.1±6.8 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 2.4% · won 40% · +3.0±6.4 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 55% · +10.8±8.1 vs own baseline
  2. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 55% · +11.4±10.6 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 3.6% · won 49% · +5.2±6.9 vs own baseline
  4. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 1.7% · won 50% · +6.4±9.2 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 48% · +4.4±8.1 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often John Mcenroe wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH volley down the line → FH down the line → FH volley crosscourt used 0.3% · won 72% · +23.5±10.2 vs own baseline · +16.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Ivan Lendl (11/11)
  2. Wide serve → FH through the middle return, mid → FH volley crosscourt used 0.2% · won 69% · +20.7±11.3 vs own baseline · +26.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Ivan Lendl (10/11)
  3. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH volley down the line used 0.4% · won 64% · +15.6±10.4 vs own baseline · +14.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Ivan Lendl (14/16)
  4. T serve → BH slice through the middle return, short → FH volley crosscourt used 0.3% · won 64% · +16.0±10.8 vs own baseline · +5.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Ivan Lendl (9/13)
  5. Wide serve → BH slice crosscourt return, short → FH volley down the line used 0.3% · won 62% · +13.5±11.7 vs own baseline · +3.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Ivan Lendl (12/16)
  6. T serve → BH through the middle return → BH volley down the line used 0.2% · won 62% · +14.1±11.9 vs own baseline · +19.8 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH volley to their forehand · rally+10.4173
FH to their backhand · return+6.4769
BH slice to their forehand · return +1+4.3143
BH to their forehand · return+3.6446
FH volley to their backhand · rally+3.5173

Most exposed to

FH volley to their backhand · rally−8.2157
BH volley to their forehand · rally−7.5158
FH to their backhand · return +1−6.5337
FH to their backhand · return−3.9559
BH slice to their forehand · return−3.7190

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Rafael Nadal, Denis Shapovalov, Casper Ruud, Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Points at net34%
Serve & volley74%
BH down the line31%
Point-ending shots33.6%
Backhand slice39%
Wide serves · ad52%
Through the middle25%
Unforced errors / shot10.2%
Chipped returns15%
Wide serves · deuce43%
T serves · ad38%
FH down the line30%
Drop shots / shot0.8%
T serves · deuce40%
1st serve in58%
Run-around forehands6%
Avg rally length3.2
Deep returns17%
Forehand share44%

Plays most like

  1. Pat Cash 1984–1992 plan v
  2. David Wheaton 1990–1994 plan v
  3. Boris Becker 1985–1999 plan v
  4. Michael Stich 1990–1997 plan v
  5. Stefan Edberg 1985–2012 plan v
  6. Todd Martin 1992–2001 plan v
  7. Max Mirnyi 2001–2006 plan v
  8. Mischa Zverev 2013–2020 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Max Mirnyi 2001–2006
  2. Mischa Zverev 2013–2020
  3. Tim Henman 1995–2006

Charted matches