RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 87 charted matches · 2009–2023

John Isner

Archetype: High-risk · Runs around the backhand

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 71.0% ±2.1 raw 70.5% · tour 63.4% · 7,956 points
Return points won 31.7% ±2.2 raw 26.5% · tour 36.6% · 7,710 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.13 ±0.05 better than 25% of ATP · raw −0.13
Shot selection +0.62 ±0.09 better than 96% of ATP · raw +0.62
Execution −0.90 ±0.33 better than 28% of ATP · raw −0.94
Tactical adaptability +0.08 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 84 matches
Adaptation speed +0.22 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.98 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 20% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 29,726 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points John Isner goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 1,331 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 26% 31.7%±4.0 43.7%
BH crosscourt 22% 33.3%±4.4 47.6%
BH down the line 12% 33.8%±5.7 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 11% 26.5%±5.5 42.5%
FH inside-out 10% 35.9%±6.5 51.8%
BH slice through the middle 8% 16.4%±5.4 35.1%
FH inside-in 4% 46.3%±9.9 54.7%
BH slice down the line 2% 24.8%±10.0 37.1%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 963 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 29% 28.5%±4.3 43.0%
BH crosscourt 20% 32.3%±5.3 46.9%
BH slice through the middle 12% 25.6%±6.2 32.6%
BH slice crosscourt 12% 30.9%±6.7 40.9%
BH down the line 10% 34.6%±7.3 44.2%
FH inside-out 9% 42.5%±7.8 51.7%
FH through the middle 2% 30.7%±11.7 44.4%
BH slice down the line 2% 27.3%±11.7 33.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 962 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 31% 38.1%±4.5 51.5%
FH through the middle 19% 35.8%±5.6 47.0%
BH through the middle 14% 32.3%±6.2 46.8%
FH crosscourt 14% 44.4%±6.7 52.7%
BH crosscourt 5% 36.4%±9.4 49.1%
BH down the line 4% 31.1%±9.8 48.3%
FH down the line + approach 4% 65.0%±10.7 70.5%
FH crosscourt + approach 2% 72.0%±11.3 69.9%

Return +1: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 718 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 27% 45.0%±5.6 51.8%
FH through the middle 20% 31.2%±6.0 46.5%
FH crosscourt 15% 42.6%±7.2 52.4%
BH through the middle 15% 44.2%±7.3 46.5%
FH down the line + approach 7% 64.2%±9.4 69.7%
BH crosscourt 5% 33.5%±10.7 48.7%
FH crosscourt + approach 4% 51.3%±11.9 68.0%
BH down the line 4% 37.6%±11.6 48.4%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +8 How much less varied John Isner's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 391 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 52% 46% 78% / 73%
Body 9% 7% 61% / 63%
T 39% 48% ▲ 78% / 75%

4,084 normal · 90 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 46% 58% ▲ 80% / 73%
Body 6% 4% 66% / 63%
T 48% 38% ▼ 79% / 72%

3,456 normal · 301 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide52% 70.8%±1.6 n=2,156 65% ▲
Body9% 62.9%±4.0 n=371 0% ▼
T39% 70.0%±1.8 n=1,647 35% ▼

Off equilibrium (p = 0.003): serve wide more. Gap 1.0 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +1.0 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide47% 72.6%±1.7 n=1,752 60% ▲
Body6% 62.6%±5.0 n=223 0% ▼
T47% 71.1%±1.8 n=1,782 40% ▼

Off equilibrium (p = 0.002): serve wide more. Gap 1.3 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.82 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +2.1±1.8 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (3,607 repeats, 4,150 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 302 30% −7.1±4.1
1stAd courtT 963 20% −8.5±2.1
1stAd courtWide 1,084 17% −10.5±1.8
1stDeuce courtBody 344 24% −12.4±3.7
1stDeuce courtT 1,231 16% −9.6±1.7
1stDeuce courtWide 1,084 21% −5.7±2.0
2ndAd courtBody 393 45% −4.3±4.0
2ndAd courtT 300 41% −8.7±4.4
2ndAd courtWide 584 39% −8.9±3.2
2ndDeuce courtBody 612 43% −6.2±3.2
2ndDeuce courtT 572 41% −8.5±3.3
2ndDeuce courtWide 223 37% −11.5±5.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than John Isner's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 2.6% · won 58% · −15.6±5.4 vs own baseline
  2. Body serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 2.1% · won 48% · −25.7±6.0 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 3.3% · won 36% · +7.8±5.1 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 2.1% · won 36% · +7.9±6.3 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 2.2% · won 33% · +5.3±6.0 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 2.1% · won 33% · +5.1±6.2 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle used 2.7% · won 23% · −4.6±5.0 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH down the line → FH inside-out used 2.1% · won 40% · +6.6±7.8 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.5% · won 41% · +7.6±8.8 vs own baseline
  3. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 41% · +7.4±9.2 vs own baseline
  4. FH inside-out → FH inside-out used 1.2% · won 39% · +6.1±9.5 vs own baseline
  5. FH down the line → FH down the line used 2.2% · won 38% · +4.3±7.7 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often John Isner wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. Wide serve → FH through the middle return, mid → FH down the line used 0.3% · won 56% · +16.2±10.2 vs own baseline · +10.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Juan Martin Del Potro (5/6)
  2. Wide serve → BH slice through the middle return → FH volley crosscourt used 0.2% · won 61% · +21.4±12.1 vs own baseline · +5.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Stefanos Tsitsipas (6/6)
  3. FH down the line + approach → BH lob through the middle → Smash down the line used 0.1% · won 63% · +22.5±12.6 vs own baseline · +15.3 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. FH down the line + approach → BH through the middle → FH volley crosscourt used 0.2% · won 57% · +16.5±12.0 vs own baseline · +2.2 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. T serve → FH through the middle return, short → FH down the line + approach used 0.1% · won 59% · +18.5±12.7 vs own baseline · +16.9 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. Wide serve → BH through the middle return → FH volley crosscourt used 0.1% · won 58% · +17.5±12.9 vs own baseline · +13.4 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH volley to their forehand · serve +1+7.1158
T 1st serve · deuce court+5.71,631
T 1st serve · ad court+5.31,767
T 2nd serve · ad court+5.3218
Wide 1st serve · ad court+5.11,731

Most exposed to

BH to their forehand · rally−7.1383
BH to their forehand · serve +1−5.9228
FH to their forehand · serve +1−4.5835
FH to their forehand · return +1−4.0260
BH to their forehand · return +1−3.7228

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Juncheng Shang, Pedro Martinez, Learner Tien, Miomir Kecmanovic, Nishesh Basavareddy

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Unforced errors / shot15.8%
FH down the line40%
1st serve in70%
Point-ending shots34.6%
Run-around forehands35%
Wide serves · deuce52%
T serves · ad47%
Forehand share60%
Through the middle27%
BH down the line24%
Backhand slice28%
Serve & volley16%
Points at net13%
Deep returns29%
Drop shots / shot1.3%
Wide serves · ad47%
Chipped returns9%
T serves · deuce39%
Avg rally length2.9

Plays most like

  1. Reilly Opelka 2019–2025 plan v
  2. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 2024–2026 plan v
  3. Milos Raonic 2011–2024 plan v
  4. Jeremy Chardy 2013–2023 plan v
  5. Arthur Rinderknech 2021–2026 plan v
  6. Felix Auger Aliassime 2017–2026 plan v
  7. Nicolas Jarry 2019–2025 plan v
  8. Lukas Rosol 2012–2019 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Mark Philippoussis 1995–2003
  2. Brad Gilbert 1987–1994
  3. Jim Courier 1989–1999

Charted matches