Karue Sell

Against an average opponent

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,156 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Karue Sell goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +14 How much less varied Karue Sell's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 45 break-point first serves.

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Exploitability 0.62 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −3.0±8.8 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (163 repeats, 343 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Karue Sell's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Karue Sell wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.6% · won 58% · +7.0±9.6 vs own baseline · +13.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jesper De Jong (0/6), Camilo Ugo Carabelli (6/10)
2. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 61% · +9.2±11.9 vs own baseline · +22.6 vs tour on the same sequence
3. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 56% · +4.8±12.0 vs own baseline · +13.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Camilo Ugo Carabelli (4/7)
4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.3% · won 54% · +2.2±10.1 vs own baseline · +6.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Nishesh Basavareddy (1/9), Evan Zhu (7/13)
5. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 54% · +2.8±12.4 vs own baseline · +3.3 vs tour on the same sequence
6. BH through the middle → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 53% · +1.8±12.5 vs own baseline · +8.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Charted matches

• Karue Sell v Robin Bertrand W Oeiras 1 CH R32 · Hard · 6 Jan 2025
• Mateus Alves v Karue Sell L Curitiba CH R16 · Clay · 24 Oct 2024
• Karue Sell v Henrique Rocha W Curitiba CH R32 · Clay · 21 Oct 2024
• Camilo Ugo Carabelli v Karue Sell L Campinas CH R16 · Clay · 17 Oct 2024
• Daniel Dutra Da Silva v Karue Sell W Campinas CH R32 · Clay · 15 Oct 2024
• Nishesh Basavareddy v Karue Sell L Tiburon CH QF · Hard · 4 Oct 2024
• Jesper De Jong v Karue Sell L Antofagasta CH R16 · Clay · 25 Sep 2024
• Juan Pablo Ficovich v Karue Sell W Bogota CH QF · Clay · 9 Aug 2024
• Karue Sell v Evan Zhu W Acapulco CH Q1 · Hard · 14 Apr 2024