RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 9 charted matches · 2000–2001

Magnus Norman

Archetype: Blocks returns short · Works the corners

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.5% ±3.4 raw 59.7% · tour 63.4% · 747 points
Return points won 38.5% ±3.5 raw 38.2% · tour 36.6% · 773 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.12 ±0.08 better than 85% of ATP · raw +0.12
Shot selection +0.05 ±0.12 better than 60% of ATP · raw +0.05
Execution −0.12 ±0.82 better than 62% of ATP · raw −0.12
Points left on the table 2.17 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 94% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 4,275 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Magnus Norman goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 352 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 48% 49.0%±6.0 47.6%
BH through the middle 17% 45.4%±9.1 43.7%
BH down the line 12% 39.8%±10.3 46.4%
FH inside-out 10% 56.2%±11.1 51.8%
BH slice through the middle 4% 32.4%±13.2 35.1%
BH slice crosscourt 4% 50.0%±14.3 42.5%
FH inside-in 4% 60.4%±14.0 54.7%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 233 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 53% 47.3%±6.9 48.0%
BH through the middle 21% 45.2%±9.9 43.8%
BH down the line 14% 43.9%±11.2 46.5%
FH inside-out 6% 47.2%±13.9 52.6%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 201 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 33% 46.9%±8.9 51.5%
FH crosscourt 29% 50.7%±9.3 52.7%
FH through the middle 15% 48.8%±11.6 47.0%
BH through the middle 9% 40.4%±13.1 46.8%
BH crosscourt 7% 42.4%±13.7 49.1%
BH down the line 7% 49.0%±14.1 48.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 176 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 43% 41.4%±8.3 46.6%
FH down the line 30% 38.3%±9.4 44.7%
FH through the middle 27% 34.3%±9.5 41.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +5 How much less varied Magnus Norman's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 83 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 47% 47% 71% / 73%
Body 15% 5% ▼ 56% / 63%
T 38% 47% ▲ 76% / 75%

357 normal · 19 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 48% 52% 68% / 73%
Body 16% 14% 66% / 63%
T 36% 34% 64% / 72%

294 normal · 64 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide47% 63.3%±5.5 n=177 60% ▲
Body15% 53.6%±8.8 n=56 2% ▼
T38% 63.1%±6.0 n=143 38%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.12).
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide49% 59.0%±5.7 n=175 62% ▲
Body15% 62.9%±8.6 n=55 15%
T36% 52.0%±6.5 n=128 23% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.12).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.56 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.6±6.2 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (209 repeats, 507 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 20 28% −8.8±10.5
1stAd courtT 72 26% −2.1±7.1
1stAd courtWide 103 26% −0.8±6.3
1stDeuce courtBody 22 35% −2.1±10.9
1stDeuce courtT 102 21% −4.2±5.8
1stDeuce courtWide 86 29% +1.4±6.9
2ndAd courtBody 61 48% −1.2±8.6
2ndAd courtT 6 49% +0.1±13.7
2ndAd courtWide 106 57% +8.6±7.0
2ndDeuce courtBody 115 50% +1.1±6.8
2ndDeuce courtT 43 53% +3.6±9.6
2ndDeuce courtWide 30 54% +6.0±10.6

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Magnus Norman's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line + approach used 4.1% · won 72% · +7.3±10.4 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.8% · won 59% · −5.9±11.5 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 3.8% · won 59% · −5.9±11.5 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 4.9% · won 58% · −6.8±10.8 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.8% · won 57% · −7.9±11.6 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 15.6% · won 56% · +7.9±9.1 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 7.5% · won 51% · +2.9±11.5 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 11.2% · won 50% · +1.9±10.2 vs own baseline
  4. vs body serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 10.8% · won 49% · +1.1±10.3 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, short used 8.1% · won 47% · −0.9±11.2 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.7% · won 50% · +8.2±11.6 vs own baseline
  2. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 5.2% · won 47% · +5.3±9.7 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 3.8% · won 48% · +5.6±10.6 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 9.5% · won 45% · +3.3±7.7 vs own baseline
  5. BH down the line → FH crosscourt used 2.9% · won 45% · +2.5±11.3 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Magnus Norman wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.9% · won 56% · +11.0±11.9 vs own baseline · +23.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Gustavo Kuerten (9/14)
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 1.5% · won 52% · +7.3±10.6 vs own baseline · +11.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Marat Safin (3/6), Gustavo Kuerten (9/16)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 52% · +7.7±11.6 vs own baseline · +11.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Gustavo Kuerten (9/15)
  4. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 3.1% · won 49% · +4.0±8.3 vs own baseline · +1.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lleyton Hewitt (3/10), Yevgeny Kafelnikov (2/7)
  5. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH inside-out used 0.6% · won 53% · +8.3±13.0 vs own baseline · +15.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Gustavo Kuerten (7/9)
  6. BH through the middle → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 50% · +5.7±12.4 vs own baseline · +11.2 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

Wide 1st serve · deuce court+0.7177
BH to the middle · rally+0.5153
T 1st serve · ad court+0.5128
BH to their backhand · rally+0.4356
FH to their forehand · rally+0.2279

Most exposed to

T 1st serve · deuce court−1.3198
T 1st serve · ad court−1.3140
FH to their backhand · rally−1.0259
BH to the middle · return−0.4142
BH to their backhand · rally−0.2408

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Nick Kyrgios, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Milos Raonic, Reilly Opelka, Hamad Medjedovic

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Avg rally length4.7
Run-around forehands26%
FH down the line34%
Wide serves · deuce47%
Forehand share55%
Unforced errors / shot10.3%
BH down the line20%
Points at net11%
Wide serves · ad49%
1st serve in60%
Chipped returns12%
Serve & volley1%
T serves · ad36%
Point-ending shots21.1%
Backhand slice11%
Drop shots / shot0.6%
T serves · deuce38%
Through the middle20%
Deep returns19%

Plays most like

  1. Valentin Vacherot 2024–2026 plan v
  2. Tommy Paul 2016–2026 plan v
  3. Kei Nishikori 2011–2025 plan v
  4. Arnaud Clement 1999–2006 plan v
  5. Roman Safiullin 2017–2025 plan v
  6. Kyle Edmund 2016–2023 plan v
  7. Laslo Djere 2018–2026 plan v
  8. Andre Agassi 1988–2006 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Valentin Vacherot 2024–2026
  2. Tommy Paul 2016–2026
  3. Kei Nishikori 2011–2025

Charted matches