Game plan

Alejandro Tabilo v Yoshihito Nishioka

Every number combines what Alejandro Tabilo does well with what Yoshihito Nishioka allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Alejandro Tabilo wins, best of 3 80%90%: 55%–94% · best of 5: 85%

Serve points won 65.9% / 59.4% Alejandro / Yoshihito · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 80%serve 65.9% / 59.4%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Alejandro Tabilo's record against Yoshihito Nishioka's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Alejandro	Yoshihito
Direction choice	−0.10 ±0.09 better than 30%	−0.29 ±0.10 better than 6%
Shot selection	−0.14 ±0.20 better than 34%	−0.18 ±0.14 better than 32%
Execution	+0.14 ±0.46 better than 74%	+0.62 ±0.43 better than 87%
Points left on the table	2.85 ±0.17 lower than 27%	3.00 ±0.19 lower than 19%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Alejandro Tabilo +1.01, Yoshihito Nishioka +1.32. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Alejandro Tabilo serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alejandro wins	v Yoshihito	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	74%	79%	80.0%±4.3	62% ▲
Body	14%	64%	55%	55.4%±10.7	1% ▼
T	37%	72%	80%	76.6%±5.4	37%

Optimal v Yoshihito Nishioka: +1.2±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +4.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alejandro wins	v Yoshihito	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	69%	78%	75.1%±5.3	46% ▼
Body	10%	62%	62%	61.0%±11.7	0% ▼
T	40%	76%	77%	80.7%±4.9	54% ▲

Optimal v Yoshihito Nishioka: +1.0±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Yoshihito Nishioka serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Yoshihito wins	v Alejandro	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	25%	62%	72%	61.6%±7.2	25%
Body	22%	57%	64%	58.2%±9.5	9% ▼
T	53%	61%	75%	61.9%±6.9	66% ▲

Optimal v Alejandro Tabilo: +0.5±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +0.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Yoshihito wins	v Alejandro	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	63%	78%	69.4%±6.2	55%
Body	16%	60%	63%	60.1%±9.7	3% ▼
T	29%	75%	75%	77.9%±5.8	42% ▲

Optimal v Alejandro Tabilo: +1.0±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +7.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Alejandro Tabilo returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yoshihito	Value
FH through the middle	40%	+4.3	+0.1	+3.3	+7.7±2.5
FH slice through the middle	21%	−4.2	−0.4	+1.2	−3.4±2.4
FH crosscourt	15%	+5.5	−2.8	−2.0	+0.7±4.4
FH slice crosscourt	10%	−4.3	+1.3	+1.3	−1.7±2.4
FH down the line	10%	+1.7	+0.4	+2.1	+4.2±4.2

Lean FH through the middle: +5.2±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (278 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yoshihito	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	+0.6	+4.2	+11.3±2.0
BH crosscourt	17%	+8.8	+1.4	+0.8	+11.0±3.3
BH down the line	16%	+4.2	−1.7	+5.0	+7.5±4.1
BH slice through the middle	11%	−4.2	−1.2	+0.9	−4.4±2.4
BH slice down the line	8%	−8.4	−0.1	+3.2	−5.4±3.5

Lean BH through the middle: +4.2±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (418 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yoshihito	Value
FH through the middle	43%	−3.5	−0.5	+2.8	−1.1±2.6
FH crosscourt	35%	−0.2	−0.8	−4.7	−5.6±4.4
FH down the line	14%	−1.8	+3.3	+5.0	+6.5±4.2
FH slice through the middle	8%	−12.7	−0.6	−0.1	−13.4±1.6

Lean FH down the line: +9.0±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (106 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yoshihito	Value
BH through the middle	56%	−2.9	+1.6	+0.2	−1.0±2.1
BH crosscourt	28%	+1.0	+1.0	+4.3	+6.4±3.2
BH down the line	14%	−0.2	−2.9	+0.8	−2.4±4.4
FH through the middle	2%	−2.9	+0.4	+2.8	+0.4±1.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.5±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (244 returns charted)

Yoshihito Nishioka returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alejandro	Value
FH through the middle	40%	+4.3	+3.3	−2.6	+5.0±2.5
FH crosscourt	23%	+5.5	+0.7	−3.8	+2.4±4.3
FH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	+2.3	−0.3	−2.2±2.3
FH down the line	9%	+1.7	−0.1	+1.9	+3.5±4.4
FH slice crosscourt	7%	−4.3	+3.3	−0.3	−1.3±2.7

Lean FH through the middle: +2.7±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (435 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alejandro	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	+0.5	+1.3	+8.2±2.2
BH crosscourt	22%	+8.8	±0.0	−2.1	+6.7±3.4
BH slice through the middle	21%	−4.2	−0.6	+1.4	−3.4±2.4
BH slice down the line	7%	−8.4	+1.7	+1.9	−4.8±3.5
BH down the line	6%	+4.2	−4.8	+0.9	+0.3±4.5

Lean BH through the middle: +5.1±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (612 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alejandro	Value
FH through the middle	49%	−3.5	+1.5	−0.3	−2.2±2.6
FH crosscourt	38%	−0.2	+0.3	−4.3	−4.2±4.3
FH down the line	9%	−1.8	−1.0	+0.1	−2.7±4.5
FH slice through the middle	4%	−12.7	+0.5	±0.0	−12.2±1.3

Lean FH through the middle: +1.2±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (261 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alejandro	Value
BH through the middle	53%	−2.9	+2.9	+1.7	+1.7±2.2
BH crosscourt	29%	+1.0	+2.5	−3.3	+0.2±3.1
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	+0.7	−0.7	−0.2±4.7
BH slice through the middle	4%	−11.3	−0.5	±0.0	−11.8±1.4
FH through the middle	3%	−2.9	+1.8	−0.3	−1.4±1.9

Lean BH through the middle: +1.4±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (286 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Alejandro Tabilo

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+6.6±1.5	+1.9	+4.8
FH slice to their backhand · rally	+5.7±3.7	+2.9	+2.8
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+5.1±4.2	+3.9	+1.2
BH to their forehand · return	+4.8±3.4	+1.7	+3.1
BH to their forehand · rally	+4.0±2.3	+2.1	+2.0
FH to their backhand · return +1	+3.4±3.2	+2.0	+1.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	−5.1±4.4	−0.3	−4.8
BH to their backhand · rally	−4.9±2.2	−3.2	−1.6
BH to their backhand · return +1	−3.7±3.4	−0.1	−3.6
FH to their forehand · return +1	−2.4±3.7	−2.2	−0.2
BH to the middle · serve +1	−2.1±2.4	−2.7	+0.6

Yoshihito Nishioka

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return +1	+6.6±4.4	+2.7	+3.9
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+6.5±4.0	+2.4	+4.0
BH to their forehand · rally	+5.5±2.6	+1.5	+4.0
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+3.6±3.0	+0.4	+3.2
BH to the middle · return	+3.4±1.7	+1.2	+2.2
FH to their backhand · return	+3.2±3.2	+2.3	+0.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	−7.4±4.4	−1.8	−5.5
BH to their backhand · return	−5.1±3.3	−2.9	−2.2
BH slice to the middle · rally	−4.1±2.2	−1.6	−2.5
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−3.5±2.6	−3.0	−0.5
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−2.0±2.4	−2.2	+0.2

Against Yoshihito Nishioka-like opponents

Alejandro Tabilo v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	63.5%	35.0%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Cameron Norrie, Gael Monfils, Mattia Bellucci, Albert Ramos, Dominik Koepfer, Rafael Nadal, Federico Delbonis, Pablo Cuevas, Guido Pella, Gaston Gaudio. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.