Game plan

Alessandro Giannessi v Hugo Gaston

Every number combines what Alessandro Giannessi does well with what Hugo Gaston allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Alessandro Giannessi serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alessandro wins	v Hugo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	29%	75%	68%	71.1%±12.6	42% ▲
Body	23%	66%	54%	56.4%±16.8	10% ▼
T	48%	65%	75%	64.8%±12.7	48%

Optimal v Hugo Gaston: +0.7±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +6.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alessandro wins	v Hugo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	66%	70%	79%	76.5%±10.4	79% ▲
Body	12%	65%	60%	61.8%±16.9	0% ▼
T	22%	71%	73%	71.9%±13.4	21% ▼

Optimal v Hugo Gaston: +0.5±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Hugo Gaston serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Hugo wins	v Alessandro	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	69%	70%	66.7%±12.1	54% ▲
Body	16%	66%	59%	62.5%±15.9	3% ▼
T	43%	67%	77%	69.2%±13.7	43%

Optimal v Alessandro Giannessi: +0.2±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Hugo wins	v Alessandro	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	67%	72%	69%	67.7%±13.6	61% ▼
Body	7%	66%	67%	69.9%±15.9	0% ▼
T	26%	75%	74%	77.0%±11.6	39% ▲

Optimal v Alessandro Giannessi: +0.3±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +6.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Alessandro Giannessi returning

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Hugo	Value
BH through the middle	41%	+6.4	−1.3	+2.1	+7.2±2.6
BH down the line	30%	+4.2	+0.8	−1.3	+3.7±4.3
BH slice through the middle	30%	−4.2	+0.2	+0.6	−3.4±2.2

Lean BH through the middle: +4.2±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (54 returns charted)

Hugo Gaston returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alessandro	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.3	+0.5	+1.7	+6.4±2.9
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.5	−4.2	−3.5	−2.1±3.6
FH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	−0.5	±0.0	−4.7±1.6
FH down the line	16%	+1.7	−2.1	+1.7	+1.3±3.9
FH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.3	−0.1	±0.0	−4.4±1.4

Lean FH through the middle: +4.9±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (152 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alessandro	Value
BH through the middle	39%	+6.4	−1.1	+2.0	+7.3±2.8
BH crosscourt	34%	+8.8	−3.4	±0.0	+5.4±2.9
BH slice through the middle	13%	−4.2	−1.4	+1.8	−3.8±2.1
BH down the line	9%	+4.2	−1.4	±0.0	+2.8±3.4
BH slice crosscourt	4%	+0.5	−1.4	±0.0	−0.8±1.4

Lean BH through the middle: +2.9±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (180 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alessandro	Value
FH through the middle	44%	−3.5	+0.4	−0.5	−3.6±2.5
FH crosscourt	37%	−0.2	+0.1	±0.0	−0.2±3.0
FH down the line	13%	−1.8	−1.2	+0.9	−2.1±3.6
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−12.5	±0.0	±0.0	−12.5±1.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.5±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (84 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alessandro	Value
BH through the middle	55%	−2.9	−1.4	+0.3	−3.9±2.5
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.0	−0.8	±0.0	+0.3±2.3
BH down the line	8%	−0.2	−1.0	±0.0	−1.2±2.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.4±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (80 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Alessandro Giannessi

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.7±4.5	+2.3	+0.5
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.8±5.1	−1.7	−2.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.8±5.1	−1.7	−2.1
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.7±4.5	+2.3	+0.5

Hugo Gaston

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.4±4.5	+2.6	+1.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.4±4.5	+2.6	+1.8

Against Hugo Gaston-like opponents

Alessandro Giannessi v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	60.7%	38.9%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Bublik, Luciano Darderi, Pedro Martinez, Yannick Hanfmann, Mattia Bellucci, Benoit Paire, Marco Cecchinato, Gustavo Kuerten, Gaston Gaudio. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.