Game plan

Alexandr Dolgopolov v Arthur Fils

Every number combines what Alexandr Dolgopolov does well with what Arthur Fils allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Alexandr Dolgopolov wins, best of 3 43%90%: 21%–68% · best of 5: 42%

Serve points won 64.4% / 65.7% Alexandr / Arthur · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 43%serve 64.4% / 65.7%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Alexandr Dolgopolov's record against Arthur Fils's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Alexandr	Arthur
Direction choice	+0.18 ±0.06 better than 92%	+0.18 ±0.06 better than 92%
Shot selection	−0.24 ±0.16 better than 28%	−0.04 ±0.13 better than 48%
Execution	−0.90 ±0.66 better than 28%	+0.20 ±0.45 better than 75%
Points left on the table	2.15 ±0.12 lower than 96%	2.31 ±0.10 lower than 83%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Alexandr Dolgopolov serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alexandr wins	v Arthur	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	65%	73%	72%	72.2%±4.3	59% ▼
Body	7%	63%	67%	66.2%±11.2	0% ▼
T	28%	80%	73%	78.5%±5.5	41% ▲

Optimal v Arthur Fils: +0.3±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alexandr wins	v Arthur	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	58%	70%	71%	68.0%±5.1	46% ▼
Body	7%	62%	66%	65.4%±11.4	6% ▼
T	35%	74%	71%	72.6%±5.9	48% ▲

Optimal v Arthur Fils: +0.7±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +3.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Arthur Fils serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Arthur wins	v Alexandr	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	56%	73%	75%	74.9%±4.3	69% ▲
Body	5%	59%	68%	64.0%±9.7	0% ▼
T	39%	79%	72%	76.4%±4.9	31% ▼

Optimal v Alexandr Dolgopolov: +0.5±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Arthur wins	v Alexandr	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	74%	74%	74.6%±4.9	45% ▼
Body	5%	57%	60%	54.1%±10.9	0% ▼
T	42%	73%	76%	77.3%±4.7	55% ▲

Optimal v Alexandr Dolgopolov: +1.1±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Alexandr Dolgopolov returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Arthur	Value
FH slice through the middle	36%	−4.2	+1.7	+0.8	−1.7±2.1
FH slice down the line	20%	−4.3	+0.6	+0.6	−3.1±3.2
FH down the line	18%	+1.7	−7.1	+0.9	−4.6±4.0
FH through the middle	15%	+4.3	−3.0	+3.0	+4.3±2.5
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.3	+1.7	+1.2	−1.4±2.7
FH crosscourt	5%	+5.5	−2.3	+3.8	+7.0±3.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +8.2±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (401 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Arthur	Value
BH through the middle	47%	+6.4	−1.3	+3.4	+8.6±2.1
BH crosscourt	30%	+8.8	+0.1	+2.7	+11.6±2.9
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	−1.4	−0.9	+2.0±4.5
BH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	−1.6	+0.5	−5.3±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	4%	+0.5	−1.7	+0.8	−0.4±2.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.4±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (344 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Arthur	Value
FH down the line	39%	−1.8	+2.3	−2.2	−1.7±4.4
FH through the middle	24%	−3.5	−1.7	+0.9	−4.2±2.4
FH slice down the line	17%	−9.4	−0.6	±0.0	−10.0±1.9
FH crosscourt	10%	−0.2	−0.4	+0.1	−0.5±3.7
FH slice through the middle	10%	−12.7	−0.4	+0.1	−12.9±1.6

Lean FH down the line: +3.0±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (94 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Arthur	Value
BH crosscourt	52%	+1.0	−0.9	−2.1	−1.9±2.6
BH through the middle	31%	−2.9	−1.6	−0.8	−5.3±2.1
BH down the line	13%	−0.2	−0.6	+2.1	+1.3±4.6
BH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.0	±0.0	−0.6	−4.6±1.8

Lean BH down the line: +4.0±4.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (175 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Arthur Fils returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandr	Value
FH through the middle	39%	+4.3	+1.2	+0.6	+6.0±2.3
FH slice through the middle	22%	−4.2	+0.6	+0.9	−2.7±2.1
FH crosscourt	15%	+5.5	+6.2	−0.2	+11.5±4.1
FH down the line	12%	+1.7	+0.4	−1.1	+1.0±4.3
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.3	±0.0	+1.3	−3.1±2.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +8.3±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (963 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandr	Value
BH through the middle	42%	+6.4	+1.3	−0.9	+6.8±2.3
BH crosscourt	34%	+8.8	+2.4	+0.1	+11.4±2.9
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	+2.6	−1.0	+5.8±4.4
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−0.1	+1.0	−3.3±2.4
BH slice down the line	3%	−8.4	−0.9	−1.1	−10.4±3.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.7±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1115 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandr	Value
FH through the middle	44%	−3.5	+1.7	+2.0	+0.2±2.6
FH crosscourt	38%	−0.2	+0.2	−0.8	−0.8±4.2
FH down the line	15%	−1.8	+1.5	−0.4	−0.7±4.6
FH slice through the middle	3%	−12.7	+0.5	±0.0	−12.1±1.3

Lean FH through the middle: +1.0±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (287 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandr	Value
BH through the middle	37%	−2.9	−2.7	−3.4	−9.0±2.1
BH crosscourt	33%	+1.0	−0.7	+1.1	+1.4±2.6
FH through the middle	12%	−2.9	+0.2	+2.0	−0.7±2.2
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	+1.5	+1.3	+2.6±5.0
FH inside-in	6%	+0.6	−2.9	−0.8	−3.2±4.3

Lean BH down the line: +5.6±4.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (914 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Alexandr Dolgopolov

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return +1	+2.9±3.4	+4.2	−1.4
BH to their forehand · rally	+2.7±3.2	+3.2	−0.5
FH slice to the middle · return	+2.3±2.1	+1.2	+1.1
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+1.6±2.1	+1.9	−0.2
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+0.1±2.3	−0.5	+0.7
FH to the middle · rally	−0.2±1.9	−0.8	+0.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return +1	−6.5±4.7	−4.4	−2.1
BH slice to the middle · rally	−4.3±2.1	+0.4	−4.7
FH to their backhand · rally	−4.2±1.8	−1.6	−2.6
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.9±2.0	−3.1	−0.8
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−3.9±2.4	−1.0	−2.8

Arthur Fils

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their forehand · rally	+3.1±3.4	±0.0	+3.1
FH slice to the middle · return	+2.5±2.1	+1.2	+1.3
BH to their forehand · return	+2.3±4.1	+2.5	−0.2
BH to their backhand · return	+2.2±2.2	+1.9	+0.3
FH to the middle · return	+1.6±1.8	+0.5	+1.0
FH to their forehand · rally	+1.0±1.9	+0.3	+0.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−4.6±4.2	−2.1	−2.5
BH to the middle · return	−3.5±1.8	−0.3	−3.2
FH to their backhand · return +1	−3.3±3.2	−0.6	−2.7
FH to their backhand · return	−3.0±3.3	−1.7	−1.3
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−3.0±2.8	+0.5	−3.4

Against Arthur Fils-like opponents

Alexandr Dolgopolov v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	61.8%	34.3%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Tallon Griekspoor, Tommy Paul, Felix Auger Aliassime, Alexander Shevchenko, Zizou Bergs, Marin Cilic, Roman Safiullin, Lloyd Harris, Thomaz Bellucci, Leonardo Mayer. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.