Game plan

Alexis Galarneau v Richard Gasquet

Every number combines what Alexis Galarneau does well with what Richard Gasquet allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Alexis Galarneau wins, best of 3 51%90%: 22%–80% · best of 5: 51%

Serve points won 63.2% / 63.0% Alexis / Richard · tour 65.7%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 51%serve 63.2% / 63.0%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Alexis Galarneau's record against Richard Gasquet's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Alexis Galarneau serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alexis wins	v Richard	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	69%	74%	69.8%±9.2	47%
Body	20%	65%	70%	71.6%±10.6	7% ▼
T	33%	68%	78%	72.3%±9.8	46% ▲

Optimal v Richard Gasquet: +0.4±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alexis wins	v Richard	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	67%	78%	72.7%±7.9	67% ▲
Body	10%	61%	63%	60.8%±13.7	0% ▼
T	37%	76%	71%	75.1%±9.6	33% ▼

Optimal v Richard Gasquet: +0.8±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Richard Gasquet serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Richard wins	v Alexis	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	68%	74%	69.7%±9.7	42% ▼
Body	5%	62%	63%	62.0%±13.9	0% ▼
T	45%	75%	74%	74.0%±9.6	58% ▲

Optimal v Alexis Galarneau: +0.1±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Richard wins	v Alexis	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	71%	74%	72.3%±9.8	44% ▼
Body	5%	56%	52%	44.4%±14.2	0% ▼
T	43%	69%	66%	63.1%±11.0	56% ▲

Optimal v Alexis Galarneau: +0.9±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +5.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Alexis Galarneau returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Richard	Value
FH through the middle	59%	+4.3	+0.4	+1.1	+5.8±2.3
FH down the line	23%	+1.7	+2.3	+2.1	+6.0±3.3
FH crosscourt	9%	+5.5	−1.9	+4.6	+8.2±2.6
FH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−0.8	+0.7	−4.3±1.7

Lean FH through the middle: +0.6±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (56 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Richard	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	−2.5	+0.5	+4.4±2.1
BH crosscourt	30%	+8.8	−1.6	+2.1	+9.3±2.6
BH down the line	14%	+4.2	+0.7	+1.9	+6.8±3.5
BH slice through the middle	12%	−4.2	−0.5	+1.6	−3.1±1.6

Lean BH through the middle: −1.0±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (43 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Richard Gasquet returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexis	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.3	−0.4	+0.6	+4.5±2.4
FH crosscourt	28%	+5.5	−2.1	+3.2	+6.6±3.4
FH down the line	17%	+1.7	+3.3	+1.1	+6.2±3.5
FH slice through the middle	4%	−4.2	+2.2	−0.4	−2.4±1.9
FH slice down the line	1%	−4.3	+2.2	±0.0	−2.1±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.6±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (1536 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexis	Value
BH slice through the middle	30%	−4.2	+3.4	+0.3	−0.6±1.5
BH slice crosscourt	22%	+0.5	+1.1	±0.0	+1.7±1.4
BH crosscourt	18%	+8.8	−1.0	+0.9	+8.6±3.1
BH through the middle	18%	+6.4	−2.2	−0.9	+3.4±2.5
BH slice down the line	6%	−8.4	+2.3	+1.1	−5.0±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.5±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1628 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexis	Value
FH through the middle	42%	−3.5	+0.4	−0.8	−3.9±2.6
FH crosscourt	37%	−0.2	−2.2	−0.7	−3.1±3.6
FH down the line	17%	−1.8	+3.8	+1.2	+3.3±4.2
BH through the middle	2%	+0.1	+0.6	−1.8	−1.2±1.8
FH slice through the middle	1%	−12.7	+0.3	±0.0	−12.4±1.0

Lean FH down the line: +5.7±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (364 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexis	Value
BH crosscourt	36%	+1.0	+0.4	−2.4	−0.9±2.7
BH through the middle	27%	−2.9	±0.0	−1.8	−4.7±2.1
BH slice crosscourt	15%	−4.0	−0.4	±0.0	−4.4±1.5
BH slice through the middle	11%	−11.3	+0.7	±0.0	−10.6±1.5
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	+2.2	±0.0	+2.0±3.4

Lean BH down the line: +5.4±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (1238 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Alexis Galarneau

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	+5.7±2.9	+1.2	+4.5
FH to the middle · rally	+3.5±2.8	+2.3	+1.2
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.0±3.4	+1.3	+0.7
BH to the middle · rally	+1.6±2.4	+1.3	+0.3
FH to their forehand · rally	+0.8±3.5	−0.6	+1.4
BH to their backhand · rally	−0.3±2.8	+0.7	−1.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	−0.3±2.8	+0.7	−1.0
FH to their forehand · rally	+0.8±3.5	−0.6	+1.4
BH to the middle · rally	+1.6±2.4	+1.3	+0.3
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.0±3.4	+1.3	+0.7
FH to the middle · rally	+3.5±2.8	+2.3	+1.2

Richard Gasquet

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	+5.1±2.8	+3.4	+1.8
BH to the middle · rally	+2.1±2.5	+2.1	±0.0
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+1.0±2.7	+0.5	+0.4
FH to the middle · rally	+0.8±2.7	+2.2	−1.4
FH to their forehand · rally	−0.4±3.5	−0.9	+0.5
BH to their forehand · rally	−1.2±4.6	+2.7	−4.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return	−4.2±3.8	−3.5	−0.7
BH to the middle · return	−2.7±2.9	−1.1	−1.6
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.5±3.6	−1.1	−0.3
BH to their forehand · rally	−1.2±4.6	+2.7	−4.0
FH to their forehand · rally	−0.4±3.5	−0.9	+0.5

Against Richard Gasquet-like opponents

Alexis Galarneau v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	60.9%	45.5%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Learner Tien, Daniil Medvedev, Novak Djokovic, Karen Khachanov, Nishesh Basavareddy, Benjamin Bonzi, Andy Murray, Marcos Baghdatis, David Nalbandian, Ivan Ljubicic. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.