Game plan
Andy Murray v David Ferrer
Every number combines what Andy Murray does well with what David Ferrer allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Andy Murray's record against David Ferrer's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −0.8 on serve, −0.5 on return vs expectation (509 points); head-to-head: −4.1 on serve, +4.5 on return vs expectation (1493 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Andy | David |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | +0.14 ±0.03 better than 87% | −0.03 ±0.06 better than 48% |
| Shot selection | −0.45 ±0.05 better than 13% | +0.44 ±0.08 better than 89% |
| Execution | +0.94 ±0.16 better than 95% | +0.21 ±0.29 better than 76% |
| Points left on the table | 2.23 ±0.05 lower than 90% | 2.21 ±0.08 lower than 92% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Andy Murray serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Andy wins | v David | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 47% | 71% | 74% | 71.4%±2.8 | 60% ▲ |
| Body | 8% | 67% | 60% | 63.3%±5.8 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 46% | 80% | 73% | 78.1%±2.6 | 40% ▼ |
Optimal v David Ferrer: +0.4±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Andy wins | v David | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 47% | 77% | 71% | 75.1%±2.7 | 42% ▼ |
| Body | 8% | 61% | 62% | 60.0%±6.3 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 45% | 70% | 74% | 72.1%±3.2 | 58% ▲ |
Optimal v David Ferrer: +0.8±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
David Ferrer serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | David wins | v Andy | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 44% | 67% | 70% | 63.3%±3.0 | 44% |
| Body | 20% | 61% | 59% | 56.6%±4.7 | 7% ▼ |
| T | 36% | 67% | 76% | 67.9%±3.4 | 49% ▲ |
Optimal v Andy Murray: +0.5±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | David wins | v Andy | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 38% | 67% | 71% | 65.0%±3.4 | 51% ▲ |
| Body | 17% | 57% | 57% | 51.4%±5.4 | 4% ▼ |
| T | 44% | 63% | 68% | 58.4%±3.3 | 45% |
Optimal v Andy Murray: +0.9±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +5.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Andy Murray returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v David | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 42% | +4.3 | +1.4 | +1.4 | +7.1±1.2 |
| FH down the line | 17% | +1.7 | +6.2 | +4.2 | +12.0±2.5 |
| FH crosscourt | 16% | +5.5 | +1.9 | −0.6 | +6.8±2.8 |
| FH slice through the middle | 14% | −4.2 | +2.7 | +0.8 | −0.8±1.8 |
| FH slice down the line | 5% | −4.3 | +3.1 | −1.1 | −2.3±2.8 |
Lean FH down the line: +6.0±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (5314 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v David | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 27% | +8.8 | +4.6 | +1.4 | +14.8±1.9 |
| BH through the middle | 25% | +6.4 | +2.2 | +1.1 | +9.7±1.3 |
| BH slice through the middle | 25% | −4.2 | +2.7 | +1.5 | −0.1±1.5 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 15% | +0.5 | +2.4 | +2.6 | +5.5±2.0 |
| BH slice down the line | 4% | −8.4 | +0.9 | +0.7 | −6.7±3.2 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +7.5±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (4642 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v David | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 43% | −3.5 | +1.6 | +1.1 | −0.8±1.9 |
| FH down the line | 28% | −1.8 | +2.5 | +1.0 | +1.8±3.5 |
| FH crosscourt | 23% | −0.2 | +1.9 | +1.4 | +3.1±3.7 |
| BH through the middle | 3% | +0.1 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | −1.2±1.7 |
| BH inside-in | 1% | +2.5 | +2.7 | +1.4 | +6.6±2.8 |
Lean BH inside-in: +5.8±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1297 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v David | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 57% | +1.0 | +1.7 | +1.4 | +4.1±1.7 |
| BH through the middle | 29% | −2.9 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −2.8±1.4 |
| BH down the line | 7% | −0.2 | +2.4 | −0.1 | +2.1±4.0 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 3% | −4.0 | −1.9 | +0.2 | −5.7±2.5 |
| BH slice through the middle | 2% | −11.3 | −1.4 | −0.7 | −13.3±2.4 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +2.9±0.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (2339 returns charted)
David Ferrer returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Andy | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 45% | +4.3 | −0.9 | +1.2 | +4.5±1.4 |
| FH crosscourt | 19% | +5.5 | −0.8 | +1.3 | +6.0±2.7 |
| FH down the line | 19% | +1.7 | −0.6 | +0.2 | +1.3±2.8 |
| FH slice through the middle | 10% | −4.2 | −0.6 | +1.4 | −3.4±1.8 |
| FH slice down the line | 5% | −4.3 | +0.5 | +1.1 | −2.7±3.0 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +3.0±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (1210 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Andy | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 44% | +6.4 | −0.5 | −0.1 | +5.8±1.3 |
| BH crosscourt | 28% | +8.8 | +3.1 | +0.9 | +12.8±2.1 |
| BH slice through the middle | 10% | −4.2 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −4.9±1.8 |
| BH down the line | 10% | +4.2 | +2.6 | +0.1 | +6.9±3.5 |
| BH slice down the line | 4% | −8.4 | −3.6 | −3.5 | −15.5±3.1 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +7.0±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (1260 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Andy | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 40% | −3.5 | +1.5 | +0.7 | −1.3±2.0 |
| FH down the line | 35% | −1.8 | +3.0 | +2.6 | +3.8±3.5 |
| FH crosscourt | 19% | −0.2 | −0.2 | +1.5 | +1.1±3.4 |
| FH slice through the middle | 2% | −12.7 | −1.0 | −0.4 | −14.1±2.0 |
| BH through the middle | 2% | +0.1 | +0.1 | +1.1 | +1.4±1.0 |
Lean FH down the line: +3.2±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (339 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Andy | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 54% | +1.0 | +0.4 | +1.8 | +3.3±1.6 |
| BH through the middle | 33% | −2.9 | −0.1 | +1.1 | −1.9±1.4 |
| BH down the line | 4% | −0.2 | +1.9 | +1.3 | +3.0±3.9 |
| FH through the middle | 4% | −2.9 | +0.4 | +0.7 | −1.8±1.8 |
| FH inside-out | 3% | +1.0 | +2.4 | +2.6 | +5.9±2.8 |
Lean FH inside-out: +4.4±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (945 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Andy Murray
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to their backhand · return | +6.8±2.6 | +4.7 | +2.0 |
| BH volley to their backhand · rally | +6.5±6.4 | +0.9 | +5.6 |
| FH to their backhand · return | +6.0±3.0 | +2.4 | +3.6 |
| FH to the middle · return | +5.8±2.7 | +1.8 | +4.0 |
| BH to their forehand · rally | +5.3±3.8 | +2.3 | +3.0 |
| FH slice to their backhand · rally | +5.2±4.2 | +3.1 | +2.1 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to their forehand · rally | −1.2±2.9 | −1.7 | +0.5 |
| FH to the middle · serve +1 | −1.0±2.2 | −1.4 | +0.4 |
| BH volley to their forehand · rally | −0.7±6.3 | −0.3 | −0.4 |
| FH to the middle · return +1 | −0.3±2.6 | +0.6 | −0.9 |
| FH to their forehand · return +1 | +0.9±3.3 | +0.8 | +0.1 |
David Ferrer
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to the middle · return | +4.1±2.4 | +2.4 | +1.7 |
| BH to their forehand · rally | +3.8±3.8 | +4.9 | −1.1 |
| FH volley to their backhand · rally | +3.5±6.3 | +4.5 | −1.1 |
| FH to their backhand · return | +3.2±2.9 | +1.2 | +2.0 |
| BH to their backhand · return | +3.1±3.4 | +1.7 | +1.4 |
| BH to the middle · return | +2.8±2.4 | +1.6 | +1.2 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their forehand · serve +1 | −9.3±4.5 | −3.2 | −6.1 |
| FH to their forehand · return | −3.9±3.7 | −1.0 | −2.9 |
| BH to their backhand · return +1 | −3.9±3.0 | −1.1 | −2.7 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | −3.2±3.7 | −4.3 | +1.1 |
| FH slice to their backhand · rally | −2.6±4.2 | +0.3 | −2.8 |
Against David Ferrer-like opponents
| Andy Murray v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 63.7% | 38.1% |
| Players most similar to David Ferrer | 3 | 62.8% | 38.8% |
| David Ferrer (charted head-to-head) | 8 | 58.8% | 45.9% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Casper Ruud, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Tommy Paul, Pablo Carreno Busta, Miomir Kecmanovic, Diego Schwartzman, Ilya Ivashka, Carlos Berlocq, Guillermo Canas, Magnus Norman. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.
Charted head-to-head
- Andy Murray v David Ferrer Tour Finals RR · Hard · 16 Nov 2015
- David Ferrer v Andy Murray Paris SF · Hard · 7 Nov 2015
- David Ferrer v Andy Murray Vienna F · Hard · 19 Oct 2014
- David Ferrer v Andy Murray Miami Masters F · Hard · 31 Mar 2013
- David Ferrer v Andy Murray Roland Garros QF · Clay · 6 Jun 2012
- David Ferrer v Andy Murray Shanghai Masters F · Hard · 16 Oct 2011
- David Ferrer v Andy Murray Tokyo SF · Hard · 8 Oct 2011
- David Ferrer v Andy Murray Australian Open SF · Hard · 28 Jan 2011