Game plan
Carlos Alcaraz v Karen Khachanov
Every number combines what Carlos Alcaraz does well with what Karen Khachanov allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. Both were charted enough in the last three seasons, so those carry the most weight. The result is then nudged by Carlos Alcaraz's record against Karen Khachanov's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +1.2 on serve, +0.2 on return vs expectation (4176 points); head-to-head: +5.0 on serve, −2.1 on return vs expectation (464 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Carlos | Karen |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | +0.08 ±0.03 better than 77% | +0.01 ±0.06 better than 59% |
| Shot selection | +0.20 ±0.07 better than 73% | −0.28 ±0.08 better than 25% |
| Execution | +0.54 ±0.21 better than 85% | +0.50 ±0.28 better than 84% |
| Points left on the table | 2.43 ±0.05 lower than 70% | 2.41 ±0.10 lower than 72% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Structural compatibility
Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Carlos Alcaraz +1.46, Karen Khachanov −0.61. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Carlos Alcaraz serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Carlos wins | v Karen | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 46% | 73% | 74% | 74.6%±2.6 | 59% ▲ |
| Body | 18% | 67% | 64% | 68.3%±4.9 | 4% ▼ |
| T | 37% | 77% | 76% | 77.3%±2.7 | 37% |
Optimal v Karen Khachanov: +0.4±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Carlos wins | v Karen | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 49% | 72% | 76% | 75.1%±2.8 | 50% |
| Body | 16% | 66% | 65% | 68.2%±5.5 | 3% ▼ |
| T | 34% | 72% | 72% | 72.1%±3.0 | 47% ▲ |
Optimal v Karen Khachanov: +0.6±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Karen Khachanov serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Karen wins | v Carlos | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 50% | 73% | 66% | 66.6%±2.7 | 63% ▲ |
| Body | 5% | 63% | 61% | 60.8%±7.2 | 5% |
| T | 45% | 73% | 68% | 65.3%±3.1 | 32% ▼ |
Optimal v Carlos Alcaraz: +0.4±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Karen wins | v Carlos | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 52% | 74% | 67% | 68.6%±2.9 | 65% ▲ |
| Body | 6% | 61% | 58% | 56.5%±7.2 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 42% | 69% | 65% | 62.2%±3.3 | 35% ▼ |
Optimal v Carlos Alcaraz: +0.7±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Carlos Alcaraz returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Karen | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 49% | +4.3 | +1.2 | +1.3 | +6.8±1.3 |
| FH crosscourt | 24% | +5.5 | +1.3 | +0.9 | +7.7±2.5 |
| FH down the line | 14% | +1.7 | +1.2 | +1.9 | +4.8±2.9 |
| FH slice through the middle | 8% | −4.2 | +0.2 | +0.1 | −3.9±1.8 |
| FH slice down the line | 2% | −4.3 | +0.8 | +0.2 | −3.3±3.1 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +2.4±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (4205 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Karen | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 40% | +6.4 | +1.0 | +1.7 | +9.2±1.2 |
| BH crosscourt | 34% | +8.8 | +1.5 | +0.3 | +10.6±2.0 |
| BH slice through the middle | 10% | −4.2 | −2.3 | +0.6 | −5.9±1.6 |
| BH down the line | 7% | +4.2 | −0.5 | +0.4 | +4.1±3.6 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 6% | +0.5 | −1.3 | +1.5 | +0.7±2.5 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +4.0±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (4723 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Karen | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 42% | −3.5 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | −4.4±1.8 |
| FH crosscourt | 36% | −0.2 | −0.2 | +2.3 | +1.9±3.4 |
| FH down the line | 17% | −1.8 | −1.0 | +0.6 | −2.2±3.9 |
| FH slice through the middle | 2% | −12.7 | −0.8 | −0.3 | −13.8±2.0 |
| FH slice down the line | 1% | −9.4 | −1.6 | +0.8 | −10.3±2.2 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +3.8±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (1132 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Karen | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 45% | +1.0 | +0.1 | −0.8 | +0.3±1.7 |
| BH through the middle | 27% | −2.9 | −2.1 | +0.6 | −4.3±1.3 |
| BH down the line | 9% | −0.2 | +1.4 | −1.8 | −0.6±4.1 |
| FH through the middle | 7% | −2.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.9±1.8 |
| FH inside-in | 5% | +0.6 | −1.5 | +2.3 | +1.4±3.9 |
| FH inside-out | 4% | +1.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +1.5±3.3 |
Lean FH inside-out: +2.9±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (2787 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
Karen Khachanov returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Carlos | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 36% | +4.3 | +0.6 | +0.5 | +5.3±1.4 |
| FH slice through the middle | 27% | −4.2 | −0.9 | −1.5 | −6.6±1.5 |
| FH crosscourt | 14% | +5.5 | +0.4 | +0.8 | +6.7±2.8 |
| FH down the line | 11% | +1.7 | +1.1 | +1.0 | +3.7±3.1 |
| FH slice down the line | 7% | −4.3 | −0.5 | +0.9 | −3.8±3.0 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +5.8±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1496 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Carlos | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 46% | +6.4 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +7.3±1.3 |
| BH crosscourt | 32% | +8.8 | +1.1 | +0.7 | +10.5±1.9 |
| BH down the line | 8% | +4.2 | +4.2 | +0.1 | +8.4±3.6 |
| BH slice through the middle | 8% | −4.2 | −0.6 | −2.8 | −7.6±2.0 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 4% | +0.5 | −2.2 | −0.4 | −2.0±2.7 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +4.1±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (1202 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Carlos | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 53% | −3.5 | −1.0 | +0.1 | −4.3±1.9 |
| FH crosscourt | 26% | −0.2 | +0.6 | −1.0 | −0.6±3.5 |
| FH down the line | 18% | −1.8 | −0.4 | −2.0 | −4.2±3.9 |
| FH slice through the middle | 3% | −12.7 | −2.1 | −0.5 | −15.3±2.2 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +3.0±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (443 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Carlos | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 49% | +1.0 | +1.1 | −0.2 | +1.9±1.7 |
| BH through the middle | 37% | −2.9 | +2.3 | −1.2 | −1.7±1.4 |
| BH down the line | 6% | −0.2 | +2.3 | −1.6 | +0.5±4.1 |
| FH through the middle | 5% | −2.9 | +0.9 | +0.1 | −1.9±1.9 |
| FH inside-out | 2% | +1.0 | −0.2 | −2.0 | −1.3±2.9 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +1.7±1.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (854 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.
Carlos Alcaraz
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smash to their forehand · rally | +7.1±4.0 | +4.1 | +3.0 |
| FH volley to their backhand · rally | +5.8±4.8 | +2.9 | +2.9 |
| FH volley to their forehand · rally | +5.6±4.4 | +2.0 | +3.6 |
| BH volley to their forehand · rally | +5.4±5.0 | +4.9 | +0.5 |
| FH drop shot to their backhand · rally | +5.2±4.5 | +3.6 | +1.6 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | +4.4±1.6 | +2.2 | +2.2 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to their forehand · return | −6.9±3.4 | −5.2 | −1.6 |
| Smash to their backhand · rally | −3.6±4.4 | −1.4 | −2.2 |
| BH slice to the middle · rally | −3.0±1.4 | −3.8 | +0.8 |
| FH slice to the middle · rally | −2.3±2.2 | −1.6 | −0.6 |
| FH to their backhand · return +1 | −2.1±2.3 | +0.7 | −2.8 |
Karen Khachanov
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH volley to their backhand · rally | +3.2±4.8 | +4.8 | −1.6 |
| BH to their forehand · return | +3.2±2.8 | +3.5 | −0.4 |
| FH to their forehand · return | +3.1±2.4 | +2.4 | +0.7 |
| Smash to their forehand · rally | +2.1±4.0 | +1.2 | +0.9 |
| BH to the middle · return | +1.8±0.9 | +1.7 | +0.1 |
| FH to the middle · serve +1 | +1.3±1.4 | +1.9 | −0.6 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH volley to their forehand · rally | −10.0±4.9 | −3.6 | −6.4 |
| BH volley to their forehand · rally | −7.7±4.7 | −2.7 | −5.0 |
| BH volley to their backhand · rally | −5.1±4.8 | −2.0 | −3.1 |
| BH slice to the middle · return +1 | −4.7±2.0 | −1.3 | −3.5 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | −2.9±1.6 | −0.7 | −2.2 |
Against Karen Khachanov-like opponents
| Carlos Alcaraz v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 66.5% | 41.2% |
| Players most similar to Karen Khachanov | 22 | 66.3% | 39.9% |
| Karen Khachanov (charted head-to-head) | 3 | 71.0% | 38.9% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Learner Tien, Hubert Hurkacz, Brandon Nakashima, Tommy Paul, Novak Djokovic, Alexander Shevchenko, Laslo Djere, Alexandre Muller, Gregoire Barrere, Denis Istomin. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.