Game plan
Claudia Kohde Kilsch v Daria Kasatkina
Every number combines what Claudia Kohde Kilsch does well with what Daria Kasatkina allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Claudia Kohde Kilsch serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Claudia wins | v Daria | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 33% | 69% | 63% | 66.9%±11.2 | 43% ▲ |
| Body | 40% | 54% | 52% | 47.8%±11.2 | 25% ▼ |
| T | 26% | 59% | 67% | 58.1%±12.5 | 32% ▲ |
Optimal v Daria Kasatkina: +1.1±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +10.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Claudia wins | v Daria | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 20% | 67% | 60% | 61.6%±13.9 | 25% ▲ |
| Body | 42% | 55% | 56% | 54.6%±11.4 | 27% ▼ |
| T | 39% | 56% | 63% | 54.5%±11.9 | 48% ▲ |
Optimal v Daria Kasatkina: +0.3±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Daria Kasatkina serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Daria wins | v Claudia | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 43% | 63% | 66% | 62.8%±12.1 | 45% ▲ |
| Body | 25% | 57% | 61% | 60.4%±11.4 | 10% ▼ |
| T | 32% | 65% | 66% | 63.1%±11.5 | 45% ▲ |
Optimal v Claudia Kohde Kilsch: +0.1±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +0.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Daria wins | v Claudia | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 40% | 57% | 60% | 50.6%±10.5 | 40% |
| Body | 22% | 52% | 55% | 50.9%±13.6 | 7% ▼ |
| T | 38% | 61% | 67% | 63.5%±13.5 | 53% ▲ |
Optimal v Claudia Kohde Kilsch: +0.7±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +7.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Claudia Kohde Kilsch returning
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Daria | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice crosscourt | 67% | −4.2 | +3.8 | −1.1 | −1.4±3.0 |
| BH slice through the middle | 33% | −6.2 | −0.1 | +2.1 | −4.3±2.4 |
Lean BH slice crosscourt: +0.9±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (58 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
Daria Kasatkina returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Claudia | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 39% | +4.2 | +3.2 | −1.0 | +6.4±2.5 |
| FH crosscourt | 21% | +5.3 | +2.1 | −0.1 | +7.4±3.8 |
| FH slice through the middle | 17% | −6.7 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | −5.8±1.5 |
| FH down the line | 12% | +1.5 | +6.0 | +0.1 | +7.7±4.3 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 9% | −6.6 | +1.7 | ±0.0 | −4.9±1.9 |
Lean FH down the line: +4.5±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (1118 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Claudia | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 49% | +6.0 | +2.8 | −1.6 | +7.2±2.2 |
| BH crosscourt | 28% | +7.7 | +2.8 | +0.1 | +10.7±2.6 |
| BH down the line | 12% | +2.2 | +3.5 | ±0.0 | +5.7±3.0 |
| BH slice through the middle | 6% | −6.2 | +1.6 | +0.9 | −3.7±2.4 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 3% | −4.2 | −1.0 | +0.7 | −4.4±2.6 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +4.2±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1078 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Claudia | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 46% | −3.2 | +3.7 | ±0.0 | +0.4±2.6 |
| FH crosscourt | 30% | +0.5 | +0.6 | +0.2 | +1.4±4.1 |
| FH down the line | 21% | −0.6 | +2.6 | −1.9 | +0.1±4.8 |
| FH slice through the middle | 4% | −15.2 | +1.3 | ±0.0 | −13.9±1.3 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +1.3±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (226 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Claudia | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 35% | −2.6 | +1.9 | −0.1 | −0.8±2.0 |
| BH crosscourt | 31% | +1.5 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | +2.6±2.1 |
| BH down the line | 15% | −0.5 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | +0.2±3.6 |
| FH inside-out | 9% | +1.4 | +0.4 | −1.9 | −0.2±3.9 |
| FH through the middle | 7% | −2.7 | +1.3 | ±0.0 | −1.4±2.3 |
| FH inside-in | 4% | +0.7 | +3.3 | +0.2 | +4.2±4.2 |
Lean FH inside-in: +3.7±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (596 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Claudia Kohde Kilsch
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | +4.6±2.7 | +5.7 | −1.1 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −4.1±3.0 | −3.3 | −0.8 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | −5.5±3.3 | −6.2 | +0.7 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their backhand · rally | −5.5±3.3 | −6.2 | +0.7 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −4.1±3.0 | −3.3 | −0.8 |
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | +4.6±2.7 | +5.7 | −1.1 |
Daria Kasatkina
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | +8.1±2.3 | +3.8 | +4.3 |
| BH slice to their forehand · rally | +4.4±3.9 | +2.4 | +2.0 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +1.7±3.0 | +1.1 | +0.6 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +0.5±3.4 | +2.2 | −1.7 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their backhand · rally | +0.5±3.4 | +2.2 | −1.7 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +1.7±3.0 | +1.1 | +0.6 |
| BH slice to their forehand · rally | +4.4±3.9 | +2.4 | +2.0 |
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | +8.1±2.3 | +3.8 | +4.3 |
Against Daria Kasatkina-like opponents
| Claudia Kohde Kilsch v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 49.0% | 45.8% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Marie Bouzkova, Emma Navarro, Jaqueline Cristian, Emma Raducanu, Nao Hibino, Linda Fruhvirtova, Caroline Wozniacki, Simona Halep, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Elena Dementieva. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.