Game plan

Denis Shapovalov v Jiri Lehecka

Every number combines what Denis Shapovalov does well with what Jiri Lehecka allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Denis Shapovalov wins, best of 3 62%90%: 34%–85% · best of 5: 65%

Serve points won 67.2% / 64.6% Denis / Jiri · tour 63.5%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 56%serve 66.4% / 65.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. Both were charted enough in the last three seasons, so those carry the most weight. The result is then nudged by Denis Shapovalov's record against Jiri Lehecka's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +4.9 on serve, +1.5 on return vs expectation (420 points); head-to-head: +1.6 on serve, +6.1 on return vs expectation (222 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Denis	Jiri
Direction choice	−0.12 ±0.06 better than 26%	−0.11 ±0.11 better than 30%
Shot selection	+0.40 ±0.12 better than 87%	−0.02 ±0.14 better than 49%
Execution	−0.72 ±0.35 better than 36%	−0.37 ±0.43 better than 50%
Points left on the table	3.39 ±0.11 lower than 9%	2.73 ±0.18 lower than 37%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Denis Shapovalov −0.24, Jiri Lehecka −1.34. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Denis Shapovalov serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Denis wins	v Jiri	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	77%	77%	80.9%±3.2	51% ▲
Body	7%	65%	60%	60.8%±9.2	0% ▼
T	56%	72%	76%	72.7%±3.6	49% ▼

Optimal v Jiri Lehecka: +0.8±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +5.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Denis wins	v Jiri	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	56%	75%	77%	79.0%±3.2	51% ▼
Body	8%	69%	67%	72.3%±8.4	0% ▼
T	36%	79%	77%	83.1%±3.1	49% ▲

Optimal v Jiri Lehecka: +0.7±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +3.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Jiri Lehecka serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Jiri wins	v Denis	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	72%	71%	70.1%±3.6	42% ▼
Body	12%	60%	63%	60.3%±7.5	0% ▼
T	45%	76%	77%	77.4%±3.5	58% ▲

Optimal v Denis Shapovalov: +0.7±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +5.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Jiri wins	v Denis	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	73%	78%	77.6%±3.3	67% ▲
Body	9%	65%	66%	68.1%±7.5	9%
T	37%	72%	70%	70.3%±4.0	24% ▼

Optimal v Denis Shapovalov: +0.4±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Denis Shapovalov returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jiri	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	−0.4	+1.8	+5.6±1.8
FH crosscourt	20%	+5.5	−0.5	+1.1	+6.1±3.6
FH down the line	15%	+1.7	−4.6	+4.2	+1.3±3.8
FH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	+1.2	+0.5	−2.5±2.1
FH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.3	+3.5	+1.4	+0.6±2.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.4±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1294 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jiri	Value
BH through the middle	33%	+6.4	+0.2	+4.1	+10.7±1.6
BH slice through the middle	28%	−4.2	−0.7	+1.0	−3.9±1.8
BH down the line	12%	+4.2	±0.0	+3.7	+7.9±3.6
BH slice down the line	10%	−8.4	+0.9	+0.3	−7.1±3.2
BH crosscourt	10%	+8.8	−2.5	+1.9	+8.2±3.2

Lean BH through the middle: +7.4±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (2081 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jiri	Value
FH through the middle	58%	−3.5	−3.8	+1.1	−6.1±2.1
FH crosscourt	27%	−0.2	+0.1	−1.2	−1.3±4.1
FH down the line	12%	−1.8	−3.0	−0.9	−5.7±4.5
BH through the middle	1%	+0.1	+0.5	+2.3	+2.9±1.3
FH slice crosscourt	1%	−12.5	±0.0	+0.9	−11.6±1.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.5±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (406 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jiri	Value
BH through the middle	53%	−2.9	+1.4	+2.3	+0.8±1.5
BH crosscourt	20%	+1.0	+0.5	−2.8	−1.3±2.9
BH down the line	14%	−0.2	+1.5	+1.6	+2.9±4.0
FH through the middle	6%	−2.9	+0.1	+1.1	−1.6±2.1
BH slice through the middle	2%	−11.3	−1.5	±0.0	−12.8±2.1

Lean BH down the line: +2.9±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1157 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Jiri Lehecka returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Denis	Value
FH through the middle	36%	+4.3	−0.8	−0.8	+2.6±2.1
FH crosscourt	20%	+5.5	+1.9	+1.0	+8.5±3.6
FH slice through the middle	19%	−4.2	−1.2	+0.6	−4.8±2.0
FH slice crosscourt	10%	−4.3	−0.3	+2.6	−2.0±2.8
FH down the line	10%	+1.7	−0.9	−4.8	−4.0±4.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +7.6±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (705 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Denis	Value
BH through the middle	30%	+6.4	+1.8	+2.8	+10.9±1.8
BH slice through the middle	24%	−4.2	−0.9	+1.0	−4.1±1.9
BH crosscourt	22%	+8.8	+1.6	+3.1	+13.5±2.8
BH slice crosscourt	14%	+0.5	−1.6	+3.6	+2.5±2.8
BH down the line	5%	+4.2	+2.0	−0.3	+5.8±4.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +8.0±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (786 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Denis	Value
FH through the middle	43%	−3.5	−0.8	+0.2	−4.0±2.3
FH crosscourt	30%	−0.2	+1.8	+1.0	+2.6±4.0
FH down the line	20%	−1.8	−1.7	−4.3	−7.8±4.5
FH slice through the middle	5%	−12.7	+0.6	+0.1	−12.0±2.0
FH slice down the line	3%	−9.4	+0.3	+0.2	−9.0±2.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.9±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (210 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Denis	Value
BH through the middle	44%	−2.9	−0.5	+1.2	−2.2±1.6
BH crosscourt	30%	+1.0	+1.1	−0.9	+1.2±2.4
FH through the middle	9%	−2.9	+1.6	+0.2	−1.1±2.0
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	+5.3	−1.6	+3.5±4.4
FH inside-in	3%	+0.6	−1.7	+1.0	−0.2±3.8

Lean BH down the line: +4.4±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (626 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.