Game plan

Fabio Fognini v Stan Wawrinka

Every number combines what Fabio Fognini does well with what Stan Wawrinka allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Fabio Fognini wins, best of 3 42%90%: 19%–68% · best of 5: 39%

Serve points won 64.0% / 65.8% Fabio / Stan · tour 65.7%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 38%serve 63.7% / 66.1%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Fabio Fognini's record against Stan Wawrinka's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +1.4 on serve, +1.3 on return vs expectation (965 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Fabio	Stan
Direction choice	±0.00 ±0.06 better than 58%	+0.15 ±0.05 better than 88%
Shot selection	−0.12 ±0.12 better than 36%	−0.72 ±0.08 better than 5%
Execution	−1.06 ±0.38 better than 24%	−0.11 ±0.23 better than 63%
Points left on the table	2.46 ±0.10 lower than 67%	2.40 ±0.08 lower than 74%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Fabio Fognini −1.85, Stan Wawrinka −0.66. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Fabio Fognini serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Fabio wins	v Stan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	71%	73%	71.3%±3.7	57% ▲
Body	13%	56%	66%	58.4%±6.8	0% ▼
T	44%	68%	75%	68.2%±4.0	43%

Optimal v Stan Wawrinka: +0.7±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Fabio wins	v Stan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	67%	74%	68.5%±4.0	46%
Body	13%	57%	66%	59.9%±7.0	0% ▼
T	41%	67%	73%	68.7%±4.2	54% ▲

Optimal v Stan Wawrinka: +0.5±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Stan Wawrinka serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Stan wins	v Fabio	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	72%	69%	67.7%±3.8	41% ▼
Body	9%	63%	73%	73.2%±7.1	0% ▼
T	46%	77%	75%	76.7%±3.4	59% ▲

Optimal v Fabio Fognini: +0.3±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Stan wins	v Fabio	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	73%	71%	71.0%±3.6	65% ▲
Body	4%	63%	71%	70.4%±8.6	4%
T	44%	73%	71%	71.6%±4.2	31% ▼

Optimal v Fabio Fognini: +0.3±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +0.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Fabio Fognini returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Stan	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.3	+1.0	−1.1	+4.2±1.7
FH down the line	18%	+1.7	+4.7	−0.8	+5.7±3.4
FH slice through the middle	16%	−4.2	+0.2	±0.0	−4.0±1.9
FH crosscourt	14%	+5.5	−0.3	−1.0	+4.3±3.5
FH slice down the line	5%	−4.3	+0.8	−0.3	−3.8±3.1

Lean FH down the line: +3.2±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (717 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Stan	Value
BH through the middle	35%	+6.4	+0.4	+0.2	+7.0±1.7
BH crosscourt	22%	+8.8	−0.2	+1.0	+9.6±2.5
BH slice through the middle	19%	−4.2	+1.4	+0.7	−2.1±1.8
BH slice crosscourt	13%	+0.5	−0.8	+1.0	+0.7±2.5
BH down the line	6%	+4.2	−1.0	+0.2	+3.4±4.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.7±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (814 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Stan	Value
FH through the middle	50%	−3.5	−0.5	−1.3	−5.2±2.3
FH down the line	35%	−1.8	−4.1	−3.9	−9.7±4.0
FH crosscourt	15%	−0.2	−0.2	−1.0	−1.4±3.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.8±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (145 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Stan	Value
BH through the middle	39%	−2.9	−0.6	−0.4	−3.9±1.5
BH crosscourt	37%	+1.0	+0.2	−0.2	+1.1±2.0
BH down the line	14%	−0.2	−1.0	−1.0	−2.2±4.0
FH through the middle	3%	−2.9	+0.1	−1.3	−4.0±1.9
BH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.0	−2.7	−0.7	−7.3±2.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.1±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (690 returns charted)

Stan Wawrinka returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fabio	Value
FH through the middle	30%	+4.3	−2.6	+1.3	+3.0±1.7
FH slice through the middle	27%	−4.2	+0.7	+0.9	−2.6±1.8
FH crosscourt	15%	+5.5	−0.1	−0.3	+5.1±3.4
FH slice crosscourt	13%	−4.3	+2.3	−1.5	−3.6±2.1
FH down the line	8%	+1.7	−2.6	−0.3	−1.2±3.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.7±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (2553 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fabio	Value
BH slice through the middle	40%	−4.2	±0.0	+2.1	−2.2±1.8
BH slice crosscourt	30%	+0.5	+1.5	+3.8	+5.9±2.3
BH through the middle	12%	+6.4	−3.1	+0.6	+4.0±1.9
BH crosscourt	8%	+8.8	−0.5	+2.8	+11.1±2.7
BH slice down the line	6%	−8.4	+0.4	−1.7	−9.6±3.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +9.2±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (2669 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fabio	Value
FH through the middle	45%	−3.5	−1.3	+0.8	−4.0±2.1
FH crosscourt	33%	−0.2	−1.8	+0.6	−1.4±3.6
FH down the line	10%	−1.8	−0.5	+0.9	−1.4±4.5
FH slice through the middle	6%	−12.7	+0.5	−0.8	−13.0±2.0
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−12.5	−0.3	±0.0	−12.8±1.9

Lean FH down the line: +2.2±4.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (745 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fabio	Value
BH crosscourt	31%	+1.0	+0.4	+1.7	+3.1±2.1
BH through the middle	28%	−2.9	+0.7	+0.4	−1.8±1.6
BH slice crosscourt	16%	−4.0	−4.1	+0.6	−7.5±1.9
BH slice through the middle	9%	−11.3	−1.7	+1.1	−11.9±2.1
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	−2.1	−0.4	−2.8±4.6
FH inside-in	4%	+0.6	+2.6	+0.6	+3.8±4.1

Lean FH inside-in: +5.8±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1996 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Fabio Fognini

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their forehand · rally	+4.3±6.6	+1.3	+3.0
BH slice to the middle · return	+3.2±3.0	−0.1	+3.3
FH volley to their backhand · rally	+1.9±6.7	+1.7	+0.3
FH to their backhand · return +1	+1.2±5.1	+3.0	−1.7
FH slice to the middle · rally	+0.5±3.3	−0.3	+0.9
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+0.1±7.9	+4.6	−4.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−9.5±4.0	−7.4	−2.1
FH to their forehand · return +1	−7.2±4.9	−3.9	−3.3
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−6.2±5.8	−2.8	−3.4
BH to their backhand · return +1	−5.6±4.8	−2.7	−2.9
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−5.5±4.3	−0.4	−5.1

Stan Wawrinka

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their backhand · return	+3.9±3.6	−3.0	+6.9
BH slice to the middle · return	+2.1±2.8	−1.0	+3.0
BH slice to the middle · return +1	+1.7±3.1	+0.6	+1.2
FH to the middle · return +1	+0.7±3.6	+0.9	−0.2
FH slice to the middle · rally	+0.7±3.2	−1.6	+2.3
BH to the middle · rally	+0.5±2.8	−1.3	+1.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−6.7±4.4	−1.1	−5.6
FH to their backhand · rally	−5.6±4.0	−3.5	−2.1
FH to their backhand · return	−5.2±5.4	−3.2	−2.0
FH to the middle · rally	−5.1±3.1	−0.4	−4.7
BH slice to their forehand · rally	−4.4±3.8	−3.9	−0.5

Against Stan Wawrinka-like opponents

Fabio Fognini v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	58.4%	35.2%
Players most similar to Stan Wawrinka	6	61.0%	35.2%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Grigor Dimitrov, Christopher Oconnell, Benjamin Bonzi, Richard Gasquet, Gregoire Barrere, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Roger Federer, Tommy Haas, Ivan Ljubicic. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.