Game plan

Fernando Verdasco v Daniil Medvedev

Every number combines what Fernando Verdasco does well with what Daniil Medvedev allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Fernando Verdasco wins, best of 3 24%90%: 9%–46% · best of 5: 18%

Serve points won 58.9% / 64.6% Fernando / Daniil · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 27%serve 60.0% / 64.8%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Fernando Verdasco's record against Daniil Medvedev's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −1.3 on serve, +1.2 on return vs expectation (2203 points); head-to-head: −5.8 on serve, −3.9 on return vs expectation (248 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Fernando	Daniil
Direction choice	+0.12 ±0.05 better than 85%	+0.01 ±0.04 better than 58%
Shot selection	−0.03 ±0.12 better than 48%	−0.06 ±0.04 better than 46%
Execution	−0.18 ±0.42 better than 58%	+1.24 ±0.16 better than 98%
Points left on the table	2.65 ±0.10 lower than 45%	2.31 ±0.06 lower than 84%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Fernando Verdasco serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Fernando wins	v Daniil	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	72%	69%	67.5%±3.7	52% ▲
Body	11%	57%	58%	51.8%±6.4	0% ▼
T	50%	65%	71%	59.7%±3.4	48% ▼

Optimal v Daniil Medvedev: +0.7±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +5.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Fernando wins	v Daniil	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	57%	69%	69%	65.6%±3.0	52% ▼
Body	9%	63%	58%	58.3%±7.2	0% ▼
T	34%	78%	70%	76.5%±3.8	48% ▲

Optimal v Daniil Medvedev: +0.6±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +7.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Daniil Medvedev serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Daniil wins	v Fernando	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	74%	71%	73.0%±3.0	41% ▼
Body	4%	63%	63%	62.8%±7.0	0% ▼
T	46%	78%	76%	79.1%±2.9	59% ▲

Optimal v Fernando Verdasco: +0.4±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Daniil wins	v Fernando	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	78%	74%	78.6%±3.2	40% ▼
Body	5%	60%	62%	59.1%±7.0	0% ▼
T	47%	74%	77%	78.7%±2.8	60% ▲

Optimal v Fernando Verdasco: +0.8±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +0.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Fernando Verdasco returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniil	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.3	+0.7	+1.6	+6.5±1.6
FH crosscourt	32%	+5.5	+1.4	−0.7	+6.2±2.9
FH down the line	13%	+1.7	−1.1	±0.0	+0.6±3.4
FH slice through the middle	3%	−4.2	−0.9	+1.1	−4.0±1.7
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.3	+0.6	−0.7	−4.4±2.3

Lean FH through the middle: +1.5±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (684 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniil	Value
BH through the middle	32%	+6.4	−0.4	+2.0	+8.0±1.5
BH crosscourt	22%	+8.8	−4.5	+1.1	+5.4±2.5
BH slice through the middle	21%	−4.2	±0.0	−0.6	−4.8±1.6
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	+1.3	+1.0	+6.6±3.4
BH slice crosscourt	7%	+0.5	−3.7	−3.9	−7.0±2.7

Lean BH through the middle: +5.8±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (1076 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniil	Value
FH crosscourt	49%	−0.2	−0.3	−0.3	−0.8±3.3
FH through the middle	35%	−3.5	−1.7	+1.1	−4.1±2.1
FH down the line	16%	−1.8	−0.5	−1.3	−3.6±3.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.6±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (232 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniil	Value
BH through the middle	39%	−2.9	+1.5	+0.4	−1.0±1.6
BH crosscourt	33%	+1.0	+1.3	+1.6	+3.9±2.4
BH down the line	14%	−0.2	+4.4	+0.6	+4.8±3.7
FH through the middle	7%	−2.9	+1.5	+1.1	−0.2±1.8
FH inside-in	6%	+0.6	+2.0	−0.3	+2.2±3.4

Lean BH down the line: +3.4±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (506 returns charted)

Daniil Medvedev returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fernando	Value
FH through the middle	47%	+4.3	+1.4	+1.0	+6.6±1.6
FH crosscourt	22%	+5.5	+3.4	+3.4	+12.4±2.7
FH down the line	15%	+1.7	−0.5	+2.9	+4.1±3.1
FH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−1.1	−1.1	−6.4±1.9
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	−0.1	−0.6	−5.0±2.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.9±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (5958 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fernando	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.4	+3.1	+1.6	+11.1±1.2
BH crosscourt	25%	+8.8	+2.4	+3.8	+15.0±2.1
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	+1.6	−0.8	+5.0±3.1
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−1.9	+2.2	−3.9±1.8
BH slice crosscourt	4%	+0.5	−4.5	+3.7	−0.2±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.2±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (4981 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fernando	Value
FH through the middle	50%	−3.5	+1.6	+1.3	−0.6±1.7
FH crosscourt	27%	−0.2	−1.0	+0.8	−0.5±3.2
FH down the line	17%	−1.8	+1.7	−6.1	−6.2±3.8
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	−0.8	+0.9	−12.6±1.9
BH through the middle	2%	+0.1	+1.2	+1.7	+3.0±1.8

Lean BH through the middle: +4.9±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (1558 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fernando	Value
BH through the middle	51%	−2.9	+2.9	+1.7	+1.8±1.6
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.0	+1.9	−1.2	+1.7±2.2
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	+1.2	−0.1	+0.9±4.2
FH through the middle	1%	−2.9	−1.0	+1.3	−2.6±2.0
FH inside-in	1%	+0.6	−2.8	+0.8	−1.5±3.8

Lean BH through the middle: +0.2±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (2951 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.