Game plan

Francisco Cerundolo v Cameron Norrie

Every number combines what Francisco Cerundolo does well with what Cameron Norrie allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Francisco Cerundolo wins, best of 3 53%90%: 24%–81% · best of 5: 54%

Serve points won 62.6% / 62.0% Francisco / Cameron · tour 63.5%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 41%serve 61.8% / 63.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. Both were charted enough in the last three seasons, so those carry the most weight. The result is then nudged by Francisco Cerundolo's record against Cameron Norrie's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +1.2 on serve, +7.1 on return vs expectation (502 points); head-to-head: +11.8 on serve, +8.6 on return vs expectation (196 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Francisco	Cameron
Direction choice	+0.11 ±0.06 better than 82%	−0.04 ±0.08 better than 46%
Shot selection	+0.26 ±0.12 better than 76%	+0.49 ±0.17 better than 92%
Execution	−0.40 ±0.49 better than 48%	+0.02 ±0.39 better than 69%
Points left on the table	2.23 ±0.08 lower than 89%	2.83 ±0.14 lower than 28%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Francisco Cerundolo +0.46, Cameron Norrie +0.23. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Francisco Cerundolo serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Francisco wins	v Cameron	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	65%	75%	67.0%±4.7	50% ▲
Body	16%	61%	62%	60.1%±8.3	3% ▼
T	40%	69%	79%	73.6%±4.7	47% ▲

Optimal v Cameron Norrie: +0.3±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Francisco wins	v Cameron	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	63%	79%	70.5%±4.7	52%
Body	16%	66%	63%	65.9%±8.7	3% ▼
T	32%	67%	69%	63.3%±5.7	45% ▲

Optimal v Cameron Norrie: +0.2±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Cameron Norrie serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Cameron wins	v Francisco	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	37%	70%	72%	69.3%±4.9	51% ▲
Body	9%	63%	62%	61.7%±9.2	9%
T	53%	67%	70%	62.0%±4.9	40% ▼

Optimal v Francisco Cerundolo: +0.5±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Cameron wins	v Francisco	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	62%	71%	68%	66.2%±4.4	57% ▼
Body	8%	64%	61%	62.2%±9.8	0% ▼
T	30%	79%	67%	74.6%±5.3	43% ▲

Optimal v Francisco Cerundolo: +0.8±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +6.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Francisco Cerundolo returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Cameron	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.3	+0.8	±0.0	+5.1±2.1
FH crosscourt	25%	+5.5	+0.1	+2.8	+8.4±3.8
FH down the line	15%	+1.7	−0.4	−1.9	−0.6±4.4
FH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−1.1	−1.2	−6.5±2.3
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	−1.2	−0.6	−6.1±3.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.2±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (715 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Cameron	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	−0.8	+2.7	+8.3±1.7
BH crosscourt	29%	+8.8	−1.2	+4.3	+12.0±2.7
BH down the line	12%	+4.2	+3.1	−1.5	+5.8±4.1
BH slice through the middle	7%	−4.2	−2.6	+2.2	−4.6±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	5%	+0.5	−1.6	+2.1	+1.0±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.8±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (857 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Cameron	Value
FH through the middle	47%	−3.5	+1.8	−0.5	−2.2±2.5
FH crosscourt	35%	−0.2	+2.4	+1.5	+3.6±4.2
FH down the line	18%	−1.8	−0.7	−1.4	−3.9±4.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.1±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (152 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Cameron	Value
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.0	−1.2	±0.0	−0.1±2.6
BH through the middle	37%	−2.9	−1.0	+1.5	−2.3±1.9
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	−3.7	+0.9	−3.0±4.9
FH through the middle	7%	−2.9	+1.0	−0.5	−2.4±2.1
FH inside-out	6%	+1.0	−1.1	−1.4	−1.6±3.6
FH inside-in	4%	+0.6	−0.4	+1.5	+1.6±4.0

Lean FH inside-in: +3.0±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (564 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Cameron Norrie returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Francisco	Value
FH through the middle	42%	+4.3	−0.2	+1.8	+5.9±2.1
FH crosscourt	23%	+5.5	+2.4	+4.2	+12.1±3.6
FH slice through the middle	13%	−4.2	−0.8	+0.8	−4.2±2.3
FH down the line	12%	+1.7	−2.2	+3.0	+2.5±4.2
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.3	+0.3	+1.1	−3.0±2.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +7.5±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (709 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Francisco	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.4	+0.7	+0.7	+7.9±1.8
BH crosscourt	35%	+8.8	−0.8	+1.7	+9.7±3.0
BH down the line	8%	+4.2	−0.4	+1.5	+5.3±3.8
BH slice through the middle	5%	−4.2	+0.8	−0.3	−3.7±2.5
BH slice down the line	2%	−8.4	−0.4	−0.8	−9.6±3.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.5±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (862 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Francisco	Value
FH through the middle	47%	−3.5	−0.5	+1.3	−2.7±2.5
FH crosscourt	43%	−0.2	+0.8	−1.0	−0.4±4.0
FH down the line	10%	−1.8	−2.7	+6.4	+1.9±4.5

Lean FH down the line: +3.2±4.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (263 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Francisco	Value
BH crosscourt	44%	+1.0	−0.7	−2.4	−2.1±3.0
BH through the middle	31%	−2.9	+1.5	+0.2	−1.2±2.1
FH inside-in	10%	+0.6	−0.1	−1.0	−0.5±4.2
FH through the middle	8%	−2.9	+0.8	+1.3	−0.8±2.2
BH down the line	4%	−0.2	−0.9	+0.2	−1.0±4.1

Lean FH inside-in: +0.8±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (490 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.