Game plan

Gabriela Sabatini v Francesca Schiavone

Every number combines what Gabriela Sabatini does well with what Francesca Schiavone allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Gabriela Sabatini wins, best of 3 71%90%: 33%–94% · best of 5: 76%

Serve points won 58.5% / 54.3% Gabriela / Francesca · tour 55.0%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 71%serve 58.5% / 54.3%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Gabriela Sabatini's record against Francesca Schiavone's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Gabriela	Francesca
Direction choice	+0.07 ±0.21 better than 69%	+0.21 ±0.11 better than 86%
Shot selection	−0.44 ±0.25 better than 13%	−0.36 ±0.28 better than 18%
Execution	+0.70 ±0.72 better than 85%	+0.31 ±0.80 better than 72%
Points left on the table	3.01 ±0.32 lower than 11%	2.64 ±0.18 lower than 46%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Gabriela Sabatini serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Gabriela wins	v Francesca	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	32%	63%	60%	57.3%±9.7	47% ▲
Body	24%	62%	63%	67.4%±10.8	23%
T	44%	62%	68%	62.2%±9.5	30% ▼

Optimal v Francesca Schiavone: +0.2±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +5.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Gabriela wins	v Francesca	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	64%	67%	65.4%±8.2	58% ▲
Body	18%	65%	60%	68.4%±11.8	3% ▼
T	31%	60%	69%	64.7%±10.0	39% ▲

Optimal v Francesca Schiavone: +0.3±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +2.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Francesca Schiavone serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Francesca wins	v Gabriela	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	73%	59%	66.1%±8.7	56% ▲
Body	13%	59%	48%	50.6%±12.6	0% ▼
T	46%	60%	64%	55.6%±9.8	44% ▼

Optimal v Gabriela Sabatini: +1.0±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +6.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Francesca wins	v Gabriela	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	61%	62%	57.0%±8.6	48% ▼
Body	9%	57%	53%	53.3%±14.1	0% ▼
T	37%	66%	58%	59.3%±11.1	52% ▲

Optimal v Gabriela Sabatini: +0.8±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Gabriela Sabatini returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Francesca	Value
FH through the middle	38%	+4.2	−1.1	−3.2	−0.2±3.0
FH down the line	33%	+1.5	+2.8	−0.5	+3.8±4.7
FH slice through the middle	14%	−6.7	+2.0	−0.1	−4.8±2.4
FH crosscourt	9%	+5.3	+2.2	−0.9	+6.6±4.0
FH slice down the line	7%	−10.5	+2.6	±0.0	−7.9±2.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.1±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (210 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Francesca	Value
BH slice crosscourt	29%	−4.2	+3.6	+0.4	−0.2±2.9
BH slice through the middle	26%	−6.2	+3.9	−1.1	−3.4±2.5
BH through the middle	24%	+6.0	−6.6	+1.5	+0.9±2.8
BH crosscourt	10%	+7.7	±0.0	+1.3	+9.0±3.5
BH down the line	8%	+2.2	−1.2	−2.0	−1.0±4.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +9.3±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (257 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Francesca	Value
FH down the line	40%	−0.6	+4.1	−2.0	+1.5±5.2
FH through the middle	30%	−3.2	+0.9	+0.8	−1.4±3.0
FH slice through the middle	13%	−15.2	+2.2	±0.0	−13.0±1.5
FH crosscourt	10%	+0.5	+1.6	−1.4	+0.7±3.9
FH slice down the line	7%	−14.1	+3.5	±0.0	−10.6±1.6

Lean FH down the line: +3.6±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (92 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Francesca	Value
FH inside-out	26%	+1.4	+0.1	−2.0	−0.6±4.2
BH slice crosscourt	19%	−7.5	+3.6	−1.2	−5.1±2.1
BH crosscourt	15%	+1.5	+0.7	−0.6	+1.5±3.3
BH through the middle	12%	−2.6	+0.2	−0.9	−3.3±2.4
BH slice through the middle	11%	−11.7	+0.8	±0.0	−10.9±1.3

Lean FH inside-out: +2.4±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (84 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Francesca Schiavone returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Gabriela	Value
FH through the middle	37%	+4.2	+1.9	−2.2	+3.8±3.1
FH down the line	31%	+1.5	+1.7	+1.5	+4.7±4.7
FH slice through the middle	15%	−6.7	+0.4	−0.3	−6.6±2.4
FH crosscourt	10%	+5.3	+0.3	+2.5	+8.1±4.1
FH slice down the line	5%	−10.5	−1.1	±0.0	−11.6±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.1±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (224 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Gabriela	Value
BH slice through the middle	29%	−6.2	+0.8	+0.4	−5.0±2.5
BH through the middle	26%	+6.0	+0.8	−2.3	+4.5±2.9
BH crosscourt	18%	+7.7	−1.7	+1.2	+7.2±3.6
BH slice crosscourt	15%	−4.2	+0.6	+3.8	+0.3±2.9
BH down the line	9%	+2.2	+0.7	−0.2	+2.7±4.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.1±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (242 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Gabriela	Value
FH through the middle	50%	−3.2	+1.6	+0.4	−1.2±3.1
FH down the line	19%	−0.6	+2.0	+0.2	+1.7±4.7
FH crosscourt	18%	+0.5	+1.8	+4.5	+6.9±4.0
FH slice through the middle	13%	−15.2	+0.4	±0.0	−14.8±1.3

Lean FH through the middle: −0.2±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (62 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Gabriela	Value
BH through the middle	40%	−2.6	+0.1	−1.2	−3.7±2.6
BH crosscourt	15%	+1.5	+1.2	+0.1	+2.8±3.0
FH through the middle	12%	−2.7	+0.2	+0.4	−2.0±2.4
BH down the line	11%	−0.5	−0.2	±0.0	−0.7±3.9
FH inside-out	10%	+1.4	+0.9	+0.2	+2.5±3.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.1±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (102 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Gabriela Sabatini

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · rally	+5.5±3.4	+3.0	+2.5
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+5.4±3.6	+6.2	−0.8
FH to their forehand · return +1	+4.8±5.7	+1.9	+2.9
BH to their backhand · rally	+4.5±3.9	+2.3	+2.2
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.7±5.4	−0.7	+4.4
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+2.9±5.8	−1.3	+4.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	−5.9±3.7	−4.6	−1.3
FH to the middle · return	−5.4±3.8	−2.2	−3.2
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.7±4.6	−0.2	−3.5
FH to their backhand · return	−2.2±5.7	+1.3	−3.6
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.2±4.3	−0.5	−1.7

Francesca Schiavone

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+7.6±3.4	+2.9	+4.6
BH slice to the middle · rally	+4.6±3.3	+0.9	+3.7
BH slice to their forehand · rally	+4.2±5.0	+0.3	+3.9
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.6±5.2	+2.9	+0.7
BH to their forehand · rally	+2.7±6.5	+2.6	+0.1
FH to the middle · rally	+1.7±3.5	+1.3	+0.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · rally	−4.4±3.3	+1.5	−5.9
FH to their forehand · return +1	−4.1±5.7	−2.5	−1.6
FH to their backhand · return +1	−3.2±5.8	−3.0	−0.2
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−2.5±5.5	+2.1	−4.6
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.5±4.6	+0.3	−1.8

Against Francesca Schiavone-like opponents

Gabriela Sabatini v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	56.2%	46.4%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Magdalena Frech, Karolina Muchova, Marta Kostyuk, Leylah Fernandez, Petra Martic, Ashleigh Barty, Kiki Bertens, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Saisai Zheng, Amelie Mauresmo. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.