Game plan
Jared Donaldson v Reilly Opelka
Every number combines what Jared Donaldson does well with what Reilly Opelka allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Jared Donaldson's record against Reilly Opelka's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Jared | Reilly |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | +0.02 ±0.10 better than 63% | −0.19 ±0.11 better than 16% |
| Shot selection | −0.01 ±0.23 better than 52% | +0.14 ±0.11 better than 69% |
| Execution | +1.08 ±0.69 better than 97% | −1.23 ±0.68 better than 18% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Jared Donaldson serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Jared wins | v Reilly | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 38% | 80% | 80% | 85.7%±5.6 | 31% ▼ |
| Body | 6% | 65% | 70% | 71.4%±12.2 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 56% | 75% | 83% | 83.3%±5.5 | 69% ▲ |
Optimal v Reilly Opelka: +0.7±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Jared wins | v Reilly | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 51% | 70% | 81% | 79.1%±6.7 | 64% ▲ |
| Body | 6% | 61% | 72% | 70.5%±12.6 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 43% | 67% | 80% | 76.1%±7.4 | 36% ▼ |
Optimal v Reilly Opelka: +0.4±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Reilly Opelka serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Reilly wins | v Jared | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 50% | 77% | 73% | 77.4%±6.2 | 63% ▲ |
| Body | 9% | 62% | 61% | 59.6%±13.9 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 41% | 80% | 70% | 76.6%±7.1 | 37% ▼ |
Optimal v Jared Donaldson: +0.9±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +1.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Reilly wins | v Jared | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 49% | 82% | 74% | 82.7%±5.6 | 62% ▲ |
| Body | 7% | 61% | 63% | 61.1%±14.1 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 44% | 77% | 67% | 72.1%±7.5 | 38% ▼ |
Optimal v Jared Donaldson: +0.9±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +6.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Jared Donaldson returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Reilly | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 50% | +4.3 | +3.6 | +1.2 | +9.0±2.7 |
| FH down the line | 26% | +1.7 | +5.5 | +4.4 | +11.7±4.4 |
| FH crosscourt | 12% | +5.5 | +2.9 | +1.7 | +10.1±3.9 |
| FH slice through the middle | 8% | −4.2 | +0.7 | −0.3 | −3.8±1.8 |
| FH slice down the line | 4% | −4.3 | +0.3 | −1.9 | −5.8±2.6 |
Lean FH down the line: +3.4±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (117 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Reilly | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 49% | +6.4 | +3.2 | +0.8 | +10.4±2.5 |
| BH crosscourt | 27% | +8.8 | +3.0 | +0.3 | +12.0±3.4 |
| BH down the line | 24% | +4.2 | +2.7 | −2.0 | +4.9±4.4 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +2.6±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (94 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Reilly | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 51% | −2.9 | +2.1 | −1.1 | −1.9±2.1 |
| BH crosscourt | 32% | +1.0 | +0.7 | −2.1 | −0.3±2.8 |
| BH down the line | 17% | −0.2 | +2.0 | −0.1 | +1.7±4.3 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +0.5±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (53 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
Reilly Opelka returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Jared | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 41% | +4.3 | −3.8 | +5.0 | +5.5±2.6 |
| FH down the line | 21% | +1.7 | −0.8 | +3.8 | +4.7±4.0 |
| FH slice through the middle | 16% | −4.2 | −2.6 | ±0.0 | −6.9±1.5 |
| FH crosscourt | 13% | +5.5 | −1.9 | +2.5 | +6.1±3.9 |
| FH slice down the line | 4% | −4.3 | +1.2 | ±0.0 | −3.0±2.2 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +3.4±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (809 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Jared | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 57% | +6.4 | −2.2 | +4.1 | +8.3±2.4 |
| BH crosscourt | 24% | +8.8 | −2.2 | +2.7 | +9.3±3.0 |
| BH slice through the middle | 7% | −4.2 | −1.9 | +1.9 | −4.1±2.3 |
| BH down the line | 7% | +4.2 | +2.8 | +3.6 | +10.6±4.2 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 3% | +0.5 | −1.7 | +1.6 | +0.4±2.6 |
Lean BH down the line: +3.4±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (713 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Jared | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 43% | −3.5 | −4.5 | +2.4 | −5.6±2.8 |
| FH down the line | 31% | −1.8 | −4.5 | +3.4 | −2.9±4.6 |
| FH crosscourt | 15% | −0.2 | −5.8 | −0.9 | −6.9±4.2 |
| FH slice through the middle | 6% | −12.7 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −12.6±1.4 |
| BH through the middle | 3% | +0.1 | −0.5 | +2.3 | +1.9±1.7 |
Lean FH down the line: +2.4±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (219 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Jared | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 53% | −2.9 | −2.9 | +2.3 | −3.5±2.3 |
| BH crosscourt | 34% | +1.0 | −3.5 | −0.2 | −2.7±3.0 |
| BH down the line | 9% | −0.2 | −1.5 | +1.9 | +0.2±4.9 |
| FH through the middle | 2% | −2.9 | +0.3 | +2.4 | −0.2±2.2 |
| FH inside-out | 2% | +1.0 | +0.7 | +3.4 | +5.1±3.2 |
Lean BH down the line: +2.9±4.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (482 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Jared Donaldson
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their forehand · rally | +7.9±5.6 | +4.9 | +3.0 |
| FH to the middle · return | +6.7±3.3 | +6.7 | ±0.0 |
| BH to the middle · return | +6.1±3.0 | +6.7 | −0.6 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | +3.5±4.9 | +1.5 | +2.0 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +3.2±3.6 | +0.9 | +2.2 |
| FH to the middle · rally | +3.1±2.9 | +2.2 | +0.9 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | −1.7±4.6 | +0.1 | −1.7 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | −1.1±3.7 | +0.3 | −1.4 |
| BH to the middle · rally | −0.4±2.6 | −0.3 | −0.1 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | +0.5±2.9 | +0.1 | +0.4 |
| BH to their backhand · serve +1 | +1.8±4.5 | +2.1 | −0.3 |
Reilly Opelka
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to the middle · return | +3.7±2.8 | −1.7 | +5.4 |
| FH to the middle · return | +3.2±3.4 | −4.3 | +7.5 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | −1.4±3.4 | −4.1 | +2.7 |
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | −1.8±3.5 | −2.8 | +1.0 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | −2.4±4.4 | −0.9 | −1.5 |
| FH to their forehand · return +1 | −2.8±5.5 | −4.8 | +2.0 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their forehand · rally | −9.1±3.5 | −4.4 | −4.7 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −8.4±3.4 | −4.7 | −3.7 |
| FH to the middle · rally | −5.3±3.1 | −4.3 | −1.0 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | −4.4±4.9 | −2.0 | −2.4 |
| BH to the middle · rally | −3.9±2.9 | −4.3 | +0.4 |
Against Reilly Opelka-like opponents
| Jared Donaldson v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 64.9% | 39.0% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Arthur Rinderknech, Zhizhen Zhang, Zizou Bergs, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Gabriel Diallo, Nicolas Jarry, Milos Raonic, John Isner, Sam Querrey, Lukas Rosol. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.