Game plan
Jesper De Jong v Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Every number combines what Jesper De Jong does well with what Camilo Ugo Carabelli allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Jesper De Jong's record against Camilo Ugo Carabelli's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −10.8 on serve, +7.2 on return vs expectation (131 points); head-to-head: −0.8 on serve, −1.8 on return vs expectation (453 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Jesper | Camilo |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | −0.14 ±0.06 better than 21% | −0.26 ±0.08 better than 7% |
| Shot selection | +0.30 ±0.12 better than 80% | −0.62 ±0.47 better than 8% |
| Execution | −0.72 ±0.35 better than 36% | −0.37 ±0.45 better than 50% |
| Points left on the table | 2.79 ±0.11 lower than 32% | 2.74 ±0.12 lower than 36% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Jesper De Jong serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Jesper wins | v Camilo | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 44% | 73% | 70% | 69.7%±7.5 | 39% ▼ |
| Body | 7% | 54% | 67% | 58.5%±13.0 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 48% | 81% | 74% | 80.6%±5.9 | 61% ▲ |
Optimal v Camilo Ugo Carabelli: +0.9±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +6.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Jesper wins | v Camilo | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 44% | 73% | 67% | 67.1%±7.6 | 40% ▼ |
| Body | 9% | 56% | 58% | 50.3%±14.2 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 47% | 71% | 71% | 70.5%±8.2 | 60% ▲ |
Optimal v Camilo Ugo Carabelli: +0.4±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Camilo wins | v Jesper | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 31% | 75% | 72% | 74.0%±7.7 | 44% ▲ |
| Body | 28% | 62% | 64% | 62.3%±9.7 | 15% ▼ |
| T | 41% | 68% | 75% | 68.5%±7.6 | 41% |
Optimal v Jesper De Jong: +0.8±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Camilo wins | v Jesper | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 33% | 68% | 73% | 68.5%±8.1 | 46% ▲ |
| Body | 14% | 59% | 58% | 53.8%±12.3 | 2% ▼ |
| T | 52% | 67% | 64% | 58.0%±8.7 | 52% |
Optimal v Jesper De Jong: +0.5±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +7.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Jesper De Jong returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Camilo | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 50% | +4.3 | −0.1 | −0.3 | +3.9±2.7 |
| FH down the line | 18% | +1.7 | −1.9 | +0.3 | +0.1±4.4 |
| FH crosscourt | 15% | +5.5 | +0.1 | +2.2 | +7.8±4.4 |
| FH slice through the middle | 12% | −4.2 | −2.1 | −0.4 | −6.6±2.1 |
| FH slice down the line | 5% | −4.3 | −0.9 | −1.3 | −6.5±2.7 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +5.9±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (543 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Camilo | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 37% | +6.4 | −0.2 | −1.0 | +5.2±2.4 |
| BH slice through the middle | 18% | −4.2 | −1.3 | −1.3 | −6.8±2.1 |
| BH crosscourt | 18% | +8.8 | −2.8 | −0.9 | +5.1±3.4 |
| BH down the line | 15% | +4.2 | −1.5 | −1.4 | +1.3±4.4 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 8% | +0.5 | −0.8 | −0.6 | −0.9±2.7 |
Lean BH through the middle: +4.0±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (672 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Camilo | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 61% | −3.5 | −0.7 | −0.5 | −4.7±2.8 |
| FH crosscourt | 21% | −0.2 | −0.4 | +1.5 | +0.9±4.4 |
| FH down the line | 18% | −1.8 | +0.7 | +0.5 | −0.6±4.6 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +3.7±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (156 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Camilo | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 43% | −2.9 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | −2.3±2.4 |
| BH crosscourt | 26% | +1.0 | −0.9 | −0.9 | −0.7±3.2 |
| FH through the middle | 11% | −2.9 | +0.9 | −0.5 | −2.5±2.4 |
| FH inside-out | 8% | +1.0 | +2.1 | +0.5 | +3.6±3.7 |
| BH down the line | 7% | −0.2 | −2.4 | −0.7 | −3.3±4.7 |
Lean FH inside-out: +5.1±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (442 returns charted)
Camilo Ugo Carabelli returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Jesper | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 39% | +4.3 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +4.5±2.7 |
| FH slice through the middle | 25% | −4.2 | −1.2 | −1.0 | −6.4±2.3 |
| FH down the line | 15% | +1.7 | −2.2 | −2.4 | −2.9±4.1 |
| FH crosscourt | 9% | +5.5 | +0.1 | −3.4 | +2.2±3.9 |
| FH slice down the line | 8% | −4.3 | −1.2 | −2.0 | −7.4±2.8 |
Lean FH through the middle: +5.4±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (137 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Jesper | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 42% | +6.4 | +1.5 | −2.1 | +5.8±2.5 |
| BH crosscourt | 27% | +8.8 | +0.5 | −1.4 | +7.9±3.3 |
| BH down the line | 21% | +4.2 | −0.4 | +0.1 | +3.9±4.5 |
| BH slice down the line | 3% | −8.4 | +0.2 | −3.6 | −11.8±2.8 |
| BH slice through the middle | 3% | −4.2 | +0.4 | −2.3 | −6.1±2.1 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +3.3±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (172 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Jesper | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 65% | −3.5 | −0.6 | −0.8 | −4.9±2.5 |
| FH down the line | 19% | −1.8 | +0.2 | −2.4 | −4.0±3.8 |
| FH crosscourt | 16% | −0.2 | +0.9 | +0.2 | +0.8±3.6 |
Lean FH through the middle: −1.1±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (43 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Jesper | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 33% | +1.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.7±3.0 |
| BH through the middle | 22% | −2.9 | −2.0 | −1.1 | −5.9±2.1 |
| FH through the middle | 19% | −2.9 | +0.2 | −0.8 | −3.5±2.0 |
| FH inside-out | 18% | +1.0 | +1.0 | −2.4 | −0.3±3.3 |
| BH down the line | 7% | −0.2 | −3.6 | −1.0 | −4.8±4.1 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +2.9±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (94 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Jesper De Jong
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their backhand · return +1 | +5.0±3.8 | +3.4 | +1.5 |
| FH to their backhand · return +1 | +4.6±4.7 | +2.2 | +2.4 |
| FH to their forehand · return | +3.1±5.8 | −0.9 | +4.0 |
| FH to the middle · rally | +2.7±2.8 | +2.4 | +0.3 |
| BH to the middle · return | +1.3±2.7 | +0.5 | +0.7 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | +1.1±3.9 | +2.6 | −1.6 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their forehand · rally | −3.1±5.4 | +0.7 | −3.8 |
| BH to their backhand · serve +1 | −2.1±4.5 | −0.1 | −2.0 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | −1.6±2.6 | +0.9 | −2.5 |
| BH to their backhand · return | −1.6±3.4 | −1.7 | ±0.0 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | −1.4±4.8 | +0.3 | −1.8 |
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to the middle · rally | +4.9±2.4 | +2.2 | +2.7 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +3.9±3.2 | +2.7 | +1.3 |
| FH to the middle · rally | +3.0±2.6 | +2.3 | +0.6 |
| BH to their backhand · serve +1 | +2.2±4.2 | +2.2 | ±0.0 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | +2.1±3.6 | +1.3 | +0.8 |
| BH to their backhand · return | +2.0±3.9 | +2.3 | −0.3 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their backhand · return | −3.3±4.8 | −2.7 | −0.6 |
| BH to their forehand · rally | −2.7±5.2 | −4.6 | +1.9 |
| BH to their backhand · return +1 | −2.0±4.2 | −1.1 | −0.9 |
| BH slice to the middle · rally | −1.8±3.1 | +1.3 | −3.1 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | −1.6±5.1 | +1.0 | −2.6 |
Against Camilo Ugo Carabelli-like opponents
| Jesper De Jong v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 63.5% | 37.3% |
| Players most similar to Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 1 | 51.9% | 42.6% |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli (charted head-to-head) | 2 | 61.7% | 37.6% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Alex De Minaur, Botic Van De Zandschulp, Miomir Kecmanovic, Taro Daniel, Emil Ruusuvuori, Juan Martin Del Potro, David Ferrer, Guillermo Canas. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.