Game plan

Kamil Majchrzak v Nicolas Jarry

Every number combines what Kamil Majchrzak does well with what Nicolas Jarry allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Kamil Majchrzak wins, best of 3 61%90%: 29%–87% · best of 5: 64%

Serve points won 64.5% / 62.2% Kamil / Nicolas · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 63%serve 64.6% / 62.0%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Kamil Majchrzak's record against Nicolas Jarry's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −1.5 on serve, −2.7 on return vs expectation (228 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Kamil	Nicolas
Direction choice	−0.01 ±0.14 better than 55%	−0.23 ±0.09 better than 9%
Shot selection	−0.06 ±0.20 better than 45%	+0.02 ±0.14 better than 54%
Execution	+0.49 ±0.78 better than 84%	−0.45 ±0.54 better than 46%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Kamil Majchrzak serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Kamil wins	v Nicolas	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	68%	76%	70.9%±7.5	56% ▲
Body	12%	63%	67%	67.1%±11.7	0% ▼
T	45%	74%	73%	71.9%±8.1	44%

Optimal v Nicolas Jarry: +0.5±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Kamil wins	v Nicolas	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	61%	79%	76%	81.3%±6.3	74% ▲
Body	5%	65%	68%	69.5%±13.3	0% ▼
T	34%	63%	76%	67.9%±8.9	26% ▼

Optimal v Nicolas Jarry: +0.5±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Nicolas Jarry serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Nicolas wins	v Kamil	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	74%	74%	74.7%±6.9	56% ▲
Body	6%	64%	65%	65.6%±14.2	0% ▼
T	51%	74%	79%	78.3%±7.2	44% ▼

Optimal v Kamil Majchrzak: +0.5±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Nicolas wins	v Kamil	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	75%	71%	72.7%±7.8	49% ▼
Body	8%	67%	58%	62.3%±14.0	0% ▼
T	38%	75%	73%	75.3%±7.4	51% ▲

Optimal v Kamil Majchrzak: +0.7±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Kamil Majchrzak returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nicolas	Value
FH through the middle	35%	+4.3	+0.6	+2.6	+7.5±2.7
FH slice through the middle	23%	−4.2	+1.0	+1.5	−1.7±2.1
FH down the line	18%	+1.7	−3.9	−1.6	−3.8±4.4
FH crosscourt	11%	+5.5	−0.5	−0.7	+4.3±4.0
FH slice down the line	10%	−4.3	−1.0	+1.6	−3.6±2.9

Lean FH through the middle: +6.0±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (133 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nicolas	Value
BH crosscourt	38%	+8.8	+1.0	+1.5	+11.2±3.2
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	+0.6	+3.5	+10.4±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	9%	+0.5	−1.4	−0.4	−1.3±2.6
BH slice through the middle	8%	−4.2	+0.2	+1.2	−2.9±1.8
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	+0.1	+6.3	+10.7±3.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.6±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (76 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nicolas	Value
FH through the middle	58%	−3.5	+2.5	+0.1	−0.9±2.6
FH crosscourt	25%	−0.2	−0.7	−0.8	−1.7±4.0
FH down the line	17%	−1.8	+0.1	+3.7	+2.1±4.2

Lean FH through the middle: −0.3±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (59 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nicolas	Value
BH crosscourt	42%	+1.0	+2.0	−0.2	+2.9±2.8
BH through the middle	40%	−2.9	+0.6	+2.0	−0.3±2.0
BH down the line	19%	−0.2	+2.1	+4.2	+6.1±4.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +0.7±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (48 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Nicolas Jarry returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kamil	Value
FH through the middle	61%	+4.3	+3.0	+1.1	+8.3±2.6
FH crosscourt	20%	+5.5	+3.0	+1.0	+9.5±4.1
FH down the line	13%	+1.7	+0.2	+2.0	+3.8±3.9
FH slice through the middle	5%	−4.2	−0.3	+1.0	−3.5±2.2
BH through the middle	1%	+6.6	+0.6	+2.9	+10.0±2.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.2±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (680 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kamil	Value
BH through the middle	51%	+6.4	+2.5	+2.9	+11.8±2.4
BH crosscourt	28%	+8.8	+0.9	+0.3	+9.9±3.2
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−0.9	−1.2	−6.3±2.5
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	+6.5	−2.7	+8.1±4.4
BH slice crosscourt	3%	+0.5	+0.3	−0.4	+0.5±2.6

Lean BH through the middle: +3.1±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (773 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kamil	Value
FH through the middle	65%	−3.5	−0.7	+1.1	−3.0±2.8
FH crosscourt	23%	−0.2	+2.1	−3.1	−1.3±4.2
FH down the line	12%	−1.8	−3.0	±0.0	−4.8±4.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.5±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (149 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kamil	Value
BH through the middle	57%	−2.9	−2.0	+1.1	−3.8±2.2
BH crosscourt	30%	+1.0	+0.7	−1.9	−0.2±3.0
BH down the line	5%	−0.2	+0.1	+0.1	±0.0±4.6
FH through the middle	5%	−2.9	+0.1	+1.1	−1.7±2.4
FH inside-in	2%	+0.6	+0.5	−3.1	−2.0±3.9

Lean BH down the line: +2.3±4.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (617 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Kamil Majchrzak

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	+2.0±3.2	+1.1	+0.8
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+1.5±4.0	+1.9	−0.4
BH to their backhand · rally	+1.3±3.0	+1.6	−0.3
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+1.3±4.4	−0.6	+1.9
BH to their forehand · rally	+1.0±5.6	+2.0	−1.0
BH to their backhand · return	+0.9±3.9	+0.1	+0.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return +1	−4.5±4.1	−4.1	−0.4
BH to the middle · return	−2.3±2.9	−4.5	+2.2
FH to the middle · rally	−2.1±3.0	−0.3	−1.9
FH to the middle · serve +1	−1.5±3.2	+0.8	−2.3
BH to the middle · rally	−0.9±2.7	+1.3	−2.2

Nicolas Jarry

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	+4.3±3.1	+2.3	+2.0
BH to the middle · return	−0.2±2.8	−0.4	+0.2
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−1.7±4.2	+0.1	−1.8
BH to their backhand · return	−5.2±3.7	−0.9	−4.3
FH to their backhand · rally	−5.3±4.0	−3.8	−1.5
FH to their forehand · rally	−5.7±4.2	−3.4	−2.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · rally	−7.4±2.7	−3.1	−4.3
FH to the middle · rally	−7.2±3.0	−6.6	−0.6
BH to their backhand · rally	−7.0±3.2	−5.8	−1.2
FH to their forehand · rally	−5.7±4.2	−3.4	−2.3
FH to their backhand · rally	−5.3±4.0	−3.8	−1.5

Against Nicolas Jarry-like opponents

Kamil Majchrzak v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	65.6%	38.6%
Players most similar to Nicolas Jarry	1	68.1%	36.3%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Jiri Lehecka, Arthur Rinderknech, Denis Shapovalov, Zizou Bergs, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Reilly Opelka, Gabriel Diallo, Aslan Karatsev, Vasek Pospisil, Sam Querrey. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.