Game plan

Lleyton Hewitt v Lorenzo Sonego

Every number combines what Lleyton Hewitt does well with what Lorenzo Sonego allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Lleyton Hewitt wins, best of 3 89%90%: 73%–97% · best of 5: 94%

Serve points won 67.5% / 57.7% Lleyton / Lorenzo · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 89%serve 67.5% / 57.7%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Lleyton Hewitt's record against Lorenzo Sonego's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Lleyton	Lorenzo
Direction choice	+0.49 ±0.04 better than 100%	−0.13 ±0.09 better than 22%
Shot selection	−0.09 ±0.09 better than 41%	+0.12 ±0.22 better than 67%
Execution	+0.77 ±0.16 better than 91%	−0.79 ±0.46 better than 33%
Points left on the table	1.79 ±0.06 lower than 100%	2.89 ±0.14 lower than 25%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Lleyton Hewitt serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Lleyton wins	v Lorenzo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	73%	74%	73.9%±3.4	40% ▼
Body	3%	68%	69%	73.8%±7.5	0% ▼
T	47%	80%	77%	81.9%±2.9	60% ▲

Optimal v Lorenzo Sonego: +0.4±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Lleyton wins	v Lorenzo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	74%	75%	75.9%±3.4	42% ▼
Body	4%	60%	70%	67.2%±8.5	0% ▼
T	45%	70%	78%	77.1%±3.7	58% ▲

Optimal v Lorenzo Sonego: +0.7±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +1.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Lorenzo Sonego serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Lorenzo wins	v Lleyton	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	56%	67%	69%	62.9%±3.5	55%
Body	12%	63%	56%	55.6%±7.6	0% ▼
T	32%	75%	75%	75.0%±3.8	45% ▲

Optimal v Lleyton Hewitt: +1.1±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +9.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Lorenzo wins	v Lleyton	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	75%	68%	70.2%±3.8	59% ▲
Body	15%	67%	63%	67.1%±7.1	2% ▼
T	39%	73%	70%	71.9%±3.9	39%

Optimal v Lleyton Hewitt: +0.2±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Lleyton Hewitt returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lorenzo	Value
FH through the middle	31%	+4.3	+1.5	±0.0	+5.8±1.6
FH crosscourt	25%	+5.5	+1.0	+3.6	+10.1±3.1
FH down the line	18%	+1.7	+4.1	+0.4	+6.2±3.1
FH slice through the middle	12%	−4.2	+1.4	−1.5	−4.3±1.9
FH slice crosscourt	9%	−4.3	+1.3	−1.1	−4.2±2.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.5±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (2677 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lorenzo	Value
BH crosscourt	35%	+8.8	+2.5	+0.2	+11.5±2.3
BH through the middle	30%	+6.4	+2.1	+0.7	+9.1±1.7
BH slice through the middle	13%	−4.2	−0.1	+0.1	−4.2±2.0
BH down the line	9%	+4.2	+4.5	+3.9	+12.6±4.0
BH slice crosscourt	8%	+0.5	−2.1	−2.3	−3.9±2.7

Lean BH down the line: +5.9±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (2761 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lorenzo	Value
FH through the middle	34%	−3.5	+1.8	−0.1	−1.7±2.1
FH crosscourt	34%	−0.2	−0.2	−0.3	−0.7±3.7
FH down the line	28%	−1.8	+0.9	−1.5	−2.4±3.9
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	±0.0	−0.3	−12.9±1.8
BH inside-in	1%	+2.5	+0.6	+0.2	+3.3±2.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.1±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (872 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lorenzo	Value
BH crosscourt	51%	+1.0	+1.4	+0.2	+2.6±2.0
BH through the middle	25%	−2.9	+1.9	+0.8	−0.2±1.6
BH down the line	10%	−0.2	−0.8	+0.6	−0.5±4.4
FH inside-out	6%	+1.0	+1.0	−1.5	+0.4±3.3
FH inside-in	4%	+0.6	+4.2	−0.3	+4.4±4.2

Lean FH inside-in: +3.2±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (2503 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Lorenzo Sonego returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lleyton	Value
FH through the middle	33%	+4.3	+1.6	+1.2	+7.1±1.9
FH slice through the middle	23%	−4.2	+0.7	+4.7	+1.1±1.8
FH down the line	19%	+1.7	+1.7	−0.8	+2.6±3.3
FH crosscourt	12%	+5.5	±0.0	−1.4	+4.1±3.4
FH slice down the line	9%	−4.3	−1.4	+3.5	−2.2±3.1

Lean FH through the middle: +3.8±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (725 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lleyton	Value
BH through the middle	41%	+6.4	+0.2	−1.1	+5.5±1.8
BH crosscourt	23%	+8.8	±0.0	−0.7	+8.1±2.6
BH slice through the middle	15%	−4.2	−0.4	+3.4	−1.2±1.8
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	−4.5	−0.7	−1.0±4.1
BH slice down the line	5%	−8.4	−1.1	+2.9	−6.5±3.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.4±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (873 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lleyton	Value
FH through the middle	48%	−3.5	−1.2	+2.0	−2.6±2.3
FH down the line	24%	−1.8	+2.8	+2.2	+3.2±3.8
FH crosscourt	20%	−0.2	−0.2	+1.4	+1.0±3.4
FH slice through the middle	4%	−12.7	+0.5	+2.8	−9.4±2.0
FH slice down the line	4%	−9.4	−0.2	−0.5	−10.2±2.5

Lean FH down the line: +4.3±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (139 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lleyton	Value
BH through the middle	43%	−2.9	−1.1	+1.2	−2.7±1.5
BH crosscourt	34%	+1.0	−1.2	+0.2	+0.1±2.0
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	−0.5	+1.2	+0.4±4.1
FH through the middle	7%	−2.9	+1.0	+2.0	+0.2±1.9
FH inside-out	3%	+1.0	−0.7	+2.2	+2.5±2.9

Lean FH inside-out: +3.5±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (708 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Lleyton Hewitt

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return	+7.5±5.2	+3.4	+4.0
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+6.1±3.2	+3.0	+3.1
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+4.6±7.0	+3.0	+1.6
FH to their forehand · return	+4.6±4.8	+2.1	+2.4
BH to their forehand · return +1	+3.7±6.0	+1.9	+1.8
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.2±2.8	+2.2	+1.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−8.1±5.7	−4.0	−4.1
FH volley to their forehand · rally	−6.3±7.6	+0.3	−6.6
FH to their forehand · return +1	−4.1±4.7	−3.2	−0.9
BH to their backhand · rally	−3.9±2.2	−0.4	−3.4
BH slice to the middle · return +1	−3.1±3.0	−0.5	−2.5

Lorenzo Sonego

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH slice to their forehand · rally	+5.8±5.5	+4.6	+1.2
FH slice to the middle · return	+5.5±2.7	+2.2	+3.3
FH volley to their forehand · rally	+5.4±7.3	+2.6	+2.8
BH slice to their forehand · return +1	+4.4±4.1	+1.1	+3.3
FH to their forehand · return +1	+4.2±4.5	+0.8	+3.4
BH volley to their backhand · rally	+4.0±5.9	+2.6	+1.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their backhand · rally	−8.4±7.2	−3.7	−4.7
BH volley to their forehand · rally	−5.8±7.6	−3.2	−2.6
FH to their forehand · rally	−5.7±2.9	−6.7	+1.0
BH to their forehand · rally	−4.2±4.4	−4.3	+0.1
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−3.6±3.8	−3.6	+0.1

Against Lorenzo Sonego-like opponents

Lleyton Hewitt v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	63.8%	38.1%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Casper Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Arthur Fils, Ben Shelton, Carlos Alcaraz, Tallon Griekspoor, Alejandro Tabilo, Felix Auger Aliassime, Zizou Bergs, Holger Rune. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.