Game plan
Lucas Pouille v Aleksandar Kovacevic
Every number combines what Lucas Pouille does well with what Aleksandar Kovacevic allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Lucas Pouille's record against Aleksandar Kovacevic's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −4.7 on serve, −7.8 on return vs expectation (231 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Lucas | Aleksandar |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | −0.02 ±0.08 better than 52% | −0.12 ±0.10 better than 26% |
| Shot selection | +0.05 ±0.16 better than 60% | −0.31 ±0.25 better than 22% |
| Execution | −0.99 ±0.48 better than 26% | −0.76 ±0.71 better than 34% |
| Points left on the table | 2.56 ±0.14 lower than 54% | 2.66 ±0.17 lower than 43% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Lucas Pouille serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Lucas wins | v Aleksandar | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 44% | 71% | 77% | 75.4%±6.8 | 57% ▲ |
| Body | 10% | 65% | 63% | 65.3%±11.7 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 46% | 74% | 80% | 79.6%±6.3 | 43% ▼ |
Optimal v Aleksandar Kovacevic: +0.6±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Lucas wins | v Aleksandar | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 46% | 74% | 73% | 74.2%±7.4 | 40% ▼ |
| Body | 7% | 61% | 64% | 61.7%±13.3 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 47% | 74% | 74% | 76.2%±6.6 | 60% ▲ |
Optimal v Aleksandar Kovacevic: +0.6±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Aleksandar Kovacevic serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Aleksandar wins | v Lucas | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 43% | 74% | 77% | 77.9%±6.1 | 36% ▼ |
| Body | 5% | 67% | 68% | 71.4%±12.6 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 51% | 79% | 78% | 81.5%±5.4 | 64% ▲ |
Optimal v Lucas Pouille: +0.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Aleksandar wins | v Lucas | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 44% | 77% | 76% | 80.0%±6.1 | 57% ▲ |
| Body | 5% | 66% | 63% | 66.0%±14.4 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 51% | 75% | 78% | 80.9%±5.7 | 43% ▼ |
Optimal v Lucas Pouille: +0.5±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Lucas Pouille returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Aleksandar | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 35% | +4.3 | +1.4 | −1.5 | +4.2±2.8 |
| FH down the line | 21% | +1.7 | −1.1 | −3.5 | −2.9±4.4 |
| FH slice through the middle | 18% | −4.2 | +1.2 | −1.1 | −4.2±2.3 |
| FH crosscourt | 14% | +5.5 | −0.4 | −3.8 | +1.2±4.3 |
| FH slice down the line | 7% | −4.3 | +1.1 | +0.5 | −2.7±2.7 |
Lean FH through the middle: +4.3±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (462 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Aleksandar | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 48% | +6.4 | −3.4 | −1.0 | +2.0±2.5 |
| BH crosscourt | 19% | +8.8 | −1.3 | −1.0 | +6.6±3.4 |
| BH down the line | 16% | +4.2 | +0.6 | −3.3 | +1.6±4.3 |
| BH slice through the middle | 9% | −4.2 | −0.4 | −1.0 | −5.6±2.4 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 4% | +0.5 | +2.2 | −2.3 | +0.4±2.9 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +5.0±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (619 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Aleksandar | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 56% | −3.5 | −0.8 | +1.5 | −2.8±2.9 |
| FH down the line | 23% | −1.8 | −2.6 | +1.2 | −3.2±4.5 |
| FH crosscourt | 21% | −0.2 | −0.2 | −4.0 | −4.4±4.1 |
Lean FH through the middle: +0.4±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (95 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Aleksandar | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 46% | −2.9 | −1.1 | +0.6 | −3.5±2.3 |
| BH crosscourt | 27% | +1.0 | −2.5 | −1.3 | −2.8±3.2 |
| BH down the line | 18% | −0.2 | +2.0 | +2.5 | +4.3±4.6 |
| FH through the middle | 3% | −2.9 | −0.6 | +1.5 | −2.0±2.2 |
| FH inside-out | 3% | +1.0 | +0.9 | +1.2 | +3.0±3.3 |
Lean BH down the line: +5.9±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (387 returns charted)
Aleksandar Kovacevic returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Lucas | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 51% | +4.3 | −2.1 | −0.3 | +1.9±2.7 |
| FH down the line | 20% | +1.7 | +2.6 | +3.1 | +7.4±4.3 |
| FH crosscourt | 18% | +5.5 | −0.7 | −0.9 | +3.9±4.3 |
| FH slice through the middle | 8% | −4.2 | −0.7 | −0.1 | −5.0±2.1 |
| FH slice down the line | 3% | −4.3 | −2.3 | −1.9 | −8.5±2.5 |
Lean FH down the line: +4.9±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (164 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Lucas | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice through the middle | 34% | −4.2 | −1.9 | +0.5 | −5.6±2.5 |
| BH through the middle | 19% | +6.4 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +7.3±2.5 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 16% | +0.5 | −0.3 | +0.6 | +0.8±3.0 |
| BH crosscourt | 13% | +8.8 | +1.5 | −1.1 | +9.2±3.3 |
| BH slice down the line | 13% | −8.4 | +1.1 | +2.0 | −5.3±3.2 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +8.8±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (167 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Lucas | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 27% | −2.9 | −0.6 | +0.9 | −2.7±2.3 |
| FH through the middle | 27% | −2.9 | −0.4 | −1.5 | −4.8±2.2 |
| BH crosscourt | 14% | +1.0 | +0.3 | +1.5 | +2.9±2.8 |
| FH inside-out | 13% | +1.0 | +0.2 | −0.2 | +1.0±3.3 |
| BH down the line | 11% | −0.2 | −4.1 | +3.7 | −0.6±4.5 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +4.6±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (132 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.
Lucas Pouille
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their backhand · rally | +2.5±2.6 | +0.9 | +1.6 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +1.3±2.7 | ±0.0 | +1.3 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | ±0.0±3.4 | +0.1 | −0.1 |
| FH to their forehand · return +1 | −0.2±4.1 | −3.6 | +3.4 |
| FH to the middle · rally | −0.8±2.2 | −0.6 | −0.3 |
| FH to the middle · return | −0.9±2.3 | −0.4 | −0.6 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their backhand · return +1 | −5.1±3.3 | −1.7 | −3.4 |
| BH to the middle · return | −3.8±2.0 | −2.7 | −1.2 |
| BH to their backhand · return | −2.6±2.9 | −0.6 | −2.0 |
| BH to their forehand · rally | −2.5±4.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| FH to the middle · serve +1 | −2.5±2.6 | −0.9 | −1.5 |
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | +2.9±3.5 | +0.6 | +2.3 |
| FH to their backhand · return | +2.6±3.7 | +1.4 | +1.3 |
| BH to their backhand · return +1 | +1.8±3.3 | +1.9 | −0.1 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | +1.5±3.0 | +0.2 | +1.3 |
| BH slice to the middle · rally | +0.5±2.3 | +0.5 | −0.1 |
| FH to the middle · serve +1 | +0.2±2.5 | +0.2 | ±0.0 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their backhand · rally | −3.4±2.3 | −1.6 | −1.8 |
| BH to their backhand · serve +1 | −3.2±3.3 | −4.9 | +1.7 |
| FH to the middle · return | −2.9±2.2 | −1.5 | −1.4 |
| FH to their forehand · return +1 | −2.7±4.0 | −2.1 | −0.6 |
| FH to their forehand · return | −2.6±4.4 | −1.0 | −1.7 |
Against Aleksandar Kovacevic-like opponents
| Lucas Pouille v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 62.2% | 32.4% |
| Players most similar to Aleksandar Kovacevic | 2 | 58.9% | 23.1% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Botic Van De Zandschulp, Zhizhen Zhang, Ethan Quinn, Felix Auger Aliassime, Zizou Bergs, Mackenzie Mcdonald, Tim Van Rijthoven, Vasek Pospisil. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.