Game plan

Mark Philippoussis v Pete Sampras

Every number combines what Mark Philippoussis does well with what Pete Sampras allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Mark Philippoussis wins, best of 3 22%90%: 14%–32% · best of 5: 17%

Serve points won 67.7% / 74.3% Mark / Pete · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 26%serve 67.9% / 73.3%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Mark Philippoussis's record against Pete Sampras's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (head-to-head: −1.1 on serve, −6.0 on return vs expectation (614 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Mark	Pete
Direction choice	+0.07 ±0.14 better than 74%	+0.37 ±0.04 better than 99%
Shot selection	+0.32 ±0.21 better than 82%	+0.63 ±0.06 better than 96%
Execution	−1.40 ±0.61 better than 12%	−0.32 ±0.18 better than 52%
Points left on the table	3.53 ±0.34 lower than 8%	3.11 ±0.10 lower than 15%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Mark Philippoussis serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Mark wins	v Pete	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	81%	76%	83.6%±3.2	59% ▲
Body	7%	66%	65%	67.2%±8.2	0% ▼
T	47%	80%	73%	78.0%±4.1	41% ▼

Optimal v Pete Sampras: +0.8±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Mark wins	v Pete	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	79%	72%	78.0%±3.9	41% ▼
Body	4%	63%	65%	64.7%±10.1	0% ▼
T	46%	79%	74%	81.0%±3.7	59% ▲

Optimal v Pete Sampras: +0.2±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Pete Sampras serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Pete wins	v Mark	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	80%	79%	84.6%±3.1	35% ▼
Body	6%	67%	65%	68.6%±7.8	0% ▼
T	52%	85%	83%	90.2%±2.2	65% ▲

Optimal v Mark Philippoussis: +0.7±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +3.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Pete wins	v Mark	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	80%	78%	84.0%±3.0	35% ▼
Body	6%	71%	64%	71.6%±8.7	0% ▼
T	52%	79%	77%	83.2%±3.4	65% ▲

Optimal v Mark Philippoussis: +0.4±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Mark Philippoussis returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pete	Value
FH through the middle	51%	+4.3	−2.7	−3.1	−1.6±1.9
FH down the line	30%	+1.7	−4.1	−0.2	−2.6±3.2
FH crosscourt	17%	+5.5	−5.3	−2.1	−1.9±3.4
FH slice through the middle	3%	−4.2	+0.8	−1.8	−5.3±2.1

Lean FH through the middle: +0.5±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (386 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pete	Value
BH slice through the middle	32%	−4.2	±0.0	−3.3	−7.5±1.7
BH through the middle	21%	+6.4	−3.4	−5.0	−1.9±2.0
BH slice crosscourt	21%	+0.5	+1.5	−3.7	−1.6±2.4
BH crosscourt	10%	+8.8	−3.2	−1.1	+4.5±2.8
BH down the line	9%	+4.2	−4.8	−6.0	−6.7±3.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +8.2±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (480 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pete	Value
FH through the middle	39%	−3.5	−1.3	−1.4	−6.1±2.2
FH down the line	30%	−1.8	−2.1	−0.9	−4.8±3.6
FH crosscourt	25%	−0.2	±0.0	−0.7	−0.9±3.5
BH through the middle	6%	+0.1	−0.9	−2.1	−2.9±1.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.3±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (129 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pete	Value
BH slice crosscourt	28%	−4.0	+3.0	+1.0	−0.1±2.0
BH through the middle	22%	−2.9	+0.6	−2.1	−4.4±1.9
BH crosscourt	17%	+1.0	+0.2	+1.1	+2.4±2.5
BH slice through the middle	15%	−11.3	+0.7	−0.2	−10.9±2.1
BH slice down the line	7%	−9.3	+0.9	+2.3	−6.1±4.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.5±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (405 returns charted)

Pete Sampras returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mark	Value
FH through the middle	41%	+4.3	−2.4	−0.8	+1.1±1.9
FH crosscourt	34%	+5.5	−1.8	−1.9	+1.8±3.3
FH down the line	15%	+1.7	+1.8	−2.0	+1.5±3.5
FH slice through the middle	4%	−4.2	+2.1	+0.1	−2.0±2.0
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.3	+4.9	±0.0	+0.5±2.0
BH inside-out	0%	+6.3	+3.5	−3.2	+6.7±3.9

Lean BH inside-out: +5.4±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (3531 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mark	Value
BH slice through the middle	29%	−4.2	+2.3	−0.5	−2.4±1.8
BH slice crosscourt	25%	+0.5	+4.0	−1.0	+3.5±2.3
BH through the middle	18%	+6.4	−1.8	−3.7	+1.0±2.0
BH crosscourt	13%	+8.8	+0.5	−1.7	+7.6±2.8
BH slice down the line	8%	−8.4	+4.6	−1.2	−5.0±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.6±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (5404 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mark	Value
FH crosscourt	37%	−0.2	+2.3	+1.0	+3.1±3.7
FH through the middle	30%	−3.5	−1.8	−1.4	−6.6±2.4
FH down the line	17%	−1.8	+0.3	−4.1	−5.6±4.3
BH through the middle	4%	+0.1	+0.3	−1.5	−1.2±2.0
BH slice through the middle	3%	−6.9	−1.9	+0.2	−8.6±2.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.6±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (1157 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mark	Value
BH through the middle	26%	−2.9	−0.3	−1.5	−4.7±1.7
BH crosscourt	24%	+1.0	−0.1	−0.8	±0.0±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	20%	−4.0	+1.5	+1.5	−1.1±2.0
BH down the line	10%	−0.2	−0.5	+0.5	−0.2±4.2
BH slice through the middle	8%	−11.3	+2.6	+0.2	−8.5±2.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.7±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (4084 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.