Game plan

Mattia Bellucci v Yoshihito Nishioka

Every number combines what Mattia Bellucci does well with what Yoshihito Nishioka allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Mattia Bellucci wins, best of 3 72%90%: 31%–95% · best of 5: 77%

Serve points won 63.0% / 58.5% Mattia / Yoshihito · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 72%serve 63.0% / 58.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Mattia Bellucci's record against Yoshihito Nishioka's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Mattia	Yoshihito
Direction choice	−0.19 ±0.10 better than 15%	−0.29 ±0.10 better than 6%
Shot selection	−0.43 ±0.21 better than 15%	−0.18 ±0.14 better than 32%
Execution	−0.76 ±0.76 better than 34%	+0.62 ±0.43 better than 87%
Points left on the table	3.20 ±0.21 lower than 12%	3.00 ±0.19 lower than 19%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Mattia Bellucci serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Mattia wins	v Yoshihito	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	35%	76%	79%	81.7%±6.1	48% ▲
Body	11%	64%	55%	55.9%±13.4	0% ▼
T	55%	72%	80%	76.9%±6.1	52% ▼

Optimal v Yoshihito Nishioka: +1.2±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +5.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Mattia wins	v Yoshihito	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	61%	69%	78%	75.0%±6.5	58% ▼
Body	10%	68%	62%	67.6%±13.0	0% ▼
T	29%	74%	77%	78.1%±7.2	42% ▲

Optimal v Yoshihito Nishioka: +0.7±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Yoshihito Nishioka serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Yoshihito wins	v Mattia	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	25%	62%	74%	64.0%±9.2	38% ▲
Body	22%	57%	64%	57.3%±12.3	9% ▼
T	53%	61%	81%	68.8%±9.2	53%

Optimal v Mattia Bellucci: +0.5±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Yoshihito wins	v Mattia	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	63%	75%	65.4%±8.8	55%
Body	16%	60%	60%	57.0%±13.6	3% ▼
T	29%	75%	76%	78.6%±7.1	42% ▲

Optimal v Mattia Bellucci: +0.7±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +10.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Mattia Bellucci returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yoshihito	Value
FH slice through the middle	41%	−4.2	−1.7	+1.2	−4.7±2.4
FH through the middle	23%	+4.3	−2.1	+3.3	+5.5±2.6
FH crosscourt	14%	+5.5	+1.1	−2.0	+4.6±4.1
FH slice crosscourt	12%	−4.3	+1.6	+1.3	−1.4±2.2
FH down the line	9%	+1.7	−1.4	+2.1	+2.3±3.8

Lean FH through the middle: +5.4±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (107 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yoshihito	Value
BH through the middle	41%	+6.4	−3.6	+4.2	+7.0±2.3
BH slice through the middle	18%	−4.2	−1.0	+0.9	−4.3±2.4
BH crosscourt	17%	+8.8	−1.0	+0.8	+8.6±3.3
BH down the line	17%	+4.2	−0.8	+5.0	+8.5±4.1
BH slice down the line	7%	−8.4	+1.2	+3.2	−4.0±3.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.8±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (161 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yoshihito	Value
FH through the middle	33%	−3.5	+0.5	+2.8	−0.2±2.5
FH slice through the middle	25%	−12.7	−1.2	−0.1	−14.0±1.8
FH crosscourt	22%	−0.2	±0.0	−4.7	−4.9±4.0
FH down the line	13%	−1.8	−1.6	+5.0	+1.6±3.8
FH slice crosscourt	8%	−12.5	+0.9	±0.0	−11.6±1.3

Lean FH through the middle: +5.2±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (64 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yoshihito	Value
BH through the middle	60%	−2.9	+0.3	+0.2	−2.4±2.3
BH crosscourt	22%	+1.0	+0.2	+4.3	+5.6±3.1
BH down the line	14%	−0.2	−1.3	+0.8	−0.8±4.0
FH through the middle	5%	−2.9	+0.7	+2.8	+0.6±1.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.9±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (110 returns charted)

Yoshihito Nishioka returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mattia	Value
FH through the middle	40%	+4.3	+3.3	−0.2	+7.4±2.9
FH crosscourt	23%	+5.5	+0.7	−0.3	+5.9±4.0
FH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	+2.3	−2.9	−4.7±2.3
FH down the line	9%	+1.7	−0.1	+3.0	+4.7±4.5
FH slice crosscourt	7%	−4.3	+3.3	−0.2	−1.2±2.3

Lean FH through the middle: +3.6±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (435 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mattia	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	+0.5	+0.8	+7.6±2.4
BH crosscourt	22%	+8.8	±0.0	−3.1	+5.7±3.4
BH slice through the middle	21%	−4.2	−0.6	−0.5	−5.2±2.4
BH slice down the line	7%	−8.4	+1.7	+1.3	−5.3±3.1
BH down the line	6%	+4.2	−4.8	+0.7	+0.1±4.6

Lean BH through the middle: +5.0±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (612 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mattia	Value
FH through the middle	49%	−3.5	+1.5	−0.4	−2.3±2.8
FH crosscourt	38%	−0.2	+0.3	−0.2	−0.2±4.1
FH down the line	9%	−1.8	−1.0	+1.0	−1.8±4.5
FH slice through the middle	4%	−12.7	+0.5	±0.0	−12.2±1.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.7±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (261 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mattia	Value
BH through the middle	53%	−2.9	+2.9	+0.2	+0.2±2.4
BH crosscourt	29%	+1.0	+2.5	−1.1	+2.4±3.1
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	+0.7	±0.0	+0.6±4.9
BH slice through the middle	4%	−11.3	−0.5	±0.0	−11.8±1.4
FH through the middle	3%	−2.9	+1.8	−0.4	−1.5±2.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.2±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (286 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Mattia Bellucci

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+4.6±5.5	+0.9	+3.7
BH to the middle · rally	+2.4±2.7	+1.0	+1.3
BH to their forehand · return	+2.2±5.6	+1.0	+1.2
FH to the middle · return	+1.3±3.1	−1.6	+2.9
BH to their forehand · rally	+0.5±3.9	−0.9	+1.4
FH to their backhand · return +1	+0.2±4.3	−0.4	+0.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	−2.2±3.2	−0.9	−1.4
BH to the middle · return	−1.4±3.0	−5.8	+4.5
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−0.9±4.4	+0.2	−1.1
BH to the middle · return +1	−0.7±2.8	+0.2	−0.9
FH to their backhand · rally	−0.7±3.9	−2.9	+2.3

Yoshihito Nishioka

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	+7.4±4.2	+5.1	+2.3
FH to their backhand · return	+5.3±4.4	+2.6	+2.7
BH to their forehand · return	+4.2±4.9	+3.6	+0.5
BH to the middle · rally	+2.6±2.5	+2.3	+0.3
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.4±3.5	+0.3	+2.0
FH to the middle · return	+0.9±3.1	+1.8	−0.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−6.5±4.5	−3.7	−2.8
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.0±3.8	−0.7	−2.3
FH to their backhand · return +1	−2.8±4.9	−0.7	−2.1
FH to the middle · rally	−1.8±2.6	+0.3	−2.2
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−1.2±5.1	+1.6	−2.7

Against Yoshihito Nishioka-like opponents

Mattia Bellucci v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	63.2%	34.4%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Cameron Norrie, Gael Monfils, Albert Ramos, Dominik Koepfer, Rafael Nadal, Federico Delbonis, Pablo Cuevas, Guido Pella, Gaston Gaudio. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.