Game plan

Pablo Carreno Busta v Roberto Bautista Agut

Every number combines what Pablo Carreno Busta does well with what Roberto Bautista Agut allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Pablo Carreno Busta wins, best of 3 43%90%: 21%–68% · best of 5: 42%

Serve points won 63.0% / 64.3% Pablo / Roberto · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 40%serve 62.8% / 64.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Pablo Carreno Busta's record against Roberto Bautista Agut's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +0.8 on serve, +3.1 on return vs expectation (740 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Pablo	Roberto
Direction choice	−0.01 ±0.09 better than 54%	+0.03 ±0.06 better than 65%
Shot selection	−0.04 ±0.12 better than 48%	+0.08 ±0.08 better than 62%
Execution	+0.75 ±0.44 better than 90%	+1.23 ±0.28 better than 98%
Points left on the table	2.31 ±0.13 lower than 82%	2.30 ±0.09 lower than 85%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Pablo Carreno Busta +1.75, Roberto Bautista Agut +2.09. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Pablo Carreno Busta serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Pablo wins	v Roberto	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	70%	74%	71.2%±3.8	61% ▲
Body	19%	65%	60%	61.9%±7.1	6% ▼
T	32%	68%	76%	69.1%±4.7	33%

Optimal v Roberto Bautista Agut: +0.7±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Pablo wins	v Roberto	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	71%	77%	74.9%±3.8	61% ▲
Body	14%	66%	53%	56.4%±8.7	0% ▼
T	38%	66%	72%	65.7%±4.6	39%

Optimal v Roberto Bautista Agut: +0.7±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +6.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Roberto Bautista Agut serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Roberto wins	v Pablo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	70%	77%	74.3%±3.7	47% ▲
Body	9%	64%	62%	62.6%±9.2	0% ▼
T	47%	72%	78%	76.1%±3.9	53% ▲

Optimal v Pablo Carreno Busta: +0.6±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Roberto wins	v Pablo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	56%	70%	75%	72.4%±4.0	51% ▼
Body	9%	61%	62%	59.8%±9.2	0% ▼
T	36%	72%	74%	74.5%±4.3	49% ▲

Optimal v Pablo Carreno Busta: +0.8±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Pablo Carreno Busta returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roberto	Value
FH through the middle	40%	+4.3	+1.3	+2.6	+8.2±1.9
FH slice through the middle	20%	−4.2	−0.3	+2.1	−2.4±2.1
FH crosscourt	18%	+5.5	+0.9	−1.2	+5.2±3.6
FH down the line	11%	+1.7	+2.0	+4.3	+8.1±3.9
FH slice down the line	5%	−4.3	+0.8	−0.1	−3.6±3.2

Lean FH through the middle: +3.8±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (638 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roberto	Value
BH through the middle	40%	+6.4	+1.6	+1.2	+9.2±1.8
BH crosscourt	25%	+8.8	−0.1	+2.2	+10.9±2.6
BH slice through the middle	18%	−4.2	−1.1	+3.1	−2.2±2.1
BH down the line	8%	+4.2	+3.0	+1.3	+8.5±4.3
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	−2.3	+1.1	−0.7±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.5±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (665 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roberto	Value
FH through the middle	51%	−3.5	+0.7	−0.4	−3.1±2.5
FH crosscourt	29%	−0.2	−1.4	−1.4	−3.0±4.2
FH down the line	19%	−1.8	−0.1	+1.5	−0.4±4.4

Lean FH down the line: +2.1±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (195 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roberto	Value
BH crosscourt	40%	+1.0	−1.7	+0.2	−0.5±2.3
BH through the middle	36%	−2.9	+0.2	+2.3	−0.3±1.8
BH down the line	12%	−0.2	+3.3	+2.5	+5.6±4.7
FH through the middle	7%	−2.9	−1.3	−0.4	−4.6±2.1
FH inside-out	3%	+1.0	−0.5	+1.5	+2.0±3.2

Lean BH down the line: +5.7±4.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (495 returns charted)

Roberto Bautista Agut returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pablo	Value
FH through the middle	47%	+4.3	+2.4	+1.7	+8.4±1.7
FH down the line	19%	+1.7	+2.4	+0.4	+4.5±3.6
FH crosscourt	15%	+5.5	+1.8	−1.9	+5.4±3.7
FH slice through the middle	13%	−4.2	+0.4	−0.3	−4.1±2.2
FH slice crosscourt	3%	−4.3	+0.3	+1.4	−2.7±2.8

Lean FH through the middle: +3.5±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (1224 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pablo	Value
BH through the middle	42%	+6.4	+2.7	−0.3	+8.8±1.7
BH crosscourt	20%	+8.8	+2.4	+1.6	+12.8±2.7
BH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	−0.1	+1.4	−2.9±2.1
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	+4.9	+2.4	+11.5±4.2
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	−1.2	±0.0	−0.7±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.2±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (1218 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pablo	Value
FH through the middle	48%	−3.5	+0.4	+0.7	−2.4±2.5
FH crosscourt	24%	−0.2	+0.7	+3.3	+3.8±4.3
FH down the line	24%	−1.8	+0.9	−0.1	−1.0±4.6
FH slice through the middle	4%	−12.7	±0.0	−0.4	−13.0±1.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.8±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (289 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pablo	Value
BH through the middle	48%	−2.9	+0.6	+0.6	−1.7±1.7
BH crosscourt	33%	+1.0	+1.7	+1.3	+4.0±2.4
BH down the line	12%	−0.2	+0.8	−1.4	−0.8±4.7
FH through the middle	3%	−2.9	−0.4	+0.7	−2.6±2.2
FH inside-out	2%	+1.0	±0.0	−0.1	+0.9±3.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.7±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (961 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Pablo Carreno Busta

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	+4.0±2.4	+1.6	+2.4
FH to their backhand · return	+3.9±3.0	±0.0	+3.9
FH to the middle · rally	+3.8±1.3	+1.5	+2.2
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.4±1.9	+0.6	+2.9
BH to the middle · return	+3.4±1.3	+1.0	+2.4
BH to their forehand · return	+3.2±3.5	+1.0	+2.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	−0.5±3.2	+0.3	−0.8
FH to their backhand · rally	−0.3±1.4	−0.7	+0.3
BH slice to the middle · rally	−0.2±1.9	−0.3	+0.1
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+0.1±4.0	−0.1	+0.2
FH slice to the middle · rally	+0.5±2.6	−0.1	+0.6

Roberto Bautista Agut

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return +1	+4.7±4.3	+0.5	+4.1
BH to their forehand · rally	+4.6±2.6	+2.0	+2.6
FH to their forehand · rally	+4.6±1.4	+2.9	+1.7
FH to the middle · return	+4.4±1.4	+2.2	+2.2
BH to their forehand · return	+4.1±3.5	+3.0	+1.1
BH to their backhand · return	+3.9±1.9	+1.9	+1.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−3.0±4.5	−1.4	−1.6
BH volley to their forehand · rally	−1.5±6.0	−1.9	+0.4
FH to their backhand · return +1	−1.4±2.7	−1.2	−0.2
FH slice to the middle · rally	−1.1±2.8	−1.3	+0.2
BH slice to the middle · rally	−0.9±1.8	+0.1	−1.0

Against Roberto Bautista Agut-like opponents

Pablo Carreno Busta v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	62.2%	34.8%
Players most similar to Roberto Bautista Agut	5	60.5%	36.0%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Casper Ruud, Brandon Nakashima, Gael Monfils, Mariano Navone, Novak Djokovic, Karen Khachanov, Francisco Cerundolo, Roberto Carballes Baena, Bernabe Zapata Miralles. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.