Game plan

Roberto Bautista Agut v Andy Murray

Every number combines what Roberto Bautista Agut does well with what Andy Murray allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Roberto Bautista Agut wins, best of 3 54%90%: 32%–75% · best of 5: 55%

Serve points won 64.3% / 63.5% Roberto / Andy · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 35%serve 61.3% / 64.4%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Roberto Bautista Agut's record against Andy Murray's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +3.8 on serve, +2.0 on return vs expectation (1577 points); head-to-head: +10.6 on serve, +1.3 on return vs expectation (664 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Roberto	Andy
Direction choice	+0.03 ±0.06 better than 65%	+0.14 ±0.03 better than 87%
Shot selection	+0.08 ±0.08 better than 62%	−0.45 ±0.05 better than 13%
Execution	+1.23 ±0.28 better than 98%	+0.94 ±0.16 better than 95%
Points left on the table	2.30 ±0.09 lower than 85%	2.23 ±0.05 lower than 90%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Roberto Bautista Agut +1.60, Andy Murray +2.01. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Roberto Bautista Agut serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Roberto wins	v Andy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	70%	70%	66.7%±2.8	40% ▼
Body	9%	64%	59%	59.5%±6.1	0% ▼
T	47%	72%	76%	73.0%±2.7	60% ▲

Optimal v Andy Murray: +0.6±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Roberto wins	v Andy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	56%	70%	71%	67.7%±2.9	51% ▼
Body	9%	61%	57%	54.8%±6.5	0% ▼
T	36%	72%	68%	68.0%±3.3	49% ▲

Optimal v Andy Murray: +0.8±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +1.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Andy Murray serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Andy wins	v Roberto	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	71%	74%	71.6%±2.7	58% ▲
Body	8%	67%	60%	63.9%±6.2	0% ▼
T	46%	80%	76%	80.4%±2.4	42% ▼

Optimal v Roberto Bautista Agut: +0.5±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +5.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Andy wins	v Roberto	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	77%	77%	80.2%±2.3	60% ▲
Body	8%	61%	53%	51.6%±7.4	0% ▼
T	45%	70%	72%	69.9%±3.1	40% ▼

Optimal v Roberto Bautista Agut: +0.7±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +6.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Roberto Bautista Agut returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andy	Value
FH through the middle	47%	+4.3	+2.4	+1.2	+7.9±1.3
FH down the line	19%	+1.7	+2.4	+0.2	+4.3±2.8
FH crosscourt	15%	+5.5	+1.8	+1.3	+8.5±2.9
FH slice through the middle	13%	−4.2	+0.4	+1.4	−2.4±1.7
FH slice crosscourt	3%	−4.3	+0.3	+2.2	−1.9±2.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.2±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1224 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andy	Value
BH through the middle	42%	+6.4	+2.7	−0.1	+9.0±1.4
BH crosscourt	20%	+8.8	+2.4	+0.9	+12.1±2.3
BH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	−0.1	−0.4	−4.7±1.6
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	+4.9	+0.1	+9.3±3.5
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	−1.2	+0.5	−0.1±2.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.2±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (1218 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andy	Value
FH through the middle	48%	−3.5	+0.4	+0.7	−2.4±2.0
FH crosscourt	24%	−0.2	+0.7	+1.5	+2.0±3.4
FH down the line	24%	−1.8	+0.9	+2.6	+1.7±3.7
FH slice through the middle	4%	−12.7	±0.0	−0.4	−13.0±2.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.8±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (289 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andy	Value
BH through the middle	48%	−2.9	+0.6	+1.1	−1.1±1.2
BH crosscourt	33%	+1.0	+1.7	+1.8	+4.5±1.8
BH down the line	12%	−0.2	+0.8	+1.3	+1.9±3.6
FH through the middle	3%	−2.9	−0.4	+0.7	−2.5±1.8
FH inside-out	2%	+1.0	±0.0	+2.6	+3.5±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.4±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (961 returns charted)

Andy Murray returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roberto	Value
FH through the middle	42%	+4.3	+1.4	+2.6	+8.2±1.2
FH down the line	17%	+1.7	+6.2	+4.3	+12.2±2.7
FH crosscourt	16%	+5.5	+1.9	−1.2	+6.2±2.6
FH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	+2.7	+2.1	+0.5±1.6
FH slice down the line	5%	−4.3	+3.1	−0.1	−1.3±2.8

Lean FH down the line: +5.5±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (5314 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roberto	Value
BH crosscourt	27%	+8.8	+4.6	+2.2	+15.6±1.8
BH through the middle	25%	+6.4	+2.2	+1.2	+9.9±1.2
BH slice through the middle	25%	−4.2	+2.7	+3.1	+1.6±1.5
BH slice crosscourt	15%	+0.5	+2.4	+1.1	+4.0±2.2
BH slice down the line	4%	−8.4	+0.9	−1.3	−8.7±3.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +8.0±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (4642 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roberto	Value
FH through the middle	43%	−3.5	+1.6	−0.4	−2.3±1.9
FH down the line	28%	−1.8	+2.5	+1.5	+2.2±3.7
FH crosscourt	23%	−0.2	+1.9	−1.4	+0.3±3.6
BH through the middle	3%	+0.1	−1.3	+2.3	+1.1±1.7
BH inside-in	1%	+2.5	+2.7	+0.2	+5.4±2.7

Lean BH inside-in: +5.6±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1297 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roberto	Value
BH crosscourt	57%	+1.0	+1.7	+0.2	+2.9±1.6
BH through the middle	29%	−2.9	+0.1	+2.3	−0.4±1.4
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	+2.4	+2.5	+4.7±4.2
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−4.0	−1.9	−2.1	−8.0±2.5
BH slice through the middle	2%	−11.3	−1.4	−1.9	−14.6±2.3

Lean BH down the line: +3.5±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (2339 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.