Game plan

Sergi Bruguera v Andrey Rublev

Every number combines what Sergi Bruguera does well with what Andrey Rublev allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Sergi Bruguera wins, best of 3 27%90%: 10%–52% · best of 5: 22%

Serve points won 61.1% / 66.1% Sergi / Andrey · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 27%serve 61.1% / 66.1%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Sergi Bruguera's record against Andrey Rublev's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Sergi	Andrey
Direction choice	+0.01 ±0.08 better than 60%	+0.03 ±0.04 better than 64%
Shot selection	−0.31 ±0.17 better than 22%	−0.01 ±0.06 better than 52%
Execution	+0.28 ±0.45 better than 79%	+0.89 ±0.28 better than 94%
Points left on the table	2.58 ±0.24 lower than 51%	2.39 ±0.07 lower than 74%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Sergi Bruguera serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Sergi wins	v Andrey	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	68%	74%	69.7%±4.4	61% ▲
Body	10%	69%	60%	66.3%±8.5	0% ▼
T	42%	67%	72%	64.3%±5.0	39% ▼

Optimal v Andrey Rublev: +0.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Sergi wins	v Andrey	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	65%	68%	72%	66.9%±4.2	60% ▼
Body	8%	54%	60%	50.6%±9.9	0% ▼
T	27%	70%	74%	71.7%±5.6	40% ▲

Optimal v Andrey Rublev: +0.7±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Andrey Rublev serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Andrey wins	v Sergi	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	74%	72%	73.5%±4.3	57% ▲
Body	5%	68%	71%	75.7%±6.9	0% ▼
T	51%	80%	73%	77.8%±4.1	43% ▼

Optimal v Sergi Bruguera: +0.2±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Andrey wins	v Sergi	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	77%	69%	73.1%±4.3	42% ▼
Body	4%	68%	64%	69.1%±8.5	0% ▼
T	44%	73%	72%	73.6%±5.1	58% ▲

Optimal v Sergi Bruguera: +0.4±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +0.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Sergi Bruguera returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andrey	Value
FH slice through the middle	26%	−4.2	−0.6	+0.8	−4.1±1.9
FH through the middle	25%	+4.3	−0.8	+2.7	+6.1±2.2
FH down the line	17%	+1.7	−3.4	+0.8	−0.9±3.7
FH slice down the line	17%	−4.3	−1.4	+2.2	−3.5±3.1
FH crosscourt	7%	+5.5	−1.6	+5.0	+8.9±3.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +8.7±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (409 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andrey	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	−2.2	+3.1	+7.3±1.9
BH crosscourt	35%	+8.8	−0.1	+3.6	+12.4±2.6
BH down the line	9%	+4.2	−2.3	+2.4	+4.3±4.0
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	+0.4	−0.5	−4.2±2.0
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	−1.0	+0.3	−0.2±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.5±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (489 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andrey	Value
FH through the middle	45%	−3.5	+2.8	+1.1	+0.5±2.3
FH crosscourt	26%	−0.2	+1.5	+2.4	+3.6±3.7
FH down the line	17%	−1.8	+2.2	+1.0	+1.4±3.8
FH slice crosscourt	7%	−12.5	−0.4	−1.0	−13.9±2.1
FH slice down the line	4%	−9.4	+0.3	−1.0	−10.1±2.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.7±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (135 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andrey	Value
BH crosscourt	45%	+1.0	+2.0	+0.9	+3.9±2.2
BH through the middle	34%	−2.9	−2.5	+0.3	−5.1±1.8
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	−0.8	+7.5	+6.5±4.0
FH through the middle	6%	−2.9	+0.2	+1.1	−1.6±1.8
FH inside-out	5%	+1.0	+0.2	+1.0	+2.2±2.9

Lean BH down the line: +6.0±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (330 returns charted)

Andrey Rublev returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sergi	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	+1.4	−3.0	+2.7±1.9
FH crosscourt	24%	+5.5	+3.9	+1.3	+10.7±3.4
FH down the line	13%	+1.7	+2.5	−2.9	+1.3±3.7
FH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−2.9	+1.0	−6.1±1.9
FH slice crosscourt	4%	−4.3	−0.6	±0.0	−4.9±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +7.5±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (2295 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sergi	Value
BH through the middle	47%	+6.4	+3.2	−1.1	+8.5±2.0
BH crosscourt	32%	+8.8	+3.9	+0.4	+13.2±2.6
BH down the line	9%	+4.2	+4.2	+1.9	+10.3±4.0
BH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	−0.6	+1.7	−3.1±2.2
BH slice crosscourt	3%	+0.5	−2.2	+1.9	+0.2±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.3±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (2738 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sergi	Value
FH through the middle	44%	−3.5	+1.0	+1.6	−0.8±2.5
FH crosscourt	29%	−0.2	+0.6	+2.5	+2.9±4.0
FH down the line	21%	−1.8	−0.4	+1.7	−0.5±4.3
BH through the middle	2%	+0.1	−0.7	+0.7	+0.1±1.9
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	−0.3	±0.0	−13.0±1.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.7±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (677 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sergi	Value
BH crosscourt	43%	+1.0	+0.8	+0.9	+2.8±2.4
BH through the middle	39%	−2.9	+0.8	+0.7	−1.4±2.0
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	+2.3	+2.5	+4.7±4.5
FH through the middle	4%	−2.9	−1.1	+1.6	−2.3±2.3
FH inside-in	2%	+0.6	+1.0	+2.5	+4.0±4.4

Lean BH down the line: +3.5±4.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (2289 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Sergi Bruguera

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return	+5.2±3.5	±0.0	+5.3
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+4.1±2.5	+2.3	+1.8
FH to their forehand · return	+3.4±3.6	−0.7	+4.1
FH to the middle · return +1	+2.8±2.2	+2.0	+0.9
FH to the middle · rally	+2.8±1.3	+1.6	+1.2
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+2.3±3.5	+1.2	+1.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return +1	−5.2±4.0	−4.4	−0.7
BH slice to the middle · rally	−2.4±1.8	+0.1	−2.5
BH to the middle · return	−1.9±1.3	−3.0	+1.1
BH to their forehand · rally	−1.7±2.4	±0.0	−1.7
BH slice to their forehand · rally	−1.6±3.1	+0.4	−1.9

Andrey Rublev

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	+6.2±3.1	+3.9	+2.3
FH volley to their forehand · rally	+5.1±5.5	−1.4	+6.5
BH to their forehand · return	+4.7±3.7	+1.8	+2.9
BH to their backhand · return	+3.3±2.0	+2.2	+1.1
BH slice to their backhand · return +1	+2.9±2.4	−0.4	+3.3
BH to the middle · return	+2.6±1.7	+2.1	+0.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to their forehand · rally	−3.8±5.8	−4.9	+1.1
FH volley to their backhand · rally	−2.5±5.7	−1.4	−1.1
BH to their forehand · return +1	−2.3±4.0	+0.8	−3.1
BH slice to the middle · rally	−2.2±1.8	−2.7	+0.5
FH to the middle · return +1	−1.6±2.2	−1.2	−0.5

Against Andrey Rublev-like opponents

Sergi Bruguera v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	60.7%	37.4%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Karen Khachanov, Laslo Djere, Rinky Hijikata, Aleksandar Vukic, Borna Coric, David Goffin, Juan Pablo Varillas, Thanasi Kokkinakis, Kyle Edmund, Robin Soderling. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.