Game plan
Todd Martin v Pete Sampras
Every number combines what Todd Martin does well with what Pete Sampras allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Todd Martin's record against Pete Sampras's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +2.1 on serve, −1.3 on return vs expectation (1024 points); head-to-head: −0.8 on serve, ±0.0 on return vs expectation (1217 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Todd | Pete |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | +0.03 ±0.11 better than 64% | +0.37 ±0.04 better than 99% |
| Shot selection | +0.31 ±0.16 better than 81% | +0.63 ±0.06 better than 96% |
| Execution | −0.61 ±0.46 better than 40% | −0.32 ±0.18 better than 52% |
| Points left on the table | 3.44 ±0.26 lower than 9% | 3.11 ±0.10 lower than 15% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Todd Martin serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Todd wins | v Pete | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 42% | 80% | 76% | 82.7%±3.3 | 55% ▲ |
| Body | 10% | 64% | 65% | 65.8%±7.1 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 47% | 78% | 73% | 76.3%±3.6 | 45% ▼ |
Optimal v Pete Sampras: +0.8±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +4.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Todd wins | v Pete | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 44% | 72% | 72% | 71.0%±4.1 | 57% ▲ |
| Body | 13% | 62% | 65% | 63.8%±7.3 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 43% | 71% | 74% | 73.5%±4.2 | 43% |
Optimal v Pete Sampras: +0.5±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Pete Sampras serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Pete wins | v Todd | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 42% | 80% | 78% | 84.2%±2.7 | 55% ▲ |
| Body | 6% | 67% | 62% | 65.9%±7.7 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 52% | 85% | 76% | 85.9%±2.7 | 45% ▼ |
Optimal v Todd Martin: +0.9±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +1.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Pete wins | v Todd | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 42% | 80% | 76% | 83.0%±3.1 | 55% ▲ |
| Body | 6% | 71% | 58% | 66.4%±7.9 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 52% | 79% | 70% | 77.7%±3.5 | 45% ▼ |
Optimal v Todd Martin: +0.6±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Todd Martin returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Pete | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 46% | +4.3 | −2.0 | −3.1 | −0.8±1.7 |
| FH crosscourt | 27% | +5.5 | −1.3 | −2.1 | +2.1±3.0 |
| FH down the line | 25% | +1.7 | −2.0 | −0.2 | −0.6±3.1 |
| FH slice through the middle | 1% | −4.2 | +0.1 | −1.8 | −5.9±2.0 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +2.2±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (583 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Pete | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 38% | +6.4 | −2.2 | −5.0 | −0.7±1.8 |
| BH crosscourt | 25% | +8.8 | +2.4 | −1.1 | +10.2±2.5 |
| BH down the line | 16% | +4.2 | +1.7 | −6.0 | −0.2±3.7 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 10% | +0.5 | −1.9 | −3.7 | −5.0±2.5 |
| BH slice through the middle | 9% | −4.2 | −1.3 | −3.3 | −8.8±2.0 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +9.6±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (509 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Pete | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 44% | −3.5 | −1.8 | −1.4 | −6.7±2.1 |
| FH crosscourt | 29% | −0.2 | +3.7 | −0.7 | +2.7±3.6 |
| FH down the line | 27% | −1.8 | +0.9 | −0.9 | −1.8±3.7 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +5.3±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (217 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Pete | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 35% | −2.9 | −1.6 | −2.1 | −6.6±1.8 |
| BH crosscourt | 34% | +1.0 | +1.2 | +1.1 | +3.3±2.3 |
| BH down the line | 21% | −0.2 | −3.4 | −4.0 | −7.7±4.0 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 6% | −4.0 | −1.0 | +1.0 | −4.0±2.0 |
| BH slice through the middle | 3% | −11.3 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −11.5±1.7 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +6.8±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (324 returns charted)
Pete Sampras returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Todd | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 41% | +4.3 | −2.4 | −2.3 | −0.4±1.9 |
| FH crosscourt | 34% | +5.5 | −1.8 | +1.9 | +5.6±3.2 |
| FH down the line | 15% | +1.7 | +1.8 | +3.3 | +6.8±3.4 |
| FH slice through the middle | 4% | −4.2 | +2.1 | −0.6 | −2.7±1.9 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 2% | −4.3 | +4.9 | ±0.0 | +0.5±2.0 |
| BH inside-out | 0% | +6.3 | +3.5 | −0.1 | +9.7±3.8 |
Lean BH inside-out: +7.0±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (3531 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Todd | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice through the middle | 29% | −4.2 | +2.3 | −2.3 | −4.1±1.6 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 25% | +0.5 | +4.0 | +0.1 | +4.7±2.1 |
| BH through the middle | 18% | +6.4 | −1.8 | −3.9 | +0.8±1.9 |
| BH crosscourt | 13% | +8.8 | +0.5 | −1.3 | +8.0±2.7 |
| BH slice down the line | 8% | −8.4 | +4.6 | +2.9 | −0.9±2.9 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +6.6±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (5404 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Todd | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 37% | −0.2 | +2.3 | −0.9 | +1.2±3.7 |
| FH through the middle | 30% | −3.5 | −1.8 | +1.3 | −3.9±2.3 |
| FH down the line | 17% | −1.8 | +0.3 | −0.8 | −2.3±4.1 |
| BH through the middle | 4% | +0.1 | +0.3 | +1.1 | +1.5±1.9 |
| BH slice through the middle | 3% | −6.9 | −1.9 | +1.1 | −7.7±2.2 |
Lean BH through the middle: +3.2±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (1157 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Todd | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 26% | −2.9 | −0.3 | +1.1 | −2.1±1.7 |
| BH crosscourt | 24% | +1.0 | −0.1 | −1.0 | −0.1±2.2 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 20% | −4.0 | +1.5 | +0.8 | −1.7±1.9 |
| BH down the line | 10% | −0.2 | −0.5 | +1.9 | +1.1±4.1 |
| BH slice through the middle | 8% | −11.3 | +2.6 | +1.1 | −7.6±2.1 |
| FH inside-out | 5% | +1.0 | +1.5 | −0.8 | +1.7±3.3 |
Lean FH inside-out: +3.3±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (4084 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Todd Martin
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their forehand · return +1 | +3.7±4.9 | +0.7 | +3.0 |
| FH to their forehand · return | +3.1±4.0 | +3.8 | −0.7 |
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | +2.4±2.6 | +0.3 | +2.1 |
| BH to their backhand · return +1 | +2.4±3.0 | +1.0 | +1.4 |
| BH to their backhand · serve +1 | +2.2±2.8 | +1.8 | +0.4 |
| FH to their forehand · return +1 | +1.9±4.2 | +0.9 | +1.0 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to the middle · return +1 | −8.2±2.7 | −5.1 | −3.2 |
| FH volley to the middle · serve +1 | −7.2±3.8 | −4.9 | −2.3 |
| FH volley to their forehand · serve +1 | −5.9±4.1 | −1.6 | −4.3 |
| BH to the middle · return | −5.5±1.8 | −1.8 | −3.7 |
| BH to their forehand · return | −4.9±4.1 | −0.3 | −4.6 |
Pete Sampras
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | +8.1±3.2 | +4.5 | +3.6 |
| BH slice to their forehand · return | +7.0±3.6 | +5.1 | +1.9 |
| BH slice to the middle · rally | +6.7±2.4 | +3.0 | +3.7 |
| FH to their backhand · return | +3.7±3.3 | +2.0 | +1.6 |
| BH to the middle · serve +1 | +3.6±2.8 | +4.1 | −0.5 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | +3.4±3.8 | +0.5 | +3.0 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their forehand · rally | −6.9±2.7 | −5.3 | −1.6 |
| FH to the middle · return +1 | −5.5±2.9 | −1.5 | −4.0 |
| FH to their forehand · return +1 | −5.0±3.9 | −5.3 | +0.3 |
| BH to their forehand · return +1 | −4.1±4.8 | −3.1 | −1.0 |
| FH to the middle · rally | −4.0±2.4 | −2.5 | −1.5 |
Against Pete Sampras-like opponents
| Todd Martin v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 65.1% | 34.0% |
| Players most similar to Pete Sampras | 4 | 66.9% | 36.5% |
| Pete Sampras (charted head-to-head) | 6 | 64.1% | 31.2% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Gilles Muller, Mario Ancic, Tim Henman, Mark Philippoussis, Boris Becker, Michael Stich, Malivai Washington, Guy Forget, Brad Gilbert. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.
Charted head-to-head
- Pete Sampras v Todd Martin Paris Masters SF · Hard · 7 Nov 1998
- Todd Martin v Pete Sampras Memphis F · Hard · 25 Feb 1996
- Todd Martin v Pete Sampras Wimbledon SF · Grass · 2 Jul 1994
- Todd Martin v Pete Sampras Queens Club F · Grass · 12 Jun 1994
- Pete Sampras v Todd Martin Australian Open F · Hard · 30 Jan 1994
- Pete Sampras v Todd Martin US Open R32 · Hard · 5 Sep 1992