Game plan

Yannick Hanfmann v Arthur Rinderknech

Every number combines what Yannick Hanfmann does well with what Arthur Rinderknech allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Yannick Hanfmann wins, best of 3 61%90%: 34%–84% · best of 5: 64%

Serve points won 66.3% / 63.9% Yannick / Arthur · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 61%serve 66.3% / 63.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Yannick Hanfmann's record against Arthur Rinderknech's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Yannick	Arthur
Direction choice	+0.01 ±0.14 better than 58%	−0.22 ±0.10 better than 12%
Shot selection	+0.22 ±0.32 better than 74%	+0.45 ±0.17 better than 90%
Execution	−0.66 ±0.91 better than 38%	−0.47 ±0.72 better than 46%
Points left on the table	2.68 ±0.23 lower than 41%	3.12 ±0.16 lower than 14%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Yannick Hanfmann serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Yannick wins	v Arthur	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	61%	76%	65.1%±7.6	36% ▼
Body	9%	53%	71%	61.6%±12.5	0% ▼
T	51%	73%	80%	78.4%±6.1	64% ▲

Optimal v Arthur Rinderknech: +1.0±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +6.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Yannick wins	v Arthur	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	64%	81%	73.5%±6.9	49% ▼
Body	8%	55%	67%	59.7%±13.8	0% ▼
T	38%	68%	80%	76.7%±6.8	51% ▲

Optimal v Arthur Rinderknech: +1.1±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +3.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Arthur Rinderknech serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Arthur wins	v Yannick	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	76%	76%	78.9%±5.9	58% ▲
Body	11%	63%	63%	63.4%±12.3	12%
T	43%	74%	73%	72.1%±7.3	30% ▼

Optimal v Yannick Hanfmann: +0.7±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Arthur wins	v Yannick	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	79%	75%	81.5%±5.8	42% ▼
Body	9%	61%	71%	68.4%±12.4	0% ▼
T	45%	73%	78%	78.2%±6.7	58% ▲

Optimal v Yannick Hanfmann: +0.6±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Yannick Hanfmann returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Arthur	Value
FH through the middle	60%	+4.3	+1.0	−1.0	+4.3±2.7
FH crosscourt	21%	+5.5	−0.2	−3.6	+1.7±4.4
FH down the line	9%	+1.7	−0.4	−1.5	−0.2±4.2
FH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	+0.1	+0.8	−3.2±2.1
FH slice down the line	3%	−4.3	−1.0	+0.6	−4.6±2.2

Lean FH through the middle: +1.7±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (186 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Arthur	Value
BH crosscourt	38%	+8.8	−1.8	+1.1	+8.1±3.5
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	+0.5	−1.1	+5.8±2.7
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−0.1	±0.0	−4.3±2.4
BH down the line	8%	+4.2	+0.8	+0.2	+5.3±4.3
BH slice crosscourt	7%	+0.5	−1.9	−4.2	−5.6±2.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.1±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (208 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Arthur	Value
FH through the middle	64%	−3.5	−1.5	±0.0	−4.9±2.8
FH crosscourt	36%	−0.2	+5.7	+3.8	+9.2±4.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +9.1±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (64 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Arthur	Value
BH through the middle	48%	−2.9	+0.9	±0.0	−2.0±2.4
BH crosscourt	39%	+1.0	+0.2	+0.9	+2.1±3.1
BH down the line	8%	−0.2	+1.5	−1.1	+0.2±4.1
FH through the middle	5%	−2.9	+0.5	±0.0	−2.3±2.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.4±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (151 returns charted)

Arthur Rinderknech returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yannick	Value
FH through the middle	41%	+4.3	+1.8	+3.5	+9.5±2.7
FH down the line	23%	+1.7	+5.2	+0.3	+7.2±4.5
FH crosscourt	17%	+5.5	−1.0	+2.6	+7.1±4.4
FH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−3.8	−0.3	−8.3±2.2
FH slice down the line	5%	−4.3	−1.0	±0.0	−5.2±1.9

Lean FH through the middle: +4.0±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (319 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yannick	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	+2.7	+2.8	+11.9±2.5
BH crosscourt	23%	+8.8	+0.2	+3.1	+12.1±3.6
BH down the line	12%	+4.2	−1.0	+1.1	+4.4±4.6
BH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	+0.2	+0.1	−3.9±2.5
BH slice crosscourt	7%	+0.5	−3.9	+1.1	−2.3±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.6±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (346 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yannick	Value
FH through the middle	39%	−3.5	+2.9	+0.3	−0.4±2.9
FH down the line	33%	−1.8	+1.2	+2.4	+1.8±4.5
FH crosscourt	28%	−0.2	+2.6	+3.6	+5.9±4.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.8±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (72 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yannick	Value
BH through the middle	39%	−2.9	+0.2	+1.6	−1.1±2.5
BH crosscourt	23%	+1.0	+2.2	−0.5	+2.7±3.3
FH through the middle	15%	−2.9	−1.0	+0.3	−3.6±2.4
FH inside-in	11%	+0.6	+1.9	+3.6	+6.0±4.3
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	−4.0	−2.7	−6.9±4.5

Lean FH inside-in: +6.2±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (270 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Yannick Hanfmann

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	+3.6±4.4	+4.1	−0.4
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.2±3.4	−1.3	+4.5
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+2.6±3.5	−0.7	+3.3
FH to their backhand · rally	+1.8±2.9	±0.0	+1.8
BH to the middle · return +1	+1.2±2.6	+0.2	+0.9
FH to the middle · rally	+0.9±2.3	−0.5	+1.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−5.4±3.1	−5.6	+0.2
BH to their backhand · return +1	−3.4±3.4	−3.6	+0.2
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.7±2.9	−4.0	+1.3
BH to the middle · rally	−1.3±2.2	−1.8	+0.5
FH to their forehand · return +1	−1.2±4.2	−0.7	−0.5

Arthur Rinderknech

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+6.0±2.1	+2.4	+3.6
FH to their backhand · return	+5.4±4.0	+3.6	+1.8
FH to the middle · return	+4.0±2.3	+0.6	+3.4
FH to their forehand · return	+3.1±4.4	−1.1	+4.2
BH to their backhand · return	+3.0±3.1	+1.3	+1.7
FH to their forehand · return +1	+2.0±4.2	−0.6	+2.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−6.6±3.3	−3.7	−2.9
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−4.5±3.7	−2.1	−2.4
BH to the middle · return +1	−4.1±2.5	−1.8	−2.3
BH to their backhand · return +1	−3.4±3.5	−1.9	−1.6
BH to their forehand · rally	−2.9±4.5	−1.4	−1.5

Against Arthur Rinderknech-like opponents

Yannick Hanfmann v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	59.8%	35.5%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Jiri Lehecka, Ben Shelton, Zhizhen Zhang, Nuno Borges, Alexander Shevchenko, Zizou Bergs, Alexandre Muller, Gabriel Diallo, Otto Virtanen, Lukas Rosol. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.