Game plan

Yuichi Sugita v Hugo Gaston

Every number combines what Yuichi Sugita does well with what Hugo Gaston allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Yuichi Sugita wins, best of 3 41%90%: 11%–78% · best of 5: 39%

Serve points won 57.1% / 58.8% Yuichi / Hugo · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 41%serve 57.1% / 58.8%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Yuichi Sugita's record against Hugo Gaston's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Yuichi Sugita serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Yuichi wins	v Hugo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	28%	65%	68%	60.4%±12.6	41% ▲
Body	4%	62%	54%	52.3%±17.7	0% ▼
T	68%	70%	75%	69.6%±10.1	59% ▼

Optimal v Hugo Gaston: +0.2±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Yuichi wins	v Hugo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	58%	58%	79%	65.7%±11.2	58%
Body	13%	63%	60%	60.6%±16.2	0% ▼
T	29%	69%	73%	70.4%±12.5	42% ▲

Optimal v Hugo Gaston: +0.5±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Hugo Gaston serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Hugo wins	v Yuichi	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	69%	77%	74.0%±10.3	54% ▲
Body	16%	66%	58%	61.0%±16.0	3% ▼
T	43%	67%	79%	71.8%±10.8	43%

Optimal v Yuichi Sugita: +0.4±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Hugo wins	v Yuichi	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	67%	72%	66%	64.5%±10.6	61% ▼
Body	7%	66%	66%	68.2%±16.2	0% ▼
T	26%	75%	68%	71.3%±12.4	39% ▲

Optimal v Yuichi Sugita: +0.3±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Yuichi Sugita returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Hugo	Value
FH through the middle	52%	+4.3	+1.4	−1.9	+3.7±3.1
FH down the line	31%	+1.7	−2.1	−3.4	−3.9±4.2
FH crosscourt	17%	+5.5	+0.4	−1.0	+4.9±4.0

Lean FH through the middle: +2.1±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (75 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Hugo	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	+1.6	+2.1	+10.1±2.6
BH crosscourt	36%	+8.8	+1.4	−1.3	+8.9±3.4
BH slice through the middle	15%	−4.2	−0.2	+0.6	−3.8±2.1
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	+0.4	±0.0	+4.7±3.9

Lean BH through the middle: +3.1±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (66 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Hugo	Value
BH through the middle	52%	−2.9	+1.9	−0.1	−1.1±2.5
BH crosscourt	48%	+1.0	+1.5	−0.5	+2.0±3.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.6±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (52 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Hugo Gaston returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yuichi	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.3	+0.5	−1.1	+3.7±3.1
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.5	−4.2	+1.2	+2.6±4.1
FH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	−0.5	±0.0	−4.7±1.6
FH down the line	16%	+1.7	−2.1	−0.5	−0.9±4.0
FH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.3	−0.1	±0.0	−4.4±1.4

Lean FH through the middle: +2.8±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (152 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yuichi	Value
BH through the middle	39%	+6.4	−1.1	+1.0	+6.3±2.8
BH crosscourt	34%	+8.8	−3.4	+0.1	+5.5±3.2
BH slice through the middle	13%	−4.2	−1.4	+1.5	−4.1±2.4
BH down the line	9%	+4.2	−1.4	+1.6	+4.3±3.9
BH slice crosscourt	4%	+0.5	−1.4	+0.3	−0.5±2.1

Lean BH through the middle: +2.1±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (180 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yuichi	Value
FH through the middle	44%	−3.5	+0.4	+1.6	−1.5±2.8
FH crosscourt	37%	−0.2	+0.1	−1.7	−1.8±4.2
FH down the line	13%	−1.8	−1.2	−1.1	−4.1±3.3
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−12.5	±0.0	±0.0	−12.5±1.3

Lean FH through the middle: +1.1±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (84 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yuichi	Value
BH through the middle	55%	−2.9	−1.4	+0.7	−3.6±2.5
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.0	−0.8	+0.7	+1.0±3.0
BH down the line	8%	−0.2	−1.0	−0.9	−2.2±3.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.7±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (80 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Yuichi Sugita

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+4.9±3.6	+3.4	+1.5
FH to the middle · rally	+2.3±3.8	+1.7	+0.5
BH to the middle · rally	+1.9±3.5	+1.5	+0.4
BH to their forehand · rally	+0.9±5.8	−0.8	+1.7
FH to their backhand · rally	−0.3±4.7	−0.8	+0.5
FH to the middle · return	−1.4±4.2	+3.6	−5.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−9.4±5.5	−7.8	−1.6
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−4.8±6.0	−1.4	−3.4
BH to their backhand · rally	−2.8±4.3	−1.7	−1.1
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.4±4.7	−0.3	−2.1
FH to the middle · return	−1.4±4.2	+3.6	−5.0

Hugo Gaston

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+7.2±5.3	+5.0	+2.2
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.7±5.7	+0.8	+2.9
BH to the middle · rally	−1.0±3.4	−0.6	−0.5
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.5±4.5	+2.6	−4.1
FH to the middle · rally	−1.5±3.7	+1.6	−3.1
BH to their backhand · rally	−4.5±4.4	−1.8	−2.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	−4.5±4.4	−1.8	−2.7
FH to the middle · rally	−1.5±3.7	+1.6	−3.1
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.5±4.5	+2.6	−4.1
BH to the middle · rally	−1.0±3.4	−0.6	−0.5
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.7±5.7	+0.8	+2.9

Against Hugo Gaston-like opponents

Yuichi Sugita v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	59.1%	38.0%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Bublik, Luciano Darderi, Pedro Martinez, Yannick Hanfmann, Mattia Bellucci, Benoit Paire, Marco Cecchinato, Gustavo Kuerten, Gaston Gaudio. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.