RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 10 charted matches · 1987–1991

Jonas Svensson

Archetype: Blocks returns short · Works the corners

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 62.1% ±3.2 raw 58.7% · tour 63.4% · 981 points
Return points won 38.5% ±3.3 raw 36.0% · tour 36.6% · 988 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.30 ±0.19 better than 6% of ATP · raw −0.29
Shot selection −0.33 ±0.25 better than 20% of ATP · raw −0.32
Execution −0.50 ±0.41 better than 45% of ATP · raw −0.45
Tactical adaptability +0.07 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 10 matches
Adaptation speed −0.05 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 3.29 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 11% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 5,005 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Jonas Svensson goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 262 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 23% 47.6%±9.1 47.6%
BH down the line 16% 43.1%±10.4 46.4%
BH through the middle 15% 47.8%±10.8 43.7%
BH slice crosscourt 15% 42.2%±10.7 42.5%
BH slice down the line 10% 42.2%±12.0 37.1%
BH slice through the middle 9% 43.2%±12.3 35.1%
FH inside-out 4% 44.6%±14.9 51.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 154 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 37% 44.1%±9.3 44.7%
FH through the middle 29% 32.8%±9.6 41.5%
FH crosscourt 29% 35.9%±9.8 46.6%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 143 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 24% 46.8%±11.2 51.5%
FH through the middle 13% 42.1%±13.0 47.0%
FH crosscourt 13% 54.1%±13.3 52.7%
BH through the middle 10% 51.1%±14.1 46.8%
BH crosscourt 10% 52.4%±14.1 49.1%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 135 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 30% 48.5%±10.5 48.0%
BH slice down the line 16% 48.0%±12.7 35.8%
BH slice crosscourt 14% 47.2%±13.2 42.1%
BH through the middle 10% 37.5%±13.7 43.8%
BH down the line 10% 47.9%±14.1 46.5%
BH slice through the middle 9% 34.5%±13.8 35.1%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +4 How much less varied Jonas Svensson's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 102 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 57% 48% ▼ 72% / 73%
Body 23% 26% 63% / 63%
T 20% 26% 69% / 75%

474 normal · 23 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 49% 58% ▲ 62% / 73%
Body 21% 18% 64% / 63%
T 30% 24% 56% / 72%

376 normal · 79 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide56% 64.5%±4.5 n=280 69% ▲
Body23% 60.0%±6.7 n=116 10% ▼
T20% 57.3%±7.1 n=101 21%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.23).
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide51% 58.9%±5.0 n=230 64% ▲
Body21% 57.7%±7.3 n=94 20%
T29% 47.2%±6.5 n=131 16% ▼

Off equilibrium (p = 0.017): serve wide more. Gap 3.6 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.53 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −0.7±3.5 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (366 repeats, 566 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 47 36% −0.5±9.0
1stAd courtT 93 27% −0.9±6.6
1stAd courtWide 110 29% +2.2±6.3
1stDeuce courtBody 50 33% −4.2±8.6
1stDeuce courtT 119 24% −1.2±5.7
1stDeuce courtWide 118 26% −0.7±6.0
2ndAd courtBody 66 41% −7.9±8.3
2ndAd courtT 19 51% +1.3±11.7
2ndAd courtWide 128 45% −3.7±6.5
2ndDeuce courtBody 90 47% −1.8±7.5
2ndDeuce courtT 69 50% +0.7±8.3
2ndDeuce courtWide 42 53% +5.3±9.7

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Jonas Svensson's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 3.8% · won 71% · +8.4±10.0 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.9% · won 61% · −1.6±10.6 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 4.7% · won 59% · −3.3±10.2 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 4.2% · won 59% · −3.7±10.5 vs own baseline
  5. Body serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 4.7% · won 56% · −6.6±10.3 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 4.9% · won 45% · +10.6±10.9 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, short used 4.1% · won 43% · +8.3±11.3 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 4.7% · won 37% · +2.3±10.7 vs own baseline
  4. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, short used 4.3% · won 37% · +1.8±10.9 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 5.6% · won 36% · +0.9±10.2 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 4.9% · won 56% · +11.7±10.9 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 4.7% · won 49% · +5.4±11.1 vs own baseline
  3. BH down the line → FH crosscourt used 3.9% · won 47% · +3.4±11.6 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 5.0% · won 46% · +2.0±10.9 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 3.7% · won 44% · +0.4±11.7 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Jonas Svensson wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 53% · +5.9±12.8 vs own baseline · +14.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Stefan Edberg (5/10)
  2. BH down the line → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 0.8% · won 47% · ±0.0±12.4 vs own baseline · +0.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Paolo Cane (2/7)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH slice to their backhand · rally+0.3148
BH to their backhand · serve +1+0.1124
BH to their backhand · return−0.2165
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.6280
BH to their backhand · rally−0.7227

Most exposed to

BH slice to their backhand · return−3.8157
FH to their backhand · serve +1−2.2120
Wide 2nd serve · ad court−1.5128
BH slice to the middle · return−1.5130
BH slice to their backhand · rally−1.5192

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Andy Murray, Kei Nishikori, Richard Gasquet, Casper Ruud, Novak Djokovic

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Wide serves · deuce56%
BH down the line28%
FH down the line34%
1st serve in64%
Points at net16%
Run-around forehands24%
Drop shots / shot2.2%
Backhand slice28%
Avg rally length4.2
Serve & volley10%
Through the middle25%
Wide serves · ad51%
Point-ending shots22.3%
Unforced errors / shot8.9%
Chipped returns6%
Forehand share46%
T serves · ad29%
Deep returns13%
T serves · deuce20%

Plays most like

  1. Jiri Novak 1996–2004 plan v
  2. Valentin Vacherot 2024–2026 plan v
  3. Jaume Munar 2018–2026 plan v
  4. Guillermo Coria 2002–2005 plan v
  5. Magnus Norman 2000–2001 plan v
  6. Alex Michelsen 2023–2026 plan v
  7. Andrei Medvedev 1992–2000 plan v
  8. Carlos Alcaraz 2019–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Valentin Vacherot 2024–2026
  2. Jaume Munar 2018–2026
  3. Alex Michelsen 2023–2026

Charted matches