Game plan

Alexander Bublik v Alexander Zverev

Every number combines what Alexander Bublik does well with what Alexander Zverev allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Alexander Bublik wins, best of 3 32%90%: 14%–55% · best of 5: 28%

Serve points won 65.3% / 69.2% Alexander / Alexander · tour 63.5%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 27%serve 64.4% / 69.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. Both were charted enough in the last three seasons, so those carry the most weight. The result is then nudged by Alexander Bublik's record against Alexander Zverev's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +1.3 on serve, −0.2 on return vs expectation (743 points); head-to-head: +8.7 on serve, +4.9 on return vs expectation (236 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Alexander	Alexander
Direction choice	−0.07 ±0.06 better than 39%	+0.04 ±0.04 better than 68%
Shot selection	−0.42 ±0.11 better than 15%	+0.09 ±0.06 better than 64%
Execution	−0.93 ±0.38 better than 26%	+0.83 ±0.20 better than 92%
Points left on the table	2.88 ±0.13 lower than 26%	2.45 ±0.06 lower than 67%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Alexander Bublik −0.57, Alexander Zverev +0.07. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Alexander Bublik serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alexander wins	v Alexander	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	77%	74%	78.1%±2.4	54% ▲
Body	6%	60%	60%	56.5%±6.8	0% ▼
T	53%	76%	74%	75.2%±2.5	46% ▼

Optimal v Alexander Zverev: +0.8±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alexander wins	v Alexander	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	80%	74%	81.7%±2.3	63% ▲
Body	9%	65%	65%	66.3%±6.1	0% ▼
T	42%	72%	71%	70.8%±2.9	37% ▼

Optimal v Alexander Zverev: +0.3±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Alexander Zverev serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alexander wins	v Alexander	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	74%	74%	75.5%±2.5	59% ▲
Body	6%	62%	66%	64.2%±6.0	0% ▼
T	48%	77%	78%	79.4%±2.3	41% ▼

Optimal v Alexander Bublik: +0.5±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alexander wins	v Alexander	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	75%	76%	78.1%±2.7	57% ▲
Body	8%	64%	64%	65.3%±6.1	0% ▼
T	48%	73%	72%	72.6%±2.7	43% ▼

Optimal v Alexander Bublik: +0.6±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Alexander Bublik returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexander	Value
FH slice through the middle	44%	−4.2	+0.1	−1.5	−5.6±1.3
FH through the middle	19%	+4.3	−1.8	−0.5	+2.0±1.7
FH slice down the line	12%	−4.3	+1.0	−0.5	−3.8±2.7
FH slice crosscourt	10%	−4.3	−1.3	−1.9	−7.6±2.5
FH crosscourt	9%	+5.5	−1.8	+1.2	+4.9±3.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +8.0±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (1535 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexander	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	+1.6	+0.3	+8.3±1.4
BH crosscourt	25%	+8.8	−1.0	−0.6	+7.2±2.1
BH slice through the middle	16%	−4.2	+0.1	−2.4	−6.6±1.7
BH slice crosscourt	10%	+0.5	−4.3	−4.7	−8.4±2.5
BH down the line	8%	+4.2	+3.5	−2.4	+5.3±3.7

Lean BH through the middle: +5.4±1.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1329 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexander	Value
FH through the middle	31%	−3.5	−4.8	−0.2	−8.5±2.1
FH crosscourt	21%	−0.2	+1.0	−2.2	−1.4±3.8
FH slice through the middle	21%	−12.7	−0.3	+1.5	−11.4±2.3
FH down the line	11%	−1.8	−5.0	−4.1	−10.9±4.0
FH slice crosscourt	7%	−12.5	+1.2	+0.5	−10.8±2.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.6±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (420 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexander	Value
BH through the middle	50%	−2.9	−0.3	+0.6	−2.5±1.3
BH crosscourt	31%	+1.0	−1.8	−1.3	−2.1±2.1
BH down the line	12%	−0.2	+1.5	−0.7	+0.6±4.2
FH through the middle	2%	−2.9	−0.9	−0.2	−3.9±1.7
FH inside-in	2%	+0.6	−1.2	−2.2	−2.8±3.4

Lean BH down the line: +2.9±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (834 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Alexander Zverev returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexander	Value
FH through the middle	55%	+4.3	−1.3	+0.7	+3.7±1.3
FH crosscourt	28%	+5.5	−0.9	−1.6	+3.0±3.0
FH down the line	12%	+1.7	−2.8	+1.8	+0.8±3.1
FH slice through the middle	3%	−4.2	+0.2	−1.8	−5.9±1.9
FH slice crosscourt	1%	−4.3	−0.2	−1.8	−6.3±2.8

Lean FH through the middle: +1.0±1.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (4008 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexander	Value
BH through the middle	45%	+6.4	+1.7	+2.2	+10.3±1.3
BH crosscourt	27%	+8.8	+1.9	−0.2	+10.5±2.2
BH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−4.8	−2.6	−11.6±1.8
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	+1.7	−1.2	+4.7±3.6
BH slice crosscourt	5%	+0.5	−5.6	−2.7	−7.8±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.7±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (3276 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexander	Value
FH through the middle	51%	−3.5	+0.2	+0.1	−3.1±1.6
FH crosscourt	34%	−0.2	+0.9	−1.3	−0.6±3.3
FH down the line	11%	−1.8	−0.9	+0.5	−2.1±3.9
BH through the middle	2%	+0.1	+0.4	+0.4	+0.9±1.6
BH inside-in	1%	+2.5	−0.5	−2.5	−0.6±2.9

Lean BH through the middle: +3.0±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1307 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexander	Value
BH crosscourt	49%	+1.0	+1.3	−2.5	−0.2±1.9
BH through the middle	40%	−2.9	+1.0	+0.4	−1.4±1.3
BH down the line	8%	−0.2	+1.4	+0.7	+1.9±4.3
FH through the middle	1%	−2.9	+1.0	+0.1	−1.8±1.9
FH inside-in	1%	+0.6	−3.7	−1.3	−4.4±3.9

Lean BH down the line: +2.6±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (2035 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.