Game plan

Alexandre Muller v Alejandro Tabilo

Every number combines what Alexandre Muller does well with what Alejandro Tabilo allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Alexandre Muller wins, best of 3 8%90%: 2%–24% · best of 5: 4%

Serve points won 56.4% / 67.7% Alexandre / Alejandro · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 7%serve 55.9% / 67.4%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Alexandre Muller's record against Alejandro Tabilo's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +5.6 on serve, −2.8 on return vs expectation (309 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Alexandre	Alejandro
Direction choice	−0.14 ±0.16 better than 20%	−0.10 ±0.09 better than 30%
Shot selection	−0.44 ±0.31 better than 14%	−0.14 ±0.20 better than 34%
Execution	−0.70 ±0.65 better than 36%	+0.14 ±0.46 better than 74%
Points left on the table	2.74 ±0.37 lower than 36%	2.85 ±0.17 lower than 27%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Alexandre Muller serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alexandre wins	v Alejandro	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	65%	72%	64.9%±7.1	62% ▲
Body	12%	55%	64%	55.7%±12.5	0% ▼
T	39%	64%	75%	64.6%±8.9	38%

Optimal v Alejandro Tabilo: +0.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alexandre wins	v Alejandro	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	67%	78%	72.4%±7.5	59% ▲
Body	11%	55%	63%	54.8%±12.8	0% ▼
T	44%	63%	75%	66.4%±7.9	41% ▼

Optimal v Alejandro Tabilo: +0.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Alejandro Tabilo serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alejandro wins	v Alexandre	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	74%	79%	80.1%±5.8	49%
Body	14%	64%	62%	63.2%±12.2	1% ▼
T	37%	72%	80%	76.7%±7.2	50% ▲

Optimal v Alexandre Muller: +0.9±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alejandro wins	v Alexandre	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	69%	79%	75.6%±6.7	62% ▲
Body	10%	62%	71%	69.6%±12.6	0% ▼
T	40%	76%	75%	79.6%±7.0	38% ▼

Optimal v Alexandre Muller: +0.4±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Alexandre Muller returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alejandro	Value
FH through the middle	41%	+4.3	+0.4	−2.6	+2.1±2.8
FH slice through the middle	19%	−4.2	+0.4	−0.3	−4.2±2.3
FH down the line	17%	+1.7	−1.7	−3.8	−3.8±4.5
FH crosscourt	13%	+5.5	−3.1	+1.9	+4.4±4.2
FH slice down the line	6%	−4.3	+1.1	−0.3	−3.6±2.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.8±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (169 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alejandro	Value
BH through the middle	47%	+6.4	+1.0	+1.3	+8.7±2.5
BH crosscourt	24%	+8.8	−1.3	+0.9	+8.3±3.5
BH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	−2.4	+1.4	−5.2±2.4
BH down the line	12%	+4.2	+1.1	−2.1	+3.2±4.4
BH slice crosscourt	3%	+0.5	−1.6	+1.9	+0.8±2.4

Lean BH through the middle: +2.9±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (178 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alejandro	Value
FH through the middle	40%	−3.5	−0.8	−0.3	−4.6±2.6
FH down the line	24%	−1.8	−0.6	−4.3	−6.6±4.3
FH crosscourt	22%	−0.2	+3.0	+0.1	+2.9±3.9
FH slice through the middle	15%	−12.7	+0.8	±0.0	−11.9±1.2

Lean FH through the middle: −0.1±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (55 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alejandro	Value
BH through the middle	45%	−2.9	−0.7	+1.7	−1.9±2.4
BH crosscourt	30%	+1.0	+0.6	−0.7	+0.9±3.2
BH down the line	25%	−0.2	−0.5	−3.3	−4.0±4.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.5±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (115 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Alejandro Tabilo returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandre	Value
FH through the middle	40%	+4.3	+0.1	+2.4	+6.8±2.8
FH slice through the middle	21%	−4.2	−0.4	−0.3	−4.8±2.2
FH crosscourt	15%	+5.5	−2.8	+1.1	+3.8±4.4
FH slice crosscourt	10%	−4.3	+1.3	±0.0	−3.0±2.0
FH down the line	10%	+1.7	+0.4	−0.7	+1.5±4.4

Lean FH through the middle: +5.0±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (278 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandre	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	+0.6	+0.6	+7.7±2.5
BH crosscourt	17%	+8.8	+1.4	+0.2	+10.3±3.5
BH down the line	16%	+4.2	−1.7	+1.3	+3.8±4.6
BH slice through the middle	11%	−4.2	−1.2	±0.0	−5.4±2.5
BH slice down the line	8%	−8.4	−0.1	+0.7	−7.8±3.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.9±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (418 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandre	Value
FH through the middle	43%	−3.5	−0.5	+1.2	−2.7±2.9
FH crosscourt	35%	−0.2	−0.8	−0.6	−1.6±4.4
FH down the line	14%	−1.8	+3.3	−0.6	+0.9±4.4
FH slice through the middle	8%	−12.7	−0.6	±0.0	−13.2±1.2

Lean FH down the line: +3.5±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (106 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandre	Value
BH through the middle	56%	−2.9	+1.6	+1.4	+0.2±2.4
BH crosscourt	28%	+1.0	+1.0	−2.1	±0.0±3.2
BH down the line	14%	−0.2	−2.9	+2.4	−0.8±5.0
FH through the middle	2%	−2.9	+0.4	+1.2	−1.2±2.0

Lean BH through the middle: +0.2±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (244 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Alexandre Muller

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+2.4±5.3	−0.6	+3.0
BH to the middle · return	+1.9±2.7	−0.2	+2.1
BH to their forehand · rally	+1.2±5.1	−2.3	+3.6
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.8±3.3	+0.4	+0.4
FH to their forehand · return +1	+0.7±6.2	+1.7	−1.0
FH to the middle · rally	+0.6±2.9	−0.2	+0.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−7.1±3.8	−1.8	−5.3
BH to their backhand · return	−3.3±4.5	+0.2	−3.6
BH to the middle · serve +1	−3.2±3.6	−2.6	−0.5
FH to the middle · return	−2.9±3.3	+0.6	−3.5
BH to the middle · rally	−2.4±2.5	−1.5	−0.9

Alejandro Tabilo

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.3±3.3	+3.0	+1.4
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+4.2±5.1	−0.6	+4.8
BH to their forehand · rally	+4.1±5.2	+2.4	+1.7
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.9±3.8	+0.2	+3.7
FH to the middle · serve +1	+3.0±3.7	+1.6	+1.4
BH to the middle · return	+2.8±2.8	+2.2	+0.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return	−2.4±5.2	−1.8	−0.7
BH to their backhand · rally	−1.6±3.1	−2.3	+0.7
BH to their backhand · return	−1.6±4.2	−3.1	+1.5
BH to the middle · rally	−0.1±2.4	−1.3	+1.1
FH to the middle · return	+0.3±3.0	−1.0	+1.3

Against Alejandro Tabilo-like opponents

Alexandre Muller v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	55.2%	29.6%
Players most similar to Alejandro Tabilo	2	60.8%	28.5%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Ben Shelton, Carlos Alcaraz, Pablo Carreno Busta, Nuno Borges, Alexander Shevchenko, Zizou Bergs, Luca Nardi, Holger Rune, Gregoire Barrere. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.