RallyIQ

Game plan

Andre Agassi v Yevgeny Kafelnikov

Every number combines what Andre Agassi does well with what Yevgeny Kafelnikov allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Andre Agassi wins, best of 3 63%90%: 40%–81% · best of 5: 66%
Serve points won 64.2% / 61.7% Andre / Yevgeny · tour 65.7%
Strengths only, no similarity priors 61%serve 64.8% / 62.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Andre Agassi's record against Yevgeny Kafelnikov's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +0.1 on serve, +3.7 on return vs expectation (1639 points); head-to-head: −1.7 on serve, −1.6 on return vs expectation (1493 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

CareerAndreYevgeny
Direction choice+0.32 ±0.03
better than 99%		+0.30 ±0.06
better than 98%
Shot selection−0.27 ±0.09
better than 26%		−0.27 ±0.14
better than 26%
Execution+0.69 ±0.17
better than 88%		−0.55 ±0.29
better than 42%
Points left on the table2.13 ±0.07
lower than 97%		2.43 ±0.15
lower than 70%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Andre Agassi serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowAndre winsv YevgenyMatchupOptimal
Wide50%71%76%74.0%±2.863% ▲
Body8%63%60%59.5%±7.10% ▼
T41%73%79%76.8%±2.837% ▼

Optimal v Yevgeny Kafelnikov: +0.8±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowAndre winsv YevgenyMatchupOptimal
Wide59%69%75%70.7%±3.172% ▲
Body4%67%62%65.7%±7.60% ▼
T37%70%72%70.7%±3.228% ▼

Optimal v Yevgeny Kafelnikov: +0.3±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Yevgeny Kafelnikov serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowYevgeny winsv AndreMatchupOptimal
Wide51%72%72%71.3%±2.864% ▲
Body7%66%59%61.5%±6.80% ▼
T42%76%77%78.3%±2.836% ▼

Optimal v Andre Agassi: +0.4±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowYevgeny winsv AndreMatchupOptimal
Wide50%73%72%71.8%±3.144% ▼
Body6%63%58%57.5%±7.50% ▼
T43%69%70%67.4%±3.456% ▲

Optimal v Andre Agassi: +0.3±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Andre Agassi returning

1st serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv YevgenyValue
FH through the middle48%+4.3−0.6−0.1+3.6±1.3
FH crosscourt28%+5.5+2.7−1.9+6.4±2.6
FH down the line23%+1.7+0.2−0.4+1.5±2.6
BH through the middle0%+6.6−0.5−2.0+4.0±2.2
BH inside-in0%+7.7+1.5−3.6+5.6±3.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.5±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (3807 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv YevgenyValue
BH crosscourt39%+8.8+0.2−3.6+5.4±2.2
BH through the middle33%+6.4−2.4−2.0+2.0±1.5
BH down the line9%+4.2−3.3+2.2+3.1±3.7
BH slice through the middle8%−4.2−3.0+0.6−6.6±1.7
BH slice crosscourt8%+0.5−2.5+0.4−1.6±2.3
FH through the middle0%+7.7+0.3−0.1+8.0±1.9

Lean FH through the middle: +5.7±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (4263 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv YevgenyValue
FH through the middle40%−3.5+1.6±0.0−1.9±1.8
FH crosscourt31%−0.2+1.5+1.2+2.5±3.3
FH down the line26%−1.8+1.8−0.1−0.1±3.4
BH through the middle2%+0.1−0.8+0.1−0.6±1.6
BH inside-in1%+2.5+1.2−0.6+3.1±2.7

Lean BH inside-in: +3.1±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1567 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv YevgenyValue
BH crosscourt48%+1.0+0.5−0.6+0.9±1.6
BH through the middle26%−2.9−0.9+0.1−3.7±1.2
BH down the line8%−0.2+3.7−2.8+0.7±3.8
FH inside-out7%+1.0+1.8−0.1+2.6±2.9
FH through the middle5%−2.9−0.5±0.0−3.4±1.9
FH inside-in3%+0.6+4.0+1.2+5.7±3.9

Lean FH inside-in: +6.3±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (3764 returns charted)

Yevgeny Kafelnikov returning

1st serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv AndreValue
FH through the middle46%+4.3−1.0−0.2+3.0±1.5
FH down the line28%+1.7+1.7−1.3+2.0±2.6
FH crosscourt25%+5.5−0.6−0.6+4.3±2.6
BH through the middle1%+6.6−0.1−0.8+5.7±1.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.2±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (998 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv AndreValue
BH through the middle28%+6.4−1.2−0.8+4.4±1.6
BH crosscourt25%+8.8−2.0+1.6+8.4±2.1
BH slice through the middle18%−4.2−0.2+2.7−1.7±1.6
BH slice crosscourt12%+0.5+0.4+5.9+6.8±2.1
BH down the line10%+4.2−0.6+0.5+4.2±3.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.3±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (1105 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv AndreValue
FH down the line34%−1.8−0.4+0.6−1.6±3.3
FH through the middle34%−3.5−0.1+0.2−3.4±2.0
FH crosscourt29%−0.2−4.3+0.7−3.8±3.2
BH through the middle2%+0.1+1.3+0.5+1.8±1.3
BH inside-out1%+0.9−1.2+2.3+2.0±2.5

Lean FH down the line: +1.1±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (473 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv AndreValue
BH crosscourt44%+1.0−1.3+1.1+0.7±1.6
BH through the middle25%−2.9−1.3+0.5−3.7±1.5
BH down the line17%−0.2+2.1+2.3+4.2±3.5
BH slice crosscourt5%−4.0−1.5+2.9−2.6±2.0
BH slice through the middle4%−11.3−1.7+2.1−10.9±2.0

Lean BH down the line: +4.8±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (1049 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Andre Agassi

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH to their forehand · serve +1+8.9±4.0+5.9+3.0
BH to their backhand · return +1+7.8±4.5+3.3+4.4
BH to their forehand · return+7.5±5.2+3.1+4.4
FH to their forehand · return+7.1±5.0+4.1+3.0
BH slice to their backhand · serve +1+6.8±3.6+4.1+2.7
FH to their forehand · return +1+6.7±5.1+3.0+3.7

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH volley to their forehand · serve +1−6.5±8.0−3.2−3.3
BH volley to their backhand · serve +1−5.6±6.9+1.2−6.8
BH slice to the middle · return−5.2±3.0−3.4−1.8
BH to the middle · rally−5.0±2.6−3.4−1.7
FH to their forehand · serve +1−3.6±4.4−0.3−3.2

Yevgeny Kafelnikov

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH slice to their backhand · serve +1+5.5±3.1+1.3+4.1
BH slice to the middle · rally+5.2±2.6+2.1+3.2
BH slice to their forehand · rally+5.1±4.0+2.9+2.2
BH slice to the middle · return +1+4.7±2.5−0.2+4.9
FH to their backhand · serve +1+4.1±4.1+1.5+2.6
FH to the middle · serve +1+4.0±2.7+0.4+3.6

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
FH to their forehand · return +1−5.8±5.1−0.1−5.8
BH to their forehand · rally−5.8±4.7−2.5−3.3
FH volley to their backhand · rally−5.2±7.3−6.2+1.0
BH to the middle · rally−4.9±2.6−1.7−3.3
BH volley to their forehand · rally−4.0±7.5+0.7−4.8

Against Yevgeny Kafelnikov-like opponents

Andre Agassi vMatchesServe pts wonReturn pts won
All charted opponents–64.5%38.6%
Players most similar to Yevgeny Kafelnikov9 63.2%43.9%
Yevgeny Kafelnikov (charted head-to-head)9 62.4%38.6%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Richard Gasquet, Tomas Berdych, David Nalbandian, Ivan Ljubicic, Nicolas Kiefer, Arnaud Clement, Thomas Johansson, Wayne Ferreira, Thomas Enqvist. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.

Charted head-to-head