Game plan
Andy Murray v Novak Djokovic
Every number combines what Andy Murray does well with what Novak Djokovic allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Andy Murray's record against Novak Djokovic's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −4.0 on serve, −7.8 on return vs expectation (476 points); head-to-head: −1.3 on serve, +1.9 on return vs expectation (5371 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Andy | Novak |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | +0.14 ±0.03 better than 87% | +0.04 ±0.02 better than 70% |
| Shot selection | −0.45 ±0.05 better than 13% | +0.04 ±0.03 better than 58% |
| Execution | +0.94 ±0.16 better than 95% | +1.17 ±0.10 better than 97% |
| Points left on the table | 2.23 ±0.05 lower than 90% | 2.24 ±0.03 lower than 89% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Structural compatibility
Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Andy Murray +1.21, Novak Djokovic +1.41. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Andy Murray serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Andy wins | v Novak | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 47% | 71% | 69% | 66.3%±1.6 | 60% ▲ |
| Body | 8% | 67% | 58% | 61.4%±3.7 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 46% | 80% | 71% | 76.4%±1.7 | 40% ▼ |
Optimal v Novak Djokovic: +0.4±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +5.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Andy wins | v Novak | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 47% | 77% | 69% | 73.4%±1.8 | 42% ▼ |
| Body | 8% | 61% | 57% | 54.9%±4.0 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 45% | 70% | 69% | 66.1%±1.7 | 58% ▲ |
Optimal v Novak Djokovic: +0.4±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +4.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Novak Djokovic serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Novak wins | v Andy | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 46% | 74% | 70% | 71.0%±1.5 | 42% ▼ |
| Body | 9% | 67% | 59% | 62.9%±3.3 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 45% | 76% | 76% | 76.7%±1.5 | 58% ▲ |
Optimal v Andy Murray: +0.5±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +3.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Novak wins | v Andy | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 51% | 74% | 71% | 71.9%±1.6 | 47% ▼ |
| Body | 9% | 63% | 57% | 57.5%±3.8 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 40% | 73% | 68% | 68.7%±1.8 | 53% ▲ |
Optimal v Andy Murray: +0.8±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Andy Murray returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Novak | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 42% | +4.3 | +1.4 | −0.4 | +5.2±0.8 |
| FH down the line | 17% | +1.7 | +6.2 | −0.2 | +7.6±1.7 |
| FH crosscourt | 16% | +5.5 | +1.9 | +0.6 | +8.0±1.8 |
| FH slice through the middle | 14% | −4.2 | +2.7 | +1.0 | −0.5±1.1 |
| FH slice down the line | 5% | −4.3 | +3.1 | −0.1 | −1.3±2.1 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +3.2±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (5314 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Novak | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 27% | +8.8 | +4.6 | +0.7 | +14.0±1.2 |
| BH through the middle | 25% | +6.4 | +2.2 | +0.5 | +9.1±0.9 |
| BH slice through the middle | 25% | −4.2 | +2.7 | +0.5 | −1.0±0.9 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 15% | +0.5 | +2.4 | +1.0 | +3.9±1.3 |
| BH slice down the line | 4% | −8.4 | +0.9 | −1.0 | −8.5±2.5 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +7.8±1.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (4642 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Novak | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 43% | −3.5 | +1.6 | +0.3 | −1.6±1.2 |
| FH down the line | 28% | −1.8 | +2.5 | −2.6 | −1.8±2.4 |
| FH crosscourt | 23% | −0.2 | +1.9 | −1.6 | +0.1±2.5 |
| BH through the middle | 3% | +0.1 | −1.3 | +0.6 | −0.6±1.5 |
| BH inside-in | 1% | +2.5 | +2.7 | +0.9 | +6.1±2.4 |
Lean BH inside-in: +7.3±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1297 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Novak | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 57% | +1.0 | +1.7 | +0.9 | +3.6±1.1 |
| BH through the middle | 29% | −2.9 | +0.1 | +0.6 | −2.2±1.0 |
| BH down the line | 7% | −0.2 | +2.4 | ±0.0 | +2.2±3.3 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 3% | −4.0 | −1.9 | +0.7 | −5.2±2.1 |
| BH slice through the middle | 2% | −11.3 | −1.4 | −0.6 | −13.3±2.0 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +2.5±0.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (2339 returns charted)
Novak Djokovic returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Andy | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 49% | +4.3 | +0.5 | +1.2 | +5.9±0.7 |
| FH down the line | 20% | +1.7 | +1.9 | +0.2 | +3.9±1.6 |
| FH crosscourt | 18% | +5.5 | +0.3 | +1.3 | +7.1±1.7 |
| FH slice through the middle | 8% | −4.2 | +1.5 | +1.4 | −1.3±1.2 |
| FH slice down the line | 2% | −4.3 | +1.4 | +1.1 | −1.8±2.7 |
| BH inside-in | 0% | +7.7 | +2.5 | +0.9 | +11.1±2.8 |
Lean BH inside-in: +6.2±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (11120 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Andy | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 38% | +6.4 | +0.5 | −0.1 | +6.8±0.9 |
| BH crosscourt | 24% | +8.8 | +1.4 | +0.9 | +11.1±1.5 |
| BH slice through the middle | 15% | −4.2 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −4.8±1.0 |
| BH down the line | 11% | +4.2 | +2.2 | +0.1 | +6.5±2.4 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 8% | +0.5 | −1.0 | +0.5 | ±0.0±1.6 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +6.3±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (9500 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Andy | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 54% | −3.5 | +1.3 | +0.7 | −1.4±1.1 |
| FH down the line | 28% | −1.8 | +1.5 | +2.6 | +2.3±2.3 |
| FH crosscourt | 16% | −0.2 | +1.5 | +1.5 | +2.8±2.4 |
| BH through the middle | 1% | +0.1 | −1.2 | +1.1 | +0.1±1.5 |
| BH inside-out | 1% | +0.9 | −0.4 | +1.3 | +1.8±3.2 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +2.5±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (2581 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Andy | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 43% | +1.0 | +1.4 | +1.8 | +4.3±1.0 |
| BH through the middle | 43% | −2.9 | +0.7 | +1.1 | −1.0±0.7 |
| BH down the line | 10% | −0.2 | +2.0 | +1.3 | +3.1±2.5 |
| FH through the middle | 2% | −2.9 | −0.9 | +0.7 | −3.1±1.8 |
| FH inside-out | 1% | +1.0 | +0.1 | +2.6 | +3.6±2.9 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +2.7±0.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (6220 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.
Andy Murray
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smash to the middle · rally | +7.9±4.3 | +1.6 | +6.3 |
| FH slice to their forehand · return | +7.3±2.3 | +4.2 | +3.0 |
| BH volley to their forehand · serve +1 | +7.1±5.3 | +5.7 | +1.4 |
| FH volley to their backhand · serve +1 | +6.1±4.5 | +2.3 | +3.8 |
| BH drop shot to their backhand · rally | +5.8±3.8 | +3.0 | +2.8 |
| FH slice to the middle · rally | +5.1±1.4 | +3.6 | +1.4 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH drop shot to their backhand · serve +1 | −7.6±4.9 | −5.7 | −1.9 |
| FH lob to their backhand · rally | −3.8±4.3 | −0.5 | −3.4 |
| FH drop shot to their forehand · serve +1 | −3.7±5.2 | −3.2 | −0.4 |
| FH lob to their backhand · return +1 | −3.5±4.4 | −2.1 | −1.4 |
| BH volley to their backhand · serve +1 | −3.0±4.5 | −0.8 | −2.2 |
Novak Djokovic
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH volley to the middle · serve +1 | +10.2±4.4 | +6.4 | +3.8 |
| BH volley to their forehand · serve +1 | +9.6±4.9 | +6.2 | +3.4 |
| FH volley to their backhand · serve +1 | +8.1±4.4 | +4.7 | +3.3 |
| BH volley to the middle · rally | +6.9±4.0 | +5.2 | +1.7 |
| FH slice to the middle · return +1 | +6.1±2.1 | +2.8 | +3.3 |
| FH drop shot to their backhand · rally | +5.3±4.2 | −1.1 | +6.4 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to their forehand · return | −4.4±2.5 | −1.5 | −2.9 |
| FH lob to the middle · rally | −3.5±3.2 | −2.5 | −0.9 |
| Smash to the middle · rally | −3.0±3.8 | −1.0 | −2.1 |
| BH slice to their backhand · serve +1 | −2.0±1.8 | −2.9 | +0.9 |
| BH to their forehand · return +1 | −2.0±1.9 | +0.4 | −2.4 |
Against Novak Djokovic-like opponents
| Andy Murray v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 63.7% | 38.1% |
| Players most similar to Novak Djokovic | 4 | 57.1% | 30.7% |
| Novak Djokovic (charted head-to-head) | 30 | 58.3% | 37.5% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Learner Tien, Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, Karen Khachanov, Laslo Djere, Pablo Andujar, Mikhail Kukushkin, Denis Istomin, Nikolay Davydenko. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.
Charted head-to-head
- Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray Doha F · Hard · 7 Jan 2017
- Andy Murray v Novak Djokovic Tour Finals F · Hard · 20 Nov 2016
- Andy Murray v Novak Djokovic Rome Masters F · Clay · 15 May 2016
- Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray Australian Open F · Hard · 31 Jan 2016
- Andy Murray v Novak Djokovic Paris F · Hard · 8 Nov 2015
- Andy Murray v Novak Djokovic Shanghai Masters SF · Hard · 17 Oct 2015
- Andy Murray v Novak Djokovic Canada Masters F · Hard · 16 Aug 2015
- Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray Roland Garros SF · Clay · 5 Jun 2015
- Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray Miami Masters F · Hard · 5 Apr 2015
- Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray Indian Wells Masters SF · Hard · 21 Mar 2015
- Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray Australian Open F · Hard · 1 Feb 2015
- Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray Beijing SF · Hard · 4 Oct 2014
- Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray US Open QF · Hard · 3 Sep 2014
- Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray Miami Masters QF · Hard · 26 Mar 2014
- Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray Wimbledon F · Grass · 7 Jul 2013
- Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray Australian Open F · Hard · 27 Jan 2013
- Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray Tour Finals RR · Hard · 7 Nov 2012
- Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray Shanghai Masters F · Hard · 8 Oct 2012
- Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray US Open F · Hard · 9 Sep 2012
- Andy Murray v Novak Djokovic Olympics SF · Grass · 3 Aug 2012
- Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray Miami Masters F · Hard · 1 Apr 2012
- Andy Murray v Novak Djokovic Dubai SF · Hard · 27 Feb 2012
- Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray Australian Open SF · Hard · 27 Jan 2012
- Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray Cincinnati Masters F · Hard · 21 Aug 2011
- Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray Rome Masters SF · Clay · 13 May 2011
- Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray Australian Open F · Hard · 30 Jan 2011
- Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray Miami Masters F · Hard · 5 Apr 2009
- Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray Cincinnati Masters F · Hard · 3 Aug 2008
- Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray Miami Masters SF · Hard · 30 Mar 2007
- Andy Murray v Novak Djokovic Indian Wells SF · Hard · 5 Mar 2007