RallyIQ

Game plan

Daniil Medvedev v Hubert Hurkacz

Every number combines what Daniil Medvedev does well with what Hubert Hurkacz allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Daniil Medvedev wins, best of 3 47%90%: 25%–71% · best of 5: 47%
Serve points won 65.1% / 65.6% Daniil / Hubert · tour 63.5%
Strengths only, no similarity priors 56%serve 66.1% / 64.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. Both were charted enough in the last three seasons, so those carry the most weight. The result is then nudged by Daniil Medvedev's record against Hubert Hurkacz's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −2.2 on serve, +1.3 on return vs expectation (3875 points); head-to-head: +0.7 on serve, −5.5 on return vs expectation (1163 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

CareerDaniilHubert
Direction choice+0.01 ±0.04
better than 58%		+0.09 ±0.02
better than 79%
Shot selection−0.06 ±0.04
better than 46%		+0.14 ±0.05
better than 68%
Execution+1.24 ±0.16
better than 98%		−0.38 ±0.15
better than 49%
Points left on the table2.31 ±0.06
lower than 84%		2.49 ±0.04
lower than 62%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Daniil Medvedev +0.85, Hubert Hurkacz −0.22. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Daniil Medvedev serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowDaniil winsv HubertMatchupOptimal
Wide49%74%73%74.6%±1.541% ▼
Body4%63%63%62.9%±4.90% ▼
T46%78%77%80.2%±1.559% ▲

Optimal v Hubert Hurkacz: +0.5±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +3.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowDaniil winsv HubertMatchupOptimal
Wide49%78%73%78.1%±1.640% ▼
Body5%60%64%61.5%±5.20% ▼
T47%74%73%75.3%±1.760% ▲

Optimal v Hubert Hurkacz: +0.6±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Hubert Hurkacz serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowHubert winsv DaniilMatchupOptimal
Wide47%78%69%74.6%±1.560% ▲
Body5%63%58%58.2%±4.70% ▼
T48%80%71%76.0%±1.740% ▼

Optimal v Daniil Medvedev: +0.6±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowHubert winsv DaniilMatchupOptimal
Wide53%78%69%75.4%±1.744% ▼
Body4%66%58%61.1%±5.00% ▼
T42%76%70%73.6%±1.856% ▲

Optimal v Daniil Medvedev: +0.2±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Daniil Medvedev returning

1st serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv HubertValue
FH through the middle47%+4.3+1.4−2.1+3.5±0.9
FH crosscourt22%+5.5+3.4−6.6+2.3±1.7
FH down the line15%+1.7−0.5−6.7−5.6±2.0
FH slice through the middle10%−4.2−1.1−2.8−8.1±1.1
FH slice down the line4%−4.3−0.1−7.6−12.0±2.3

Lean FH through the middle: +3.7±0.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (5958 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv HubertValue
BH through the middle48%+6.4+3.1−1.0+8.5±0.9
BH crosscourt25%+8.8+2.4−2.7+8.5±1.4
BH down the line10%+4.2+1.6−5.6+0.2±2.4
BH slice through the middle9%−4.2−1.9−4.9−11.0±1.3
BH slice crosscourt4%+0.5−4.5−6.9−10.9±2.0

Lean BH through the middle: +4.4±0.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (4981 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv HubertValue
FH through the middle50%−3.5+1.6−1.0−2.9±1.3
FH crosscourt27%−0.2−1.0−2.9−4.2±2.6
FH down the line17%−1.8+1.7−4.1−4.2±3.0
FH slice through the middle2%−12.7−0.8−3.7−17.2±2.3
BH through the middle2%+0.1+1.2−0.7+0.6±1.5

Lean BH through the middle: +4.4±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (1558 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv HubertValue
BH through the middle51%−2.9+2.9−0.7−0.7±0.8
BH crosscourt38%+1.0+1.9−1.8+1.2±1.2
BH down the line9%−0.2+1.2−5.0−3.9±3.1
FH through the middle1%−2.9−1.0−1.0−4.9±1.8
FH inside-in1%+0.6−2.8−2.9−5.2±3.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.5±0.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (2951 returns charted)

Hubert Hurkacz returning

1st serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv DaniilValue
FH through the middle44%+4.3−0.4+1.6+5.4±0.8
FH crosscourt24%+5.5−2.3±0.0+3.2±1.8
FH down the line21%+1.7−2.0−0.7−1.0±1.9
FH slice through the middle5%−4.2−2.1+1.1−5.2±1.3
FH slice crosscourt5%−4.3−4.4+0.2−8.6±2.1

Lean FH through the middle: +3.4±0.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (6555 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv DaniilValue
BH through the middle34%+6.4−0.2+2.0+8.2±0.9
BH crosscourt26%+8.8−0.1+1.0+9.7±1.5
BH slice through the middle14%−4.2−3.5−0.6−8.3±1.1
BH down the line10%+4.2−0.9+1.1+4.4±2.6
BH slice crosscourt10%+0.5−6.1−2.6−8.2±1.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.4±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (6287 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv DaniilValue
FH through the middle44%−3.5+1.4+1.1−1.0±1.2
FH down the line26%−1.8−1.5−0.3−3.6±2.7
FH crosscourt26%−0.2−3.3−1.3−4.8±2.4
FH slice through the middle2%−12.7−3.7±0.0−16.3±2.4
FH slice crosscourt1%−12.5−3.9−1.1−17.4±2.7

Lean FH through the middle: +2.2±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1676 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv DaniilValue
BH crosscourt42%+1.0−1.1+0.6+0.5±1.2
BH through the middle37%−2.9±0.0+0.4−2.5±0.9
BH down the line14%−0.2+0.5+1.6+1.8±2.9
FH through the middle2%−2.9−1.7+1.1−3.5±1.8
BH slice through the middle1%−11.3−1.4−0.4−13.1±2.4

Lean BH down the line: +2.7±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (3803 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Daniil Medvedev

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
FH to the middle · return +1+4.1±1.1+2.4+1.7
BH volley to their forehand · serve +1+4.0±5.5+6.3−2.4
BH drop shot to their forehand · serve +1+3.9±4.5+0.1+3.8
Smash to their backhand · rally+3.6±3.6+1.7+1.9
FH to their forehand · rally+3.4±0.6+2.2+1.2
FH volley to the middle · rally+3.3±5.0+3.6−0.3

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH slice to their forehand · return−14.1±2.6−3.9−10.2
BH slice to their backhand · return−9.8±1.9−3.4−6.4
FH slice to their backhand · return−7.7±2.1−0.8−6.9
FH slice to their backhand · return +1−6.5±3.1−2.4−4.1
FH slice to their forehand · return−6.2±2.2−1.7−4.5

Hubert Hurkacz

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
FH volley to the middle · serve +1+11.8±4.0+1.9+9.9
FH volley to their backhand · serve +1+7.7±4.0+0.2+7.5
FH drop shot to their forehand · rally+4.4±4.7+5.1−0.7
Smash to their backhand · rally+3.9±3.3+1.7+2.1
FH lob to the middle · rally+3.5±3.4−0.3+3.9
FH slice to the middle · rally+3.4±1.4+2.8+0.6

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH slice to their forehand · return−13.8±2.5−9.9−4.0
BH drop shot to their forehand · serve +1−9.4±5.1−5.7−3.7
BH slice to their backhand · return−8.0±1.6−5.7−2.4
FH slice to their backhand · return−7.2±2.4−6.2−1.0
BH to their forehand · return +1−6.5±2.2−3.9−2.6

Against Hubert Hurkacz-like opponents

Daniil Medvedev vMatchesServe pts wonReturn pts won
All charted opponents–66.1%39.4%
Players most similar to Hubert Hurkacz21 62.8%40.6%
Hubert Hurkacz (charted head-to-head)5 67.5%29.7%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Learner Tien, Joao Fonseca, Ugo Humbert, Sebastian Korda, Karen Khachanov, Alexei Popyrin, Laslo Djere, David Goffin, Dominic Thiem, Robin Soderling. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.

Charted head-to-head