Game plan

Daniil Medvedev v Juncheng Shang

Every number combines what Daniil Medvedev does well with what Juncheng Shang allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Daniil Medvedev wins, best of 3 78%90%: 49%–94% · best of 5: 83%

Serve points won 64.6% / 58.6% Daniil / Juncheng · tour 63.5%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 74%serve 64.5% / 59.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. Both were charted enough in the last three seasons, so those carry the most weight. The result is then nudged by Daniil Medvedev's record against Juncheng Shang's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −0.5 on serve, +3.6 on return vs expectation (529 points); head-to-head: +5.7 on serve, +9.5 on return vs expectation (97 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Daniil	Juncheng
Direction choice	+0.01 ±0.04 better than 58%	−0.21 ±0.13 better than 13%
Shot selection	−0.06 ±0.04 better than 46%	+0.51 ±0.30 better than 94%
Execution	+1.24 ±0.16 better than 98%	−0.47 ±0.59 better than 46%
Points left on the table	2.31 ±0.06 lower than 84%	3.00 ±0.24 lower than 19%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Daniil Medvedev serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Daniil wins	v Juncheng	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	74%	70%	71.8%±5.6	41% ▼
Body	4%	63%	65%	65.3%±11.0	0% ▼
T	46%	78%	78%	80.7%±4.9	59% ▲

Optimal v Juncheng Shang: +0.5±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Daniil wins	v Juncheng	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	78%	69%	74.2%±5.9	40% ▼
Body	5%	60%	63%	59.7%±10.2	0% ▼
T	47%	74%	73%	75.4%±6.3	60% ▲

Optimal v Juncheng Shang: +0.6±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Juncheng Shang serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Juncheng wins	v Daniil	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	35%	74%	69%	70.1%±7.6	48% ▲
Body	13%	60%	58%	55.1%±9.7	0% ▼
T	52%	67%	71%	61.5%±6.3	52%

Optimal v Daniil Medvedev: +0.7±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +6.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Juncheng wins	v Daniil	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	65%	69%	60.5%±6.2	42% ▼
Body	16%	68%	58%	63.9%±9.4	16%
T	29%	72%	70%	70.1%±8.5	42% ▲

Optimal v Daniil Medvedev: +0.5±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +6.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Daniil Medvedev returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juncheng	Value
FH through the middle	47%	+4.3	+1.4	+1.0	+6.6±2.2
FH crosscourt	22%	+5.5	+3.4	−0.2	+8.7±3.1
FH down the line	15%	+1.7	−0.5	+1.2	+2.3±3.4
FH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−1.1	−1.2	−6.5±1.7
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	−0.1	±0.0	−4.4±1.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.3±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (5958 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juncheng	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.4	+3.1	+3.5	+13.0±1.9
BH crosscourt	25%	+8.8	+2.4	+4.4	+15.6±2.7
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	+1.6	−0.2	+5.6±3.8
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−1.9	+0.2	−5.9±2.0
BH slice crosscourt	4%	+0.5	−4.5	+1.5	−2.4±2.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.0±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (4981 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juncheng	Value
FH through the middle	50%	−3.5	+1.6	−0.3	−2.1±2.3
FH crosscourt	27%	−0.2	−1.0	−2.2	−3.5±3.6
FH down the line	17%	−1.8	+1.7	−0.6	−0.7±4.1
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	−0.8	±0.0	−13.5±1.7
BH through the middle	2%	+0.1	+1.2	+1.1	+2.4±2.0

Lean BH through the middle: +4.9±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1558 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juncheng	Value
BH through the middle	51%	−2.9	+2.9	+1.1	+1.2±1.9
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.0	+1.9	+0.4	+3.3±2.5
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	+1.2	+1.5	+2.5±4.4
FH through the middle	1%	−2.9	−1.0	−0.3	−4.1±2.4
FH inside-in	1%	+0.6	−2.8	−2.2	−4.5±4.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.4±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (2951 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Juncheng Shang returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniil	Value
FH through the middle	53%	+4.3	+1.4	+1.6	+7.2±2.2
FH down the line	20%	+1.7	−0.5	±0.0	+1.2±3.5
FH crosscourt	16%	+5.5	+1.6	−0.7	+6.3±3.3
FH slice through the middle	7%	−4.2	−1.0	+1.1	−4.2±1.5
FH slice crosscourt	4%	−4.3	−0.5	−0.7	−5.6±2.0

Lean FH through the middle: +2.6±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (166 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniil	Value
BH through the middle	46%	+6.4	+0.8	+2.0	+9.1±2.1
BH crosscourt	26%	+8.8	+0.5	+1.1	+10.4±3.0
BH down the line	14%	+4.2	−1.7	+1.0	+3.6±3.5
BH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−1.3	−0.6	−6.1±1.7
BH slice down the line	4%	−8.4	−0.2	−2.6	−11.2±2.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.1±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (175 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniil	Value
FH through the middle	60%	−3.5	+1.2	+1.1	−1.2±2.2
FH crosscourt	32%	−0.2	−2.2	−0.3	−2.7±3.3
FH down the line	8%	−1.8	−1.2	−1.3	−4.2±2.5

Lean FH through the middle: +0.7±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (65 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniil	Value
BH through the middle	52%	−2.9	−0.7	+0.4	−3.2±1.9
BH crosscourt	20%	+1.0	+2.3	+1.6	+4.9±2.7
BH down the line	18%	−0.2	+1.3	+0.6	+1.7±3.6
FH inside-in	5%	+0.6	−1.9	−0.3	−1.7±2.6
FH through the middle	5%	−2.9	+0.4	+1.1	−1.4±1.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.4±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (132 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Daniil Medvedev

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+6.5±1.6	+2.9	+3.7
BH to their forehand · return	+5.4±3.4	+2.4	+3.0
FH to the middle · rally	+3.8±1.6	+2.0	+1.8
BH to the middle · rally	+3.5±1.5	+1.2	+2.2
BH to their forehand · rally	+3.1±2.8	+1.3	+1.9
BH to their backhand · return	+2.9±2.4	+1.6	+1.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−4.5±2.6	−2.0	−2.5
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−2.6±2.9	−1.3	−1.3
FH to their backhand · return +1	−2.5±3.1	−0.2	−2.3
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−2.2±2.0	−2.0	−0.2
FH to the middle · serve +1	−0.1±2.1	+0.3	−0.4

Juncheng Shang

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	+4.8±2.6	+4.6	+0.1
BH to the middle · rally	+3.3±1.4	+1.9	+1.4
BH to their forehand · return	+3.1±3.6	+1.6	+1.4
FH to the middle · return	+2.7±1.8	+1.6	+1.1
FH to the middle · serve +1	+2.6±2.0	+0.5	+2.0
BH to the middle · return +1	+2.2±2.0	+1.3	+1.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−3.9±3.8	−2.7	−1.2
FH to their backhand · return	−3.3±3.2	−2.7	−0.6
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−2.0±2.8	−1.8	−0.2
FH to their forehand · return	−1.8±3.5	−0.8	−0.9
BH to their forehand · return +1	−1.7±4.0	+0.9	−2.6

Against Juncheng Shang-like opponents

Daniil Medvedev v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	66.1%	39.4%
Players most similar to Juncheng Shang	3	66.0%	44.1%
Juncheng Shang (charted head-to-head)	1	71.4%	50.0%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Cameron Norrie, Luciano Darderi, Thiago Monteiro, Daniel Elahi Galan, Albert Ramos, Cristian Garin, Federico Delbonis, Pablo Cuevas, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Nicolas Massu. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.

Charted head-to-head

Daniil Medvedev v Juncheng Shang Dubai R32 · Hard · 24 Feb 2026