RallyIQ

Game plan

Daniil Medvedev v Novak Djokovic

Every number combines what Daniil Medvedev does well with what Novak Djokovic allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Daniil Medvedev wins, best of 3 36%90%: 16%–62% · best of 5: 33%
Serve points won 61.3% / 64.0% Daniil / Novak · tour 63.5%
Strengths only, no similarity priors 26%serve 59.8% / 64.8%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. Both were charted enough in the last three seasons, so those carry the most weight. The result is then nudged by Daniil Medvedev's record against Novak Djokovic's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +1.8 on serve, +1.9 on return vs expectation (4586 points); head-to-head: +1.0 on serve, −0.9 on return vs expectation (1874 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

CareerDaniilNovak
Direction choice+0.01 ±0.04
better than 58%		+0.04 ±0.02
better than 70%
Shot selection−0.06 ±0.04
better than 46%		+0.04 ±0.03
better than 58%
Execution+1.24 ±0.16
better than 98%		+1.17 ±0.10
better than 97%
Points left on the table2.31 ±0.06
lower than 84%		2.24 ±0.03
lower than 89%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Daniil Medvedev +1.26, Novak Djokovic +1.68. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Daniil Medvedev serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowDaniil winsv NovakMatchupOptimal
Wide49%74%69%70.3%±1.562% ▲
Body4%63%58%57.3%±4.60% ▼
T46%78%71%74.7%±1.638% ▼

Optimal v Novak Djokovic: +0.4±0.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowDaniil winsv NovakMatchupOptimal
Wide49%78%69%74.8%±1.640% ▼
Body5%60%57%53.5%±4.90% ▼
T47%74%69%70.7%±1.660% ▲

Optimal v Novak Djokovic: +0.6±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Novak Djokovic serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowNovak winsv DaniilMatchupOptimal
Wide46%74%69%70.2%±1.559% ▲
Body9%67%58%62.1%±3.60% ▼
T45%76%71%71.9%±1.641% ▼

Optimal v Daniil Medvedev: +0.5±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowNovak winsv DaniilMatchupOptimal
Wide51%74%69%70.3%±1.647% ▼
Body9%63%58%58.2%±4.00% ▼
T40%73%70%70.6%±1.753% ▲

Optimal v Daniil Medvedev: +0.6±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +1.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Daniil Medvedev returning

1st serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv NovakValue
FH through the middle47%+4.3+1.4−0.4+5.2±0.7
FH crosscourt22%+5.5+3.4+0.6+9.5±1.6
FH down the line15%+1.7−0.5−0.2+0.9±1.7
FH slice through the middle10%−4.2−1.1+1.0−4.3±1.1
FH slice down the line4%−4.3−0.1−0.1−4.4±2.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.5±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (5958 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv NovakValue
BH through the middle48%+6.4+3.1+0.5+9.9±0.7
BH crosscourt25%+8.8+2.4+0.7+11.9±1.2
BH down the line10%+4.2+1.6+0.3+6.1±2.3
BH slice through the middle9%−4.2−1.9+0.5−5.6±1.2
BH slice crosscourt4%+0.5−4.5+1.0−3.0±1.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.6±1.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (4981 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv NovakValue
FH through the middle50%−3.5+1.6+0.3−1.6±1.1
FH crosscourt27%−0.2−1.0−1.6−2.9±2.2
FH down the line17%−1.8+1.7−2.6−2.7±2.7
FH slice through the middle2%−12.7−0.8−0.8−14.3±2.3
BH through the middle2%+0.1+1.2+0.6+1.9±1.4

Lean BH through the middle: +4.3±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (1558 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv NovakValue
BH through the middle51%−2.9+2.9+0.6+0.6±0.8
BH crosscourt38%+1.0+1.9+0.9+3.8±1.2
BH down the line9%−0.2+1.2±0.0+1.1±3.0
FH through the middle1%−2.9−1.0+0.3−3.6±1.7
FH inside-in1%+0.6−2.8−1.6−3.9±3.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.0±0.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (2951 returns charted)

Novak Djokovic returning

1st serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv DaniilValue
FH through the middle49%+4.3+0.5+1.6+6.3±0.7
FH down the line20%+1.7+1.9−0.7+2.9±1.8
FH crosscourt18%+5.5+0.3±0.0+5.8±1.7
FH slice through the middle8%−4.2+1.5+1.1−1.6±1.1
FH slice down the line2%−4.3+1.4−0.7−3.7±2.4
BH inside-in0%+7.7+2.5+1.0+11.2±2.8

Lean BH inside-in: +6.7±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (11120 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv DaniilValue
BH through the middle38%+6.4+0.5+2.0+8.9±0.8
BH crosscourt24%+8.8+1.4+1.0+11.2±1.5
BH slice through the middle15%−4.2−0.2−0.6−5.0±1.0
BH down the line11%+4.2+2.2+1.1+7.5±2.4
BH slice crosscourt8%+0.5−1.0−2.6−3.1±1.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.8±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (9500 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv DaniilValue
FH through the middle54%−3.5+1.3+1.1−1.0±1.0
FH down the line28%−1.8+1.5−0.3−0.6±2.4
FH crosscourt16%−0.2+1.5−1.3±0.0±2.4
BH through the middle1%+0.1−1.2+0.4−0.7±1.5
BH inside-out1%+0.9−0.4+1.6+2.0±3.4

Lean BH inside-out: +2.8±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (2581 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv DaniilValue
BH crosscourt43%+1.0+1.4+0.6+3.1±1.1
BH through the middle43%−2.9+0.7+0.4−1.8±0.8
BH down the line10%−0.2+2.0+1.6+3.3±2.9
FH through the middle2%−2.9−0.9+1.1−2.7±1.8
FH inside-out1%+1.0+0.1−0.3+0.7±3.0

Lean BH down the line: +2.6±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (6220 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Daniil Medvedev

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH volley to their forehand · serve +1+7.7±5.3+6.3+1.4
Smash to the middle · rally+7.2±4.0+0.9+6.3
FH volley to their backhand · serve +1+6.7±4.7+2.9+3.8
BH to the middle · return+3.9±0.5+2.9+1.1
FH volley to the middle · rally+3.6±4.5+3.6±0.0
FH drop shot to their backhand · rally+3.2±4.1+2.8+0.4

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH slice to their forehand · return−5.1±2.6−3.9−1.1
FH lob to their backhand · rally−4.5±4.4−1.1−3.4
FH drop shot to their backhand · serve +1−3.9±4.6−2.0−1.9
BH slice to their backhand · serve +1−3.4±2.3−3.7+0.3
BH slice to their forehand · return +1−2.9±2.9−1.6−1.3

Novak Djokovic

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
FH volley to the middle · serve +1+16.3±4.1+6.4+9.9
FH volley to their backhand · serve +1+12.2±3.9+4.7+7.5
BH volley to the middle · rally+11.6±3.9+5.2+6.4
BH volley to their backhand · serve +1+7.0±4.1+2.6+4.5
BH volley to their forehand · serve +1+6.5±4.6+6.2+0.3
FH volley to the middle · rally+4.3±4.2+1.7+2.6

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH slice to their forehand · return−5.5±2.6−1.5−4.0
BH drop shot to their forehand · rally−5.0±2.9−1.0−4.0
BH drop shot to their forehand · serve +1−3.2±4.4+0.6−3.7
BH slice to their backhand · return−2.8±1.5−0.5−2.4
BH slice to their backhand · serve +1−2.2±2.1−2.9+0.7

Against Novak Djokovic-like opponents

Daniil Medvedev vMatchesServe pts wonReturn pts won
All charted opponents–66.1%39.4%
Players most similar to Novak Djokovic27 66.2%40.1%
Novak Djokovic (charted head-to-head)10 61.2%34.5%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Learner Tien, Alexander Zverev, Karen Khachanov, Laslo Djere, Andy Murray, Pablo Andujar, Mikhail Kukushkin, Denis Istomin, Nikolay Davydenko. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.

Charted head-to-head