Game plan
David Ferrer v Alex De Minaur
Every number combines what David Ferrer does well with what Alex De Minaur allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by David Ferrer's record against Alex De Minaur's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −3.5 on serve, +12.5 on return vs expectation (163 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | David | Alex |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | −0.03 ±0.06 better than 48% | −0.25 ±0.03 better than 9% |
| Shot selection | +0.44 ±0.08 better than 89% | +0.19 ±0.07 better than 72% |
| Execution | +0.21 ±0.29 better than 76% | +0.34 ±0.21 better than 80% |
| Points left on the table | 2.21 ±0.08 lower than 92% | 2.56 ±0.06 lower than 54% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
David Ferrer serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | David wins | v Alex | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 44% | 67% | 70% | 63.3%±3.4 | 44% |
| Body | 20% | 61% | 58% | 55.1%±5.4 | 7% ▼ |
| T | 36% | 67% | 74% | 66.7%±3.7 | 49% ▲ |
Optimal v Alex De Minaur: +0.6±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | David wins | v Alex | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 38% | 67% | 72% | 66.3%±3.7 | 51% ▲ |
| Body | 17% | 57% | 60% | 53.7%±6.2 | 4% ▼ |
| T | 44% | 63% | 69% | 59.8%±3.6 | 45% |
Optimal v Alex De Minaur: +0.7±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +5.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Alex De Minaur serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Alex wins | v David | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 42% | 72% | 74% | 73.0%±3.1 | 55% ▲ |
| Body | 17% | 64% | 60% | 60.0%±5.9 | 3% ▼ |
| T | 41% | 75% | 73% | 73.2%±3.3 | 42% |
Optimal v David Ferrer: +0.7±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Alex wins | v David | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 44% | 73% | 71% | 71.2%±3.3 | 44% |
| Body | 17% | 62% | 62% | 61.0%±6.3 | 4% ▼ |
| T | 39% | 68% | 74% | 70.4%±3.7 | 52% ▲ |
Optimal v David Ferrer: +0.6±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
David Ferrer returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Alex | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 45% | +4.3 | −0.9 | +1.6 | +4.9±1.5 |
| FH crosscourt | 19% | +5.5 | −0.8 | −1.2 | +3.5±3.0 |
| FH down the line | 19% | +1.7 | −0.6 | −0.2 | +0.8±3.0 |
| FH slice through the middle | 10% | −4.2 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −5.3±2.0 |
| FH slice down the line | 5% | −4.3 | +0.5 | −2.0 | −5.8±3.2 |
Lean FH through the middle: +2.7±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1210 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Alex | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 44% | +6.4 | −0.5 | +1.1 | +7.0±1.4 |
| BH crosscourt | 28% | +8.8 | +3.1 | +0.4 | +12.3±2.2 |
| BH slice through the middle | 10% | −4.2 | −0.3 | +1.2 | −3.3±1.9 |
| BH down the line | 10% | +4.2 | +2.6 | +0.3 | +7.1±3.7 |
| BH slice down the line | 4% | −8.4 | −3.6 | −4.0 | −16.0±3.5 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +6.0±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (1260 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Alex | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 40% | −3.5 | +1.5 | +0.2 | −1.8±2.1 |
| FH down the line | 35% | −1.8 | +3.0 | +0.6 | +1.8±3.9 |
| FH crosscourt | 19% | −0.2 | −0.2 | −2.1 | −2.6±3.8 |
| FH slice through the middle | 2% | −12.7 | −1.0 | −0.9 | −14.6±1.8 |
| BH through the middle | 2% | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +1.1±1.1 |
Lean FH down the line: +2.8±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (339 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Alex | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 54% | +1.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | +1.8±1.7 |
| BH through the middle | 33% | −2.9 | −0.1 | +0.8 | −2.2±1.4 |
| BH down the line | 4% | −0.2 | +1.9 | −0.1 | +1.6±4.2 |
| FH through the middle | 4% | −2.9 | +0.4 | +0.2 | −2.3±1.9 |
| FH inside-out | 3% | +1.0 | +2.4 | +0.6 | +3.9±3.2 |
Lean FH inside-out: +3.5±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (945 returns charted)
Alex De Minaur returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v David | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 53% | +4.3 | +2.5 | +1.4 | +8.1±1.3 |
| FH down the line | 21% | +1.7 | +4.4 | +4.2 | +10.3±2.7 |
| FH crosscourt | 11% | +5.5 | −0.5 | −0.6 | +4.4±3.3 |
| FH slice through the middle | 9% | −4.2 | +0.4 | +0.8 | −3.0±2.1 |
| FH slice down the line | 2% | −4.3 | −1.9 | −1.1 | −7.3±3.2 |
Lean FH down the line: +3.8±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (2397 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v David | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 50% | +6.4 | +2.5 | +1.1 | +9.9±1.3 |
| BH crosscourt | 27% | +8.8 | +0.8 | +1.4 | +11.0±2.1 |
| BH down the line | 10% | +4.2 | −2.2 | +1.1 | +3.1±3.6 |
| BH slice through the middle | 7% | −4.2 | −3.3 | +1.5 | −6.0±2.0 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 4% | +0.5 | −2.6 | +2.6 | +0.5±2.7 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +3.3±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (2394 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v David | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 56% | −3.5 | +1.5 | +1.1 | −0.9±2.0 |
| FH down the line | 30% | −1.8 | +0.6 | +1.0 | −0.2±3.8 |
| FH crosscourt | 13% | −0.2 | +0.2 | +1.4 | +1.3±4.3 |
| FH slice through the middle | 2% | −12.7 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −12.9±1.7 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +2.0±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (654 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v David | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 53% | −2.9 | +1.3 | ±0.0 | −1.6±1.3 |
| BH crosscourt | 33% | +1.0 | −0.1 | +1.4 | +2.4±1.9 |
| BH down the line | 9% | −0.2 | +0.8 | −0.1 | +0.5±4.1 |
| FH through the middle | 3% | −2.9 | −0.6 | +1.1 | −2.4±2.1 |
| FH inside-out | 2% | +1.0 | −0.5 | +1.0 | +1.5±3.3 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +2.5±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (1588 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.
David Ferrer
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their forehand · return | +4.5±2.8 | +4.4 | +0.1 |
| Smash to their forehand · rally | +3.1±4.1 | +1.3 | +1.8 |
| BH to the middle · serve +1 | +2.3±1.5 | +1.3 | +1.0 |
| FH to the middle · rally | +2.3±0.9 | +1.2 | +1.1 |
| BH to their backhand · serve +1 | +2.1±1.6 | +0.7 | +1.4 |
| FH volley to their backhand · rally | +1.9±5.3 | +4.5 | −2.6 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH volley to their forehand · rally | −4.0±4.9 | +0.7 | −4.7 |
| BH slice to their forehand · rally | −2.8±2.8 | −2.3 | −0.5 |
| FH to their forehand · return | −2.5±2.9 | −1.0 | −1.5 |
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | −2.3±1.6 | −1.9 | −0.4 |
| FH volley to their forehand · rally | −1.6±5.0 | −3.1 | +1.5 |
Alex De Minaur
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH volley to their forehand · rally | +10.7±4.7 | +4.3 | +6.4 |
| FH to their backhand · return | +5.2±2.0 | +1.6 | +3.6 |
| FH to the middle · return | +4.2±1.1 | +2.1 | +2.1 |
| BH volley to their backhand · rally | +4.1±5.2 | −1.5 | +5.6 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | +3.4±1.9 | +1.9 | +1.5 |
| BH volley to their forehand · rally | +3.0±5.0 | +3.5 | −0.4 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH volley to their backhand · rally | −1.3±5.2 | −5.2 | +3.9 |
| BH slice to the middle · return | −1.1±2.0 | −2.5 | +1.3 |
| BH slice to their backhand · serve +1 | −1.0±2.7 | −0.6 | −0.4 |
| Smash to their forehand · rally | −0.2±4.3 | −3.6 | +3.4 |
| BH to their forehand · return | −0.1±2.7 | −0.4 | +0.3 |
Against Alex De Minaur-like opponents
| David Ferrer v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 58.3% | 36.7% |
| Players most similar to Alex De Minaur | 1 | 60.5% | 51.8% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Jenson Brooksby, Miomir Kecmanovic, Alexandre Muller, Jordan Thompson, Taro Daniel, Ilya Ivashka, Andreas Seppi, Viktor Troicki, Janko Tipsarevic, Hyeon Chung. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.