Game plan

Felix Auger Aliassime v Kevin Anderson

Every number combines what Felix Auger Aliassime does well with what Kevin Anderson allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Felix Auger Aliassime wins, best of 3 59%90%: 37%–79% · best of 5: 61%

Serve points won 68.9% / 67.0% Felix / Kevin · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 59%serve 68.3% / 66.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Felix Auger Aliassime's record against Kevin Anderson's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +8.0 on serve, −6.2 on return vs expectation (210 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Felix	Kevin
Direction choice	+0.01 ±0.05 better than 60%	+0.05 ±0.10 better than 71%
Shot selection	+0.50 ±0.08 better than 93%	+0.16 ±0.17 better than 70%
Execution	−0.79 ±0.31 better than 33%	−0.37 ±0.61 better than 51%
Points left on the table	2.50 ±0.09 lower than 60%	2.35 ±0.13 lower than 78%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Felix Auger Aliassime serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Felix wins	v Kevin	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	78%	76%	80.1%±3.7	45% ▼
Body	8%	66%	67%	69.5%±7.8	0% ▼
T	42%	78%	80%	81.9%±3.5	55% ▲

Optimal v Kevin Anderson: +1.0±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +1.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Felix wins	v Kevin	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	75%	79%	81.3%±3.7	40% ▼
Body	6%	63%	71%	71.7%±8.5	0% ▼
T	47%	76%	76%	79.7%±3.8	60% ▲

Optimal v Kevin Anderson: +0.4±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Kevin Anderson serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Kevin wins	v Felix	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	73%	75%	74.9%±4.0	55% ▲
Body	5%	69%	64%	69.2%±9.2	0% ▼
T	53%	81%	74%	80.2%±3.6	45% ▼

Optimal v Felix Auger Aliassime: +0.4±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Kevin wins	v Felix	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	80%	72%	79.4%±4.3	34% ▼
Body	6%	69%	65%	71.7%±9.4	0% ▼
T	53%	76%	74%	77.1%±3.8	66% ▲

Optimal v Felix Auger Aliassime: +0.6±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +1.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Felix Auger Aliassime returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kevin	Value
FH through the middle	50%	+4.3	−0.6	+1.0	+4.6±2.0
FH down the line	21%	+1.7	−0.9	+1.7	+2.5±3.6
FH crosscourt	20%	+5.5	−1.5	−0.6	+3.3±3.8
FH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	−1.3	+4.9	−0.6±2.3
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	+0.1	−0.9	−5.1±3.1

Lean FH through the middle: +1.4±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (1741 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kevin	Value
BH through the middle	39%	+6.4	+1.5	±0.0	+7.9±2.0
BH crosscourt	34%	+8.8	+0.1	−0.6	+8.2±2.8
BH slice through the middle	11%	−4.2	−0.9	+2.3	−2.8±2.1
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	+1.4	−0.7	+5.0±4.4
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	−1.8	+0.9	−0.4±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.4±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (2015 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kevin	Value
FH through the middle	47%	−3.5	−0.1	±0.0	−3.6±2.5
FH crosscourt	30%	−0.2	−0.5	+0.5	−0.3±4.1
FH down the line	19%	−1.8	−2.0	+0.4	−3.4±4.6
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	+0.3	±0.0	−12.4±1.2
FH slice down the line	1%	−9.4	+0.1	+0.7	−8.7±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.6±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (403 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kevin	Value
BH crosscourt	36%	+1.0	−3.2	−1.1	−3.2±2.6
BH through the middle	34%	−2.9	−1.3	−1.0	−5.2±1.8
FH through the middle	9%	−2.9	−0.2	±0.0	−3.1±2.2
BH down the line	8%	−0.2	+2.0	−3.5	−1.8±4.9
FH inside-in	6%	+0.6	+1.4	+0.5	+2.4±4.3

Lean FH inside-in: +5.6±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1299 returns charted)

Kevin Anderson returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Felix	Value
FH through the middle	41%	+4.3	−1.2	−0.2	+2.8±2.1
FH crosscourt	29%	+5.5	−0.2	−0.6	+4.7±3.7
FH down the line	16%	+1.7	+4.5	−3.3	+2.8±3.7
FH slice through the middle	8%	−4.2	−1.5	−1.3	−7.0±2.1
FH slice down the line	3%	−4.3	−0.2	−1.0	−5.5±2.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.6±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (469 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Felix	Value
BH through the middle	42%	+6.4	−1.2	+0.6	+5.8±1.9
BH crosscourt	19%	+8.8	−0.2	−0.6	+8.0±2.9
BH slice through the middle	13%	−4.2	+1.3	−2.0	−5.0±2.2
BH down the line	12%	+4.2	+1.2	−1.4	+4.1±4.3
BH slice crosscourt	8%	+0.5	+1.1	−2.6	−1.0±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.9±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (504 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Felix	Value
FH through the middle	52%	−3.5	−0.3	−0.3	−4.1±2.4
FH crosscourt	29%	−0.2	−1.8	−5.6	−7.7±4.0
FH down the line	18%	−1.8	−0.2	−2.8	−4.8±4.1

Lean FH through the middle: +1.2±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (136 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Felix	Value
BH through the middle	44%	−2.9	+0.9	+0.1	−1.9±1.9
BH crosscourt	40%	+1.0	+1.7	−1.5	+1.2±2.6
BH down the line	11%	−0.2	−2.6	+0.3	−2.5±4.5
BH slice through the middle	3%	−11.3	−1.3	−0.3	−12.9±1.8
FH through the middle	2%	−2.9	+0.5	−0.3	−2.7±1.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.3±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (249 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Felix Auger Aliassime

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+4.9±4.4	+2.5	+2.4
FH slice to the middle · return	+4.2±2.3	−0.5	+4.7
BH to their forehand · return +1	+2.3±4.3	−1.6	+3.9
BH to their forehand · rally	+2.0±3.1	−0.8	+2.8
BH to the middle · rally	+1.9±1.4	−0.1	+2.1
BH slice to the middle · return	+1.5±2.0	−0.2	+1.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their backhand · return +1	−3.8±2.4	−2.1	−1.7
BH to their backhand · return	−2.5±2.3	−1.1	−1.5
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−2.4±2.2	−0.2	−2.1
BH slice to their backhand · return	−1.8±2.7	−2.1	+0.3
FH to their forehand · return +1	−1.7±3.2	−1.3	−0.4

Kevin Anderson

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return +1	+0.9±3.2	+0.6	+0.3
FH to the middle · return +1	+0.7±2.3	+0.3	+0.4
FH to the middle · serve +1	+0.4±2.1	±0.0	+0.4
BH to the middle · rally	+0.1±1.4	−0.7	+0.8
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−0.3±2.5	−1.0	+0.7
BH to their forehand · return +1	−0.4±4.4	−0.6	+0.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−4.7±4.0	−2.9	−1.7
FH to their backhand · return +1	−4.3±3.0	−0.9	−3.5
BH slice to the middle · rally	−3.8±2.1	−1.5	−2.2
FH to their backhand · rally	−3.5±1.8	−3.0	−0.4
BH to their forehand · rally	−3.2±3.1	−2.7	−0.4

Against Kevin Anderson-like opponents

Felix Auger Aliassime v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	65.8%	34.5%
Players most similar to Kevin Anderson	1	76.9%	25.2%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Zhizhen Zhang, Ethan Quinn, Alexei Popyrin, Zizou Bergs, Borna Coric, Nick Kyrgios, Sam Querrey, Tomas Berdych, Andy Roddick. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.